How much does short-run economic “DNA” persist across interruptions?

One of the current macro puzzles is that we keep on receiving good labor market reports during a time of monetary and credit tightening.  Which is the missing “dark matter” variable that helps to explain this?

One general observation, stressed by Conor Sen, is simply that we don’t have real macro data or macro models for pandemics or post-pandemic recoveries.  I agree, but what exactly might be the missing key variable(s)?

If we rewind to say February 2020, might there have been favorable conditions for further economic growth, conditions that implied some degree of momentum but no tendency toward a destructive Minsky moment?  And were those favorable conditions somehow “frozen in amber” during the pandemic, to be thawed, taken out, and reconstituted during the recovery and subsequent growth period?

How exactly does one freeze and then thaw out initial macro conditions during a pandemic?  What exactly would it be that is happening, as might be expressed in a simple model?  Is there some kind of “macro accelerator” that is carried over across time?  Is it a “previously processed working out of excess” that remains in place during the pandemic recovery?  (One tweet by Conor, which I don’t at the moment find, seemed to raise this as one possibility.)

What else?

Comments

Comments for this post are closed