Will we see less comovement in global economic growth?

That is the question behind my latest Bloomberg column.  China is now, and looking forward, less of a common growth driver around the world.  Oil price shocks may not be less important for humanitarian outcomes, but they matter less for many of the largest economies.  America is now an oil exporter, and the EU just made some major adjustments in response to the Russia shock.  More renewable energy is coming on-line, most of all solar.

The column closes with this:

In this new world, with these major common shocks neutered, a country’s prosperity will be more dependent on national policies than on global trends. Culture and social trust will matter more too, as will openness to innovation — and, as fertility rates remain low or decline, so will a country’s ability to handle immigration. A country that cannot repopulate itself with peaceful and productive immigrants is going to see its economy shrink in relative terms, and probably experience a lot of bumps on the way down.

At the same time, excuses for a lack of prosperity will be harder to come by. The world will not be deglobalized, but it will be somewhat de-risked.

Dare we hope that these new arrangements will produce better results than the old?

Or perhaps a more general rising tide was the only way many countries were going to make progress?