The most important decision of the Trump administration?

It is finally getting some publicity.  Of course I am referring to the AI training deals with Saudi Arabia and UAE.  Here is an overview NYT article, and here is one sentence:

One Trump administration official, who declined to be named because he was not authorized to speak publicly, said that with the G42 deal, American policymakers were making a choice that could mean the most powerful A.I. training facility in 2029 would be in the United Arab Emirates, rather than the United States.

And:

But Trump officials worried that if the United States continued to limit the Emirates’ access to American technology, the Persian Gulf nation would try Chinese alternatives.

Of course Saudi and the UAE have plenty of energy, including oil, solar, and the ability to put up nuclear quickly.  We can all agree that it might be better to put these data centers on US territory, but of course the NIMBYs will not let us build at the required speeds.  Not doing these deals could mean ceding superintelligence capabilities to China first.  Or letting other parties move in and take advantage of the abilities of the Gulf states to build out energy supplies quickly.

In any case, imagine that soon the world’s smartest and wisest philosopher will soon again be in Arabic lands.

We seem to be moving to a world where there will be four major AI powers — adding Saudi and UAE — rather than just two, namely the US and China.  But if energy is what is scarce here, perhaps we were headed for additional AI powers anyway, and best for the US to be in on the deal?

Who really will have de facto final rights of control in these deals?  Plug pulling abilities?  What will the actual balance of power and influence look like?  Exactly what role will the US private sector play?  Will Saudi and the UAE then have to procure nuclear weapons to guard the highly valuable data centers?  Will Saudi and the UAE simply become the most powerful and influential nations in the Middle East and perhaps somewhat beyond?

I don’t have the answers to those questions.  If I were president I suppose I would be doing these deals, but it is very difficult to analyze all of the relevant factors.  The variance of outcomes is large, and I have very little confidence in anyone’s judgments here, my own included.

Few people are shrieking about this, either positively or negatively, but it could be the series of decisions that settles our final opinion of the second Trump presidency.