That was then, this is now

My prediction from 2021:

If Russia and Belarus became a single political unit, there would be only a thin band of land, called the Suwalki Gap, connecting the Baltics to the rest of the European Union. Unfortunately, that same piece of territory would stand in the way of the new, larger Russia connecting with the now-cut off Russian region of Kaliningrad. Over the long term, could the Baltics maintain their independence? If not, the European Union would show it is entirely a toothless entity, unable to guarantee the sovereignty of its members.

Even if there were no formal political union between Russia and Belarus, the territorial continuity and integrity of the EU could soon be up for grabs. The EU has more at stake in an independent Belarus than it likes to admit.

Here is the Bloomberg column from that time.  I had always thought such an altercation would occur before Russia moved on Ukraine, but of course that prediction turned out to be wrong.  My view was that Putin would first seek to weaken NATO, and Ukraine would be closer to the end of the menu than the beginning.  In any case, I have been saying to some friends lately that, in history, the Trump presidency will (that is will, not should) be judged by how he handles the eastern European “situation.”  Do note by the way that the recent Russian drones were launched from Belarus.