Category: Science

The Right speaks sense on global warming

The scientific debate over global warming is not so much over whether anthropogenic emissions will affect the climate. Rather it is over the nature and magnitude of the likely effects. Even the most ardent global warming skeptics within the scientific community believe that the increased accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will have some effect. The policy question, then, is what (if any) measures are justified to prevent or mitigate such effects.

Most on the "right" argue that the best response is to do little or nothing. Whlie some advocate various "no regrets" policies to improve the efficiency of energy markets (and perhaps pave the way for alternative fuels) — as I did here — few conservatives, libertarians, or other free-market advocates believe the most reliable climate forecasts justify drastic measures to suppress the use of carbon-based fuels. The costs of such measures, many argue, are likely to swamp the costs of climate change, and more direct measures to address global ills that could be exacerbated by climate change (disease, flooding, weather extremes, etc.) would be far more cost-effective than reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

As an analytical matter, these assessments are probably correct — it is hard to justify one Kyoto on ecoomic grounds, let alone the dozen or so that would be necessary to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere — but that does not mean the proper "free market" climate policy is to "do nothing."

If property rights lie at the heart of free market environmentalism, than FME advocates should think seriously about the normative implications of human-enhanced climate changes that could disproportionately harm those portions of the world that have (at least thus far) contributed least to the problem. Even if a modest warming were, on balance, beneficial, the impacts would not be uniform. It may well be, as some argue, that increases in crop productivity and reduced energy costs in temperate regions will be greater than the costs to tropical regions, but this does not address the property rights concern absent some system whereby industrialized nations would compensate or indemnify less-developed nations. No such system exists — nor is it likely that existing international institutions could implement such a system — but that does not mean it would not be the first-best approach to climate change from an FME perspective.

I posed this issue to several of my FME colleagues. PERC Reports published the resulting dialogue here. I welcome additional comments below.

That is from Jonathan Adler, here is the link.

Yes, dogs can communicate with you

…a raft of experiments by Mr. Csányi’s team and another led by Michael Tomasello of the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, in Leipzig, Germany, showed that dogs were far more skilled then either chimps or wolves at using human social cues to find food. Those results left researchers with this question: If dogs can pick up on human cues, do they turn the tables and put out cues for humans to understand?

To find out, Mr. Csányi and Réka Polgárdi, a graduate student, went to the homes of Budapest’s many dog owners. After introducing the researchers to the dogs, the owners would leave the room. Then the dogs would watch Mr. Csányi hide a piece of food somewhere inaccessible to them. When the owners returned, the dogs would run or glance back and forth from master to hiding place, clearly signaling its location. More-recent experiments substituted nonfood objects and had similar results, which suggests the dogs may be placing themselves in their owner’s shoes, and realizing that the humans are ignorant of the object’s location.

The Hungarian researchers also discovered that dogs excel at imitating humans. In one of the laboratories down the hall from Mr. Csányi’s office, Zsófia Virányi, a post-doctoral researcher, demonstrates with Tódor, an enthusiastic little mutt that she hand-raised to serve as a member of a control group for another experiment. Tódor sits attentively as Ms. Virányi spins around in a circle and comes to a stop. "Csinal!" or "you do it!" she says, at which Tódor does a little 360 on the tiled floor and lets out an enthusiastic bark. He easily imitates Ms. Virányi’s bowing and lifting an arm (or paw, in his case).

Here is the full story, which contains much, much more.

Amish futurists

The title of the post is not an oxymoron.  The Amish have been enthusiastic adopters of genetically modified crops.  Ironically, the higher productivity of the crop substitutes for the fact that the Amish harvest it by hand.  Less ironically the GM crops use fewer pesticides and herbicides.

Amish scholars say genetically enhanced
crops are not inconsistent with the simple life that is central to Amish
beliefs because it helps them continue their ties
to agriculture, allowing families to
work together.

Hat tip to Stewart Brand’s recent essay Environmental Heresies which also contains this insight on a question that has long bothered me.

Why was water fluoridization rejected by the political right and
“frankenfood” by the political left? The answer, I suspect, is that
fluoridization came from government and genetically modified (GM) crops
from corporations. If the origins had been reversed–as they could have
been–the positions would be reversed, too.

New blog project: avian flu

I have started a new blog project, this time on avian flu.  Go visit Avianflu.typepad.com.  If you write a blog, and enjoy MR, please link to this new endeavor, if only as a courtesy.

Avian flu looms as a real danger, so I thought it important to set up a single-site resource for information on the topic.  Right now the blog is mostly informational, but over time there will be more emphasis on appropriate public policy responses to avian flu.  That is, if avian flu spreads.

Here is the mission statement of the new blog.

Don’t worry, MR will continue as you know it.  Avian flu is a group blog, and I will post there only at times.  Right now the very smart Silviu Dochia is a major poster.  Randall Parker of Futurepundit.com will post sometimes, and Alex promises an occasional post or two.  More bloggers may be assembled, depending how the issue develops.

I have longer-range plans to set up (but not write for) blogs on other single issue topics, sometimes on very short notice or lasting for very short periods of time.

It’s odd to start a blog that you hope nobody reads, but that is what this is.

Your comments and suggestions would be most welcome.  And if you would like to submit a guest post to the new blog, please contact Silviu through the Avianflu.typepad.com website.

Seth Roberts is Utterly Mad (but in a good way)

Seth Roberts is a psychologist at Berkeley who for the past twelve years has obsessively kept data on himself in an effort to generate and test new ideas.  In a recent paper in Behavioral and Brain Sciences he explains some of his methods and findings (a number of comments, most of which I think are blah, blah, blah are also included).

Roberts, for example, drank 5 liters (!) of water every day for 4 months to test a theory of weight loss (he lost weight but he couldn’t keep up the drinking!).  He also began standing for more than 8 hours a day, initially to test the affect on weight loss but instead he found that standing, especially 10 hours or more a day, dramatically improved his sleep.  Eventually, he did find a novel form of weight loss involving fructose water (read the paper).  Some of his findings seem bizarre, such as watching faces on tv in the morning improved his mood the next day but lowered it that night. 

It’s tempting to dismiss all of this (especially before reading the paper and looking at the care with which Roberts kept his data) and clearly, I wouldn’t take any experiment with 1 subject as definitive.  Roberts, however, is making the case that careful measurement of self-response is a way of generating new ideas.  Roberts, for example, did not set out to test the idea that viewing faces improved mood this was a surprising discovery. 

A virtue of self-experimentation is that it doesn’t take a million dollar lab and a bevy of graduate students, with some willpower and a willingness to carefully document and measure results, anyone can do cutting-edge science.   

Is the number of autistics rising?

I read the following in USA Today:

A decade ago, one in every 2,500 U.S. children had autism; now it’s one in 166, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says.

But is it true?  Autism Diva (a new blog) raises some serious doubts.  Autism may still be rising, but this number may be the latest "urban legend."  Using Google alone, I could not track down the ultimate source (beyond the CDC press release) of the "1 in 166" claim.  I can, however, tell you this.  A search for "autism 166" yields (repetitive) riches on google.com, but nothing real on scholar.google.com.

Addendum: Here is one serious piece; it supports my skepticism.  Thanks to Daniel Starr for the pointer.

Fab labs

Fab labs are going to rock the world economy like no technology has since the advent of the internal combustion engine. People wonder about the future potential of the Internet – this is a big part of it.

At first, fab labs will be a novelty. They will be hailed as a way for U.S. manufacturers to compete with cheap overseas labor. For the most part manual labor will be eliminated altogether. These first fabricators will be large machines capable of a narrow range of manufacturing. Consumers will be happy with the new goods, mostly plastic toys at first, cheap and marked "Made in America." The Chinese will grumble.

Then some electronics manufacturer, perhaps even a Japanese firm like Sony, will begin single-step fabrication of electronics in factories close to the markets – often right here in the U.S. These electronics will be cheap and tough. The toughness is fortunate because they won’t be repairable. They will be a solid piece of plastic with the electronics embedded within. The electronics will be embedded, printed really, within the plastic like another layer of ink on a page. Again, consumers will be happy.

Around this time a large home-building operation will start fabricating homes. The homes will be compared to Henry Ford’s Model T. A three-man crew will be able to run a fabricator capable of producing a completed home within three days. The homemaker will run three shifts so that the fabricator can operate night and day.

Homebuyers will love these new cheap homes. Homeowners will grumble as home prices dip.

But the real shakeup will begin when some enterprising computer firm offers the first home fab lab. It will connect directly to the computer and look like a large printer. But it will also "print" solid objects. The first models will be capable of fabricating simple things. Manufacturers will laugh nervously at these first models. "Who wants to pay $5,000 to wait 48 hours to print a toothbrush?" they will ask. And they’ll be right. At first just a few nerdy enthusiasts will have them. But they’ll begin writing and exchanging fab plans.

That whoosing sound you’ll hear will be money flying out of the manufacturing and distribution sectors into computer companies (and elsewhere). The home fab labs will get cheaper, faster, and more capable.

And the file sharing black market will grow by leaps and bounds. There will be congressional hearings as companies like Apple and Motorola complain that their intellectual property, the plans for iPods and telephones, are being cloned or just flat stolen and posted on the Internet. There will be efforts to outlaw or limit these devices. People will be jailed for fabricating illegally powerful new fab labs. Others will go to jail for intellectual property theft. But consumers will demand better and better fab labs. Ultimately the majority will rule.

We’ll get the fab labs, but intellectual property theft will be prosecuted more and more seriously. Other types of petty theft will become less common. Why shoplift when you can steal the fab plans for the Playstation 5 off some obscure website or file sharer? File sharing will be heavily policed, but the black market will always be with us.

There will be other changes. Brick and mortar retail stores will be converted to public spaces or abandoned. Some public spaces will be restaurants, coffeehouses, clubs, bars, and churches. But multi-use space will be in increasing demand as connectivity tools allow easy coordination of impromptu events.

Here is the whole post, courtesy of The Speculist.

My puzzles: Say this were true.  What general investments should you make?  Would we expect real interest rates to rise or fall?  The growing wealth of the future suggests that the marginal utility of future dollars will be very small.  That suggests high real rates of interest (intuition: future dollars aren’t worth so much, so you need a high return to "deliver" dollars into that period).  That being said, time preference would be relatively low, given higher wealth.  The average product of capital would be high but how about the marginal product of capital?  Capital would be so plentiful you might do very trivial things with it.  When Western economies were relatively stagnant, were real rates of interest higher or lower?

Monitor your date or rival

By attaching electrodes to regular
eating utensils, inventor James Larsson has created knives and forks
that can pick up on whether the person across the table feels
uncomfortable or pleased.

London-based
Larsson hopes to help those who have difficulty reading signals such as
body language from their date. "Geeks have major challenges dating," he
says. The device analyses data from the cutlery to provide information
about how their dinner companion is feeling.

I doubt this will help; if you need the cutlery your own banter is probably falling flat.  My query is how and where business negotiations will take place, once these technologies are widely available. And hey guys, let’s play poker over my house tonight…

Here is the full story.

13 scientific puzzles

Read them here.  My favorite:

Several times a day, for several days, you induce pain in someone [children: do not try this at home]. You control the pain with morphine until the final day of the experiment, when you replace the morphine with saline solution. Guess what? The saline takes the pain away.

This is the placebo effect: somehow, sometimes, a whole lot of nothing can be very powerful. Except it’s not quite nothing. When Fabrizio Benedetti of the University of Turin in Italy carried out the above experiment, he added a final twist by adding naloxone, a drug that blocks the effects of morphine, to the saline. The shocking result? The pain-relieving power of saline solution disappeared.

So what is going on? Doctors have known about the placebo effect for decades, and the naloxone result seems to show that the placebo effect is somehow biochemical. But apart from that, we simply don’t know.

Here is one more puzzle on string theory, courtesy of Craig Newmark.  Or try this one, on what it is like to be watched by a robot.

Eggbeaters

If the transformation of eggs by heat seems remarkable, consider what beating can do!  Physical agitation normally breaks down and destroys structure. but beat eggs and you create structure.  Begin with a single dense, sticky egg white, work it with a whisk, and in a few minutes you have a cupful of snowy white foam, a cohesive structure that clings to the bowl when you turn it upside down, and holds its o wn when mixed and cooked.  Thanks to egg whites we’re able to harvest the air, and make it an integral part of meringues and mousses, gin fizzes and souffles and sabayons.

The full foaming power of egg white seems to have burst forth in the early 17th century.  Cooks had noticed the egg’s readiness to foam long before then, and by Renaissance times were exploiting it in two fanciful dishes: imitation snow and the confectioner’s miniature loaves and biscuits.  But in those days the fork was still a novelty, and twigs, shreds of dried fruits, and sponges could deliver only a coarse froth at best.  Sometime around 1650, cooks began to use more efficient whisks of bundled straw, and meringues and souffles start to appear in cookbooks.

That is from Harold McGee’s superb On Food and Cooking: The Science and Lore of the Kitchen.  Imagine the writing and expository skills of a Richard Dawkins, but applied to applied chemistry in the kitchen, and maintained at a consistent and gripping level for 809 pages.  The only problem with this book is that the magnitude of the quantity and quality is simply overwhelming.

Dan Klein and I used to have a saying: "You so much learn the whole book."  In marked contrast is Roger Penrose’s The Road to Reality: A Complete Guide to the Laws of the Universe.  Penrose remains a brilliant scientist and writer.  But never before have I seen a book that so clearly consists of material that I either a) already know, or b) will never know.

Will Yellowstone do us in?

Geologists have called for a taskforce to be set
up to consider emergency management in the event of a massive volcanic
eruption, or super-eruption…Experts say such an event would have a colossal impact on a global scale.  A super-eruption is also five to 10 times more likely to happen than an asteroid impact, the report claims.

The effects, say the authors, "could be sufficiently
severe to threaten the fabric of civilisation" – putting events such as
the Asian tsunami into the shade.  The fallout from a super-eruption could cause a "volcanic winter", devastating global agriculture and causing mass starvation…the frequency of equivalent super-eruptions is [at least] about once every 100,000 years.

Here is the full story.  Here is more background information.  Here are some apocalyptic worries of a religious nature.

Markets in everything — talk to aliens

A group of engineers has offered a solution for people who want a
direct line to aliens – by broadcasting their phone calls directly into
space.

People
wanting to contact extraterrestrial beings through www.TalkToAliens.com
can dial a premium rate US number and have their call routed through a
transmitter and sent into space through a 3.2-metre-wide dish in
central Connecticut, US.

The
service, launched on 27 February, will cost users $3.99 per minute,
says Eric Knight, president of the company. He says that a large radio
receiver – like the Arecibo dish in Puerto Rico – situated on a distant
planet might be large enough for an alien civilisation to receive the
calls.      
   

But who pays the long distance charges when ET returns your call?  Here is the story, and thanks to www.geekpress.com for the pointer.

Identity and Transhumanism

(The debate so far Tyler 1, Alex 1, Tyler 2).  Transhumanism raises two issues of identity, personal identity and species identity.

We change our personal identities all the time not only in obvious ways such as cosmetic surgery, psychoactive drugs, and emigration but even more through personal growth.  A university is at it most glorious and exciting when students are confronted with new ideas and visions that forever change who they are.

Contra Tyler, what Kass, Fukuyama and others worry about is not that the demand for identity is too strong but that it is too weak.  In their equation, Personal growth + Biotechnology = Velociraptors.

When the demand for a change in personal identity is strong it can have important external effects.  You may not want to be a velociraptor but if I change what choice do you have?  Or you may simply have a preference (atavistic and irrational perhaps but still a preference) for human beings as they are now.

Tyler makes the mistake, however, of jumping from such and such preferences are important and real to such and such preferences justify regulation/taxation/subsidization etc.

But I have many real identity preferences that do not justify coercing others.  I think of myself as a professor of economics at GMU but I do not have an absolute right to my job.  I am a friend of Tyler but Tyler gets a say in this too.  I understand why the Quebecois want to prevent the use of English in Quebec but I don’t agree that they have the right to do so.

In the same way, I understand that some people don’t want to expand the human lifespan beyond its "natural" limits but I object to their preventing others from doing so just because they don’t like the sight of sprightly senior citizens.