The Great Stagnation in the UK seems to start at around 2000

by on November 19, 2012 at 2:45 am in Data Source, Economics, History | Permalink

Here are other indicators of ongoing economic stagnation in the UK, and you can download the full report here.  Wages for much of the developed world perform quite poorly after 2000 or so.

For the pointer I thank Alex.

Michael Heller November 19, 2012 at 4:20 am

Good to know the UK is worth paying such attention to by the reliable guardians of its prosperity.

david November 19, 2012 at 6:31 am

Um… regardless of whether the point is valid, the graph certainly is not: of course a category containing the worst recession since the Depression displays the lowest average growth. What you really want to graph is the claimed late-90s early-00s regime change.

Schroeder November 19, 2012 at 4:55 pm

This

Florian November 19, 2012 at 6:50 am

Tyler, there is a difference between (a) the ups and downs of a business cycle and (b) the longterm growth path.
The theory of the Great Stagnation seems to focus on (b).
But the lackluster growth of 2001-2011 is due to a major recession, which falls into the (a) cateogry.

Actually, the graph rather seems to contradict the the great stagnation theory:
The rate of growth actually INCREASED in the last decades, the only exception being the recession of the last few years.
This is certainly NO illustration of some secular trend toward lower growth rates.

Philip Walker November 19, 2012 at 6:52 am

What david said would be true of the bar chart. The thing to look at is the line chart. Assuming it is accurate, there is an obvious change in the second derivative from positive to negative around 2001, which is indicative of stagnation.

dearieme November 19, 2012 at 9:17 am

For the first 3 or 4 years of the Labour government elected in 1997 it kept to the budget expenditures outlined by its Tory predecessor. After that it went on a spending spree wherein all expenditure was referred to sanctimoniously as “investment”. Personally I’d happily see Gordon Brown jailed and Tony Blair hanged, though many would say that that would be too soft on the pair.

Mark November 19, 2012 at 9:18 am

It’s the great stagnation in median earnings, not the Great Stagnation in productivity.

http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/decoupling-wage-growth-and-productivity-growth-myt/

Bill November 19, 2012 at 10:01 am

+1 Was about to make the same observation if you looked at the charts. Doesn’t seem to affect London bankers or wealthholders.

dirk November 19, 2012 at 2:33 pm

me too

Bill November 19, 2012 at 6:49 pm

you can also notice that these charts are ten year charts, and the last one ended in a recession.

Caveat emptor.

Steve Sailer November 19, 2012 at 4:37 pm

New Labour came to power in 1997 and secretly decided to open the immigration floodgates.

phil_20686 November 20, 2012 at 9:04 am
R Richard Schweitzer November 20, 2012 at 6:31 pm

I guess they must have sun-dried in what had been all of their low hanging fruit after 1835.

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