Scott Sumner reports:
So the Texas oil boom was quite recent, beginning about 2010. Now let’s look at the population growth figures before and after the recent boom:
Where is all the population growth from fracking?
Texas’s population grew at roughly twice the national rate for decade after decade, even as oil output was declining sharply.
The post makes several other points of interest. I would stress that Texas has developed at least five highly successful urban clusters, namely Houston, Dallas-Forth Worth, San Antonio, Austin, and to some extent El Paso or I would say El Paso-Juarez. For standard reasons of economic geography, such clusters are especially like in a larger state. Furthermore such clusters can be driven, in part, by relatively small differences in underlying state policy. Maybe Texas policy is only a little bit better than in some other states, but that small underlying difference can translate into a big change in final outcomes. Fracking is likely a complementary force here, but it is not the center of the story.