Is the recent economic growth of Texas driven mainly by fracking?
Scott Sumner reports:
So the Texas oil boom was quite recent, beginning about 2010. Now let’s look at the population growth figures before and after the recent boom:
2005-06: 2.55%
2006-07: 2.01%
2007-08: 2.02%
2008-09: 2.02%
2009-10: 1.85%
2010-11: 1.62%
2011-12: 1.52%
2012-13: 1.50%
Where is all the population growth from fracking?
And this:
Texas’s population grew at roughly twice the national rate for decade after decade, even as oil output was declining sharply.
The post makes several other points of interest. I would stress that Texas has developed at least five highly successful urban clusters, namely Houston, Dallas-Forth Worth, San Antonio, Austin, and to some extent El Paso or I would say El Paso-Juarez. For standard reasons of economic geography, such clusters are especially like in a larger state. Furthermore such clusters can be driven, in part, by relatively small differences in underlying state policy. Maybe Texas policy is only a little bit better than in some other states, but that small underlying difference can translate into a big change in final outcomes. Fracking is likely a complementary force here, but it is not the center of the story.