by Tyler Cowen
on January 14, 2016 at 12:12 pm
in Current Affairs, Data Source, Economics
One of the worst-hit markets has been Singapore’s ; lost over a THIRD of its value from April last year
From David Ingles.
What’s a country to do without a few Chinese billionaires. Cowen may have been impressed with Singapore, but it’s little more than a parasite, dependent as it is on billionaires and wealthy tourists who make their money someplace else. China, on the other hand, makes things people want, at least they want until they don’t, or don’t in numbers necessary to consume all of the things China makes. Never in the history of the world has there been productive capacity as it exists today, enough productive capacity to satisfy the needs and wants of most everyone on earth. But much of that productive capacity sits idle, while the world’s economists argue over theory and data and ideology and obsess over wild swings in financial markets dominated by billionaires.
Good argument, but I disagree on Singapore, it is not a parasite. It was a first world country before there were any Chinese billionaires.
Singapore is a parasite. Right.
Because they don’t “make things.”
(They actually do make things, but not gew-gaws in Walmart so that doesn’t count in your mind.)
Singapore has been a logistics hub as long as there has been global trade. They happily traded while China was sealed under Mao. They will trade with a slower China.
The bizarre thing about the crash is that if it were rational, it would be about a rational expectation of greatly reduced Pacific trade. I don’t buy that.
But to be fair I know nothing about investing or economics. Or anything else.
If you want to make a case for the decline of Singapore, dim clone 2, take a shot.
The market expects listed Singapore companies to be significantly less profitable in the future than it did a few weeks ago.
That non-answer populates the nightly news, but that does not make it smart. See Shiller’s study on Black Monday.
We don’t really have to go to Shiller.
We can back all the way up to Frans de Waal’s monkey, cucumber, grape experiment (possibly the greatest experiment in the history of economics).
In a big sell-off how do we know investors are not just throwing their cucumber back at the researcher?
@Gochujang “We can back all the way up to Frans de Waal’s monkey,”
In other words, investors are not fully rational. Duh. Humans are animals. Duh.
The good news is that now that you have figured that out, you are going to be able to make a killing on the Singapore stock market.
And if you don’t, I hope you will spare us with your facile bar stool psychology.
Look up Barry Ritholtz, and “pants wearing monkeys”
“But much of that productive capacity sits idle, while the world’s economists argue over theory and data and ideology …”
It seems a stretch to blame economists for idle productive capacity and it also seems foolish to assume that the world can always have 100% production at any given moment. Current world production and forecasting capabilities are far short of any such utopian ideal.
You can’t short China, they shoot you there.
But you can short everything else!
The clever, Oxford-alumni Singaporean civil servants will resolve this problem, right?
This isn’t a problem for government to resolve. The government should stay out of the markets; which is exactly what they’re doing.
Good point. It’s interesting that we have become so accustomed to seeing massive government action at the hint of downturn in the economic/financial cycle that when we don’t see it, we assume government incompetence.
Singaporean civil servants may just be a bit more forward thinking and aware of the reality of the world than the rest of us.
Let’s ask the Wizard! Surely he will know!
Of course. By doing nothing for their large salaries, they prove their superiority.
The Singaporean government stays out of the markets. That’s a good one. Tell it again.
The old words of John Bogle ring in my head. “The S&P 500 provides adequate foreign market exposure.”
Bizarre to me that Singapore would be so linked to China, but unsurprising that small markets are dangerous in this way.
I assume it’s all Obama’s fault?
In Singapore, you blame Lee Kuan Yew, or the Malays.
Are you admitting it’s not Reagan’s fault? Well that’s an unusual turn of events.
Not at all. Obama believes that Singapore is the US’s 57th state.
Since crime is caused by growing poverty and economic despair, then, I’m sure Singapore’s crime rate must have gone through the roof. How are they dealing with the sudden chaos?
Singapore builds a lot of offshore oil drilling platforms. Oil price hurts them badly.
Singapore will do just fine if they never build another drilling platform. It’s truly bizarre that the media, and the people that accept their fantasies, are so concerned over an adjustment in oil prices. It’s as if historically high oil prices are good for everyone. A case could be made, and has been, that the sharp increase in crude prices that began in 1999 contributed significantly to the real estate crash and foreclosure crisis that followed. But now money in the wallets of consumers that hasn’t been spent on motor fuel can purchase Powerball tickets, designer pizzas and NFL tickets. What’s wrong with that? Maybe if oil prices don’t come back up to a satisfactory level, like housing prices, some kind of marketing program for selling breathable air can be initiated.
Oh, I know, I was just thinking what would knock the stock market down, and I know they are big in ship building and marine services, and those would be listed on the stock market.
FYI Singapore is not China.
Singapore is closely connected to China via trade and financial flows, but there are also other factors at play, most notably the material rise in interest rates that began early last year.
MAS allowed the SGD to depreciate against the USD, decoupling SG rates from the US (check out SIBOR and SOR from the start of last year versus the previous five years). Given that the Singapore economy, particularly credit growth and housing, had been super-charged by deeply negative real interest rates, the move towards normalization has been depressive to domestic demand, and the Singapore equity market is heavily skewed to rate-sensitive stocks (notably banks and property companies). Hong Kong is now going through something similar given the increase in the US FFR and tight HKD-USD peg is driving up (HKD) HIBOR, though the China connection there is obviously overwhelming in comparison.
Singapore exists because of Britain, a shame we didn`t do such a good job with America.
Singapore has more challenges than most countries and two in particular pose real trouble:
– tapering of oil flows from the Middle East as we shift to fracked and other energy threatens their refining
– automated manufacturing eliminates labor as a cost, reducing trade flows from low cost Asia via Singapore
But Singapore looks much further ahead than most too. They’re shifting their entire – and massive – port to the west in order to expand the business district.
This strengthens their attraction as a place to conduct business. Singapore is now the Asia-pacific HQ for over 40% of the Furtine top 300.
And they’re investing heavily in infrastructure and entrepreneurial clusters, to establish this as a place to create businesses.
This strengthens their attraction as a place to conduct business. Singapore is now the Asia-Pacific HQ for over 40% of the Fortune top 300.
And they’re investing heavily in infrastructure and entrepreneurial clusters, to establish this as a place to create new business.
I suspect they want to become the Asian equivalent of Silicon Valley, a place where a concentration of money and talent acts as the draw for yet more money and talent.
Oil and trade flows can change, but smart, ambitious and wealthy people will always want to be around each other.
“automated manufacturing eliminates labor as a cost, reducing trade flows from low cost Asia via Singapore”
Years ago Apple manufactured in America. Wake me when they try again.
Foxconn is supposedly building US plants. Or was considering it back in 2014.
But other production has been on-shored, including by Boeing, and other firms.
Keep in mind that Apple may have too much volume to switch – it would be someone else who does.
I welcome the possibility, but from what I understand nothing yet show up in new manufacturing jobs, or as a reduction in port traffic.
Skepticism seems the safe bet.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore has been suffocating the economy. Yet another central bank obsessed with inflation rather than growth.
One thing I’ve gained from reading blowhard Nassim Taleb is that there is nothing to learn from graphs like this that you don’t already know.
Singapore is NOT (with emphasis) China. That you do not seem to know the difference is telling.
Do try to avoid showing off your ignorance here. You have failed to understand the implied message that Singapore is tied very closely to China in economic terms. He certainly did not meant that Singapore is part of China, which you would have understood merely by reading the comments even if you did not at first understand,
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