How to sound smart around the water cooler

by  Justin Wolfers in

The baseball playoffs begin today. (Go Red Sox!)  But if you haven’t been following the 162-game season, you may risk sounding foolish around the water cooler.

Here’s how to sound like an expert: Research tells us that prediction markets yield accurate forecasts.  Indeed, a prediction market forecast is likely smarter than any expert.  Simply point your browser to your favorite prediction market, and make the following observations confidently around the water cooler:

  1. Note that the American League looks much stronger than the National League.  (HT: Mike Giberson at Midas Oracle.)
  2. Sigh, while you say that "Once again the American League race looks like being the Red Sox or the Yankees."
  3. State emphatically that "the National League is anyone’s race.  Heck, even the come-from-behind Phillies are a chance."  (Say this as though you didn’t already know they were the betting favorites)

That’s it.  You are now an expert.  (How else do you think an Aussie can keep up a conversation about U.S. sports? I’ve been faking it for years… but shhh, don’t tell David Stern.)

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