Can we expect real reform from Basel III?

You can be for or against these interventions, but I find it amazing (though not surprising) that the biggest financial crash in recent history hasn't so much changed the political equilibrium.  Here is a recent report about interest group machinations behind the process of financial regulation:

Economic growth in the eurozone, the US and Japan will be cut by three percentage points between now and 2015 if current proposals to force banks to hold more capital and liquid assets go forward unchanged, the world’s leading banking industry group warned on Thursday.

As a result, 9.7m fewer jobs would be created in those areas over the period, according to an impact assessment issued by the Institute of International Finance at a meeting in Vienna.

The group is pushing hard for the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to rewrite or at least delay implementation of the proposals, known as Basel III, which are slated to be voted on later this year.

You will recall that the Obama administration had been claiming that Basel III will be responsible for the single most important piece of financial reform, namely tighter general restrictions on financial institution leverage.  Might this slip away?  Do you still hear serious talk of reforming the mortgage agencies?  When the choice is "jobs and homes before the next election" vs. "limiting a small probability of extreme tail risk," guess which one wins out? 


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