Economics Nobel odds at iPredict

iPredict is running contracts on who will win this year's Nobel Prize in Economics. As I write Oliver Hart heads the field with a 25% chance, Robert Schiller, Richard Thaler, Martin Weitzman come next, all with an 18% chance of winning.

Also listed are William Nordhaus, Jean Tirole, Angus Deaton, Richard Posner, Gene Grossman, Ernst Fehr, Gordon Tullock, Avinash Dixit, Sam Peltzman, Eugene Fama and Robert Barro.

It does seem to be a market based on real money payments, though I am not sure how much liquidity is there.  The direct link to the contracts is here and right now Thaler is leading.  The link cited above is here and for the pointer I thank Eric Crampton.


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