Will the government shut down?

Here are the Bookmaker’s odds:

Will the U.S. Congress reach an agreement on the federal spending cut bill for the rest of the fiscal year before March 4th?

YES -140 58%
NO -110 47%

[The +/- Indicates the Return on the Wager. The percentage is the likelihood that response will occur. For Example: Betting on the candidate least likely to win would earn the most amount of money, should that happen.]

For the pointer I thank Samuel Arbesman.  Why is there no InTrade.com market?

Addendum: InTrade now shows a 39 percent chance of a shutdown before the end of June.


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