Is now the time to go long on Pakistan?

Maybe so.  Ian Bremmer reports that of 282 elected BJP representatives, not one is a Muslim, even though Muslims are about 15% of India’s population.  In some political models, that can make the electorate more willing to cut a deal with Pakistan, as fewer people will fear that the deal will neglect India’s interests.  In essence this kind of slanted government can become more Coasean, as it is more trusted by its core supporters.

You will find related mechanisms discussed in my paper with Daniel Sutter, “Why Only Nixon Could Go To China.”

Indeed Modi just invited the Pakistani Prime Minister to his inauguration, an unusual action which is being called “a bold step.”

I have been relatively bullish on Pakistan for some time now.  Relative to market prices, that is.


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