Kevin Drum offers some commentary on my take on the uncertainties of 2015. But keep in mind, by focusing on uncertainties the inquiry has an intrinsic pessimistic bias. Lots of good things will happen in 2015 too, it’s just that they aren’t very uncertain. Catch-up growth will continue in most nations, even if at slower rates in many cases. Medical progress will lumber along. Poverty will diminish. Poems will be read and utils will sparkle in people’s brains. A number of good books will be produced and you will be able to read about some of them right here on MR. Washington, D.C. will continue to become an interesting city. More and more people will experience the joys of parenthood. Indeed there is quite a good chance 2015 will be one of the best years the world ever has seen!
But again, the uncertainties of 2015…those are mostly going to be negative.