China pessimists are China optimists, and vice versa

If you think a lot of China’s growth slowdown already has come, the rest should prove manageable, albeit painful.  That is true for both the global economy and for China.  And that is in fact my view.

But if you think China has been growing at six to seven percent over the last year…egads!  The roof will be falling in all at once, and what a long and steep way it has to tumble.  The previous China optimists, provided they are not asleep, should be really worried now.

If you take Australian prices as a kind of bellwether, arguably the Chinese slowdown started about four to five years ago.  (Five years ago, the Australian government was forecasting Australian growth rates of seven percent, now the growth rates are at about two percent.)

I call it the Soft Hard Landing.



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