Who has risen and fallen in status due to Brexit?



Those predicting Irish unity within a generation

The Irish

David Goodhart



David Cameron and Co.

Angela Merkel

Jeremy Corbyn

The Governor of Gibraltar

Advocates of economic self-interest theories of voting

Julien Benda

Those who pooh-poohed “backlash” objections to open borders

Those long the zloty

Prime Minister Abe

Old people


Still unknown

Boris Johnson

Central bankers

Vladimir Putin

Zhou En-Lai


Add Tyler Cowen and Ray Lopez to that list. I need to move euros out of Greece and this will fsuck me.

Ah, the benefits of top posting.... CNN quip by Remain supporter: "Isolating ourselves is ridiculous. I have a new Danish boyfriend who was planning to move here but I don't know what this means for him now."

Good points. I understand that even in Greece which is still in the EU, every country can discriminate against non-country people, outside the EU. For example, a Greek marrying an American has to apply for a non-permanent Resident Alien visa for their spouse to live in Greece, same if I marry my Filipino girlfriend as I plan to do and move her to Athens. It's absurd but the law. In theory the Resident Alien visa is for five years and 'automatically' renewable--for now. Xenophobia by old Baby Boomers will be the death of globalization, 'you heard it from me first'. Steve Sailor is loving this Leave vote, that should scare you.

Add President Tantrum to the list.

That is, of the fallen. Add Donald J. Trump to the top of the Risen list.


Expect US undecideds to swing heavily to Trump. Apparently there are things people are uncomfortable disclosing to pollsters.

Trump is so over that Ryan's endorsement is "decide for yourself."

Undecided voters tend to be low information voters. Most of them probably think "Brexit" is a new online game being released.

"Xenophobia"??? So the people native to England should have welcomed the huge tax increases and wealth redistribution necessary to support all those rent seekers invading their country? And if they refuse to lie still and be raped we will call them names...

The name calling, combined with a direct threat of harm if their will is not followed is the mode of operation of the modern liberal. They do this while outwardly positing harmony. This hypocrisy is why they are the most loathsome people in the world.

For "liberal" substitute "ideologue" and you have the full solution. Of course, you have to be fairly non-ideological to recognize that.

@SweetPea- xenophobia means fear of strangers, the other. That describes what you fear. Do you mind if your neighbor is from Nigeria and practices voodoo? I don't, but maybe you do. That makes you a xenophobe. As for huge tax increases and wealth redistribution, just hide your wealth the way billionaire W. Buffett does, like I do, like the rich do. I paid no tax hardly the last 10+ years, since I earn my US income from working online, offshore. Working for The Man with a weekly paycheck is a sucker's game. Become a freelancer, a freeloader, like I am. I'm in the 1%. Cheers.

I think economists in general might be losers. They didn't recognize the mixed message they sent.

"The European Union is a Failure!"

"Stay in the European Union!"

Really? Other than that, it strikes me that there is a parallel to the 1776 Amerexit. I'm sure economists would have recommended against. They might have been right, but they'd lose for similar reasons. No one wants to "stay" with something they regard as broken, even if it is in short term financial interest. See also "divorce."

Pollsters? Really?

I know, seriously. Tyler is just posing here (as usual). Of course, I'm one of the biggest posers around, so I guess I shouldn't talk.

Haha. Just kidding everyone. I did post that. I just love a good laugh and a stiff drink (among other things). I hope you'll forgive me for my brutish sense of humour and my hilarious use of hyphens (sock-puppeteers). I'm obviously a very witty commenter. I should be revered.

Also, I'm a total fraud. Yep, Art Deco = Total Fraud. You heard it here first!

That finally happened? Thank the Lord, every other comment was one person for a while there!

No need to thank me, Derek. Just doing my work (or as you call it, God's Work).

Yeah, that was a wacky pick.

In order, the big winners are:
Boris Johnson
Donald Trump
Vladimir Putin
The English (you, know, everyone who comes to mind when you say The English)

Stupid site formatting.

Another potential big winner is North America, which is a much more natural economic and cultural partner for Britain than Germany ever was.

Trump gets a talking point for a week or so-- and he'll probably botch it as he botched Orlando.
Moreover when has a foreign event not involving American lives or the American military had the slightest effect on American politics? As far as most voters are concerned the sun might as well rise in the Atlantic and set in the Pacific. And overall it's still "The economy, stupid".

Doesn't talk of the economy or foreign policy favor Trump?

Look, I'm not on team Trump, I haven't voted for the guy, and don't think I'd be able to. But what's Clinton up in national polls, like +5 in the latest Rasumussen? With something like 15% undecided? It's hard not to predict a Trump victory, particularly after today.

"It’s hard not to predict a Trump victory, particularly after today."

I wouldn't go that far. But, yes, I think this makes it slightly more likely.

To put a number on it, I'm currently at a 60% chance of Trump being the next president. Figure 30% Clinton, 10% somebody else.

Today has been a great reminder that absolute certainty is not appropriate when discussing elections...

Well if you put it that way, my internal model is roughly the same but reversed.

60% Hillary, 35% Trump, 5% Other

But I'm really bad at this, so I'm 95% confident my internal model is wrong.

A plausible lesson from Brexit polling is that the nativist vote is undercounted by around 10 percentage points.

Meaning Trump is, right now, in the lead. Scary stuff.

"Pollsters? Really?"

I question putting Pollsters in the Risen column. Sure they were better than the Betting Markets, but they still called it wrong. And "Betting Markets" should definitely be in the Fallen column.

An interesting question is, "Were betting markets manipulated or just wildly wrong?"

Yes or no, either way, betting markets should clearly be in the Fallen column (which I admit surprised me). But it would be interesting to know why.

I'm curious to know which way the big bets that were placed yesterday went. However, the odds kept getting longer against Leave yesterday. So, most of the bets were clearly in favor of Remain. Was there a pattern?

I continue to submit that many of the bets were not authentic predictions of the vote outcome, but were placed to affect the sentiment in other markets for short periods of time before the vote, such as Sterling.

Is there enough public information to figure that out?

Two days ago, I dismissed that sort of thing as a conspiracy theory. Now I'm not so sure.

But I'm also open to the idea that maybe betting markets just don't work so well in low information / highly emotional situations.

So, large votes for the Remain option by some Soros like individual (relatively cheap at that level), while he shorts the pound (and makes hundreds of millions).

I guess so, but that implies someone with a lot of money thinks the prediction markets are actually a thing people pay attention to. Thinks that they are worth manipulating.

Pollsters versus bookies, I reckon. Pollsters called it as neck and neck, and turned out ot be about right.

Yes, my overwhelming impression was that the polls were pretty much unanimous that Remain was going to win, by roughly the same margin it actually lost (i.e. something like 7% off from the actual result). Didn't we see Yougov and other pollsters start the night (morning for me) confident then come to the horrified realisation they had got it wrong all over as Sunderland and ... Newcastle, was it? came in dramatically different from the polling.

Compared to markets? Those polls from a week ago are looking pretty good, comparatively speaking.


Markets in everything! ;)

A week ago yes, but my impression was that after that MP was murdered, ah, a week ago, the polls all picked up a movement back to a clear Remain victory. Either the shift was imaginary, or their baseline pre-assasination was significantly off.

or there was a small social deserability bias in poll post murder that made people less willing to say brexit

Only because of the bizarre cargo cult that sprung around telephone polls.

Online polls were basically 50/50.

I predicted a greater than even chance of Brexit on June 14, though following the Jo Cox murder and the drop in the polls I lost my nerve and ended up predicting 50.5% for Remain a few hours before voting began.

As it was, Shy Tory remained relevant to Remain's detriment.

The Governor of Gibraltar? What are you on about? Or, indeed, what are you on?

Less access to the EU economy would be very bad for Gibraltar.

Oh, I think they will keep their access to the EU...the political tatonnement is not over yet, just ask the Spanish...

When the people of Gibraltar last voted on (partial) Spanish sovereignty over 98% rejected it. I don't think giving away Gibraltar against the wishes of its residents would be politically feasible in Britain. Also, how far would this get them in EU negotiations? Does anyone other than Spain care?

What's bizarre is that Spain does care. They haven't held the territory for 300 years, it's 2.5 sq miles with 30,000 people living there, and the populace wants no part of Spanish rule. Almost as silly as the Argentine whine about the Falklands.

So what? That might be a problem for the Chief Minister, but why would it be a problem for the Governor?
Once again Mr Cowen's understanding of Abroad seems to be a bit defective.

What's bad for Gibraltar is bad for the governor of Gibraltar, is it not (in general)? I don't understand your objection.

He's a soldier, a royal marine comando no less, he will be very good at being and looking resolute and perfectly British, in an English way, if the Spanish get really stupid.

If Gibraltar ends up a source of conflict anyone actually notices, Spain, and Europe will be exhibiting Brazillian levels of self defeat and Brexit will look wise. Can you imagine Merkel and Hollande backing any Spanish attempts at Gibraltar?

@RoyLC, I don't expect serious conflict over Gibraltar's sovereignty. However, harm to Gibraltar due to changes in the UK's economic relationship to Europe is quite likely. Right now, thousands of people are crossing that border for work, and Gibraltar's financial industry is a powerhouse due to EU business. That is all in question now.

Spain closed the border with Gibraltar for 16 years (1969-85). Gibraltar survived.

I remember a story when Bush 43 was in office.

I think the Spanish were on maneuvers and "accidentally" came ashore on Gibralter. Colin Powell had to calm everyone down.

Maybe it was Malta, but I don't think so.

It's kind of like the Russian Navy using Cuba again. I wonder I my tax dollars will help beef that port up for them?

"Advocates of economic self-interest theories of voting"

This seems like (if I may be so bold) an ideological Turing test fail.

Two of the main arguments made for Leave were:

1) The regulatory burden of the EU.

2) Inability to restrict immigrants from coming to take British jobs.

Also, the Leave side argued that Brexit did not have to mean loss of access to the common market.

The argument for Brexit was largely made on the basis of economic self-interest. Of course you may not agree with those arguments, but it's not clear that Leave voters were voting
for a worse economic situation.

I think Tyler means more of a "What's the Matter With Kansas" viewpoint, in which Thomas Frank was mystified that cultural forces could outweigh mere dollars. Of course, Frank was also wrong in the same way you are pointing out too.

I interpreted this as Tyler making the same error Frank did: failing to take seriously the other side's economic arguments.

But maybe that was a misinterpretation, and Tyler was referring to other people making this error by predicting that Remain will win because of economic self-interest.

No, I think your interpretation is correct.

The fact that he consistently called Brexit "the Donald Trump of Britain" is a point in favor of my interpretation, I think.

I don't think Tyler accepts the possibility that those voting Leave might believe that Leave is in their economic self interest, and that they might be right, in addition to it perhaps being in their cultural or national interest apart from economics.

I think you get immigration wrong, it's not much about economics but about culture. The Brits don't want an islamization of their culture. I don't think they care much about Danish immigration for example. The migrants in Calais, the migrants Merkel welcomed are all Muslim. These immigrants don't integrate.

'I don’t think they care much about Danish immigration for example.'

But those Polish plumbers, with their foreign culture and inability to integrate in British culture - yep, by all means let the British take back control.

Why don't the Japanese let in more Koreans and Chinese? After all, they all have epicanthic folds, so clearly they are interchangeable!

@Cliff Koreans are the second largest ethnic group in Japan

.@prior. There was quite a bit of Polish immigration in France after WW2. There was no talk of second generation, this and that. The second generation completely integrated. 3rd generation Muslims are no more integrated than the first

I must admit, seeing Labour political meetings where the attendee segregate by sex is a bit of a wake up call.

The EU is not the source of Britain's Muslim immigrants. Those are coming from Commonwealth countries, mainly Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. Liberal immigration from the Commonwealth was put in effect back before Elizabeth II was queen,.

@steph Koreans are under 1% of the Japanese population. They make up the third largest ethnic group after the Yamato majority and the native Ryukyuan minority.

Prof. Cowen is also committing the fallacy of division; i.e., he believes staying would be good for "GDP," ergo, he further assumes it would be good for any individual voter.


Lee Kuan Yew, who predicted the EU would fail


All my friends on Facebook apparently

Yes, i have the same everybody is saying the world is about to end.

Wow, you have very cosmopolitan friends. My facebook feed remains pictures of sunsets and cats, punctuated by alternating denunciations of Hillary and Trump.

I saw a meme today that skewered both:

Hillary says: "I want to see your tax returns, Donald!"

Trump says "I emailed them to you, Hillary!"

No problem, Lee Kuan! Love your style! You still coming over for tacos on Wednesday? You should totes bring Megan!!

Shouldn't a libertarian favor any policy which increases the Balkanization of polities? One way to get the greatest freedom to the greatest number of people is to have many competing polities which must compete: compete for citizens, compete for business.

It appears that the EU was well along the path of diminishing such a competitive environment, yes? So why the hostility to Vote Leave? On it's face, this seems like a pro-liberty move, right?

Or are we just concerned with becoming too entangled, in the mind of society, with the neoreactionaries? We must publicly show that we disapprove of tainted measures even if there is a good chance that they'd improve human liberty?

We should restablish all those European little kingdoms, everyone with a different system of measurement (does anyone know how long is Cameron's foot?) and tariffs. Tis would be great for freedom everywhere...
"We must publicly show that we disapprove of tainted measures even if there is a good chance that they’d improve human liberty?"
Hahaha. Yeah, UKIP, Lighthouse of Freedom!
"Or are we just concerned..."
Why, in Cowardese, "we" almost always means "You, people who don't agree with me"?

Meh. Free trade agreements.

More like 'Free Shmade agreements'... am I right?!?!

True. More countries, more competition, more accountability.

Double true! More countries, more competition, more accountability = more hotties, more bodies, more cheddar, more roller skating, more FREEDOM!!!

Good point. I've been trying to find a way to articulate or demonstrate that Big Government seems more likely when Government has wider jurisdiction. In the US, welfare springs from the federal government --- e.g., Social Security, Medicare, Obamacare --- not from consensus sweeping through states. Progressives are enamored with the UN, conservatives much less so. In the case of the EU, there is a double whammy that, in addition to the supra-national structure, Continental Europe seems to have stronger socialist tendencies than the UK to begin with.

On the day of the vote, the EU proposed that robots should pay social security taxes and be classified as "electronic persons": [http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/06/23/more-eu-lunacy-robots-should-pay-social-security-taxes-for-the-pensions-they-wont-get]. I'm not saying that this news affected voting at all, but it shouldn't be surprising that UK voters said thanks-but-no-thanks to lawmaking like this.

More scope for transfer seeking ("rent seeking") by special interest groups. Farmers can't get many subsidies for farming in a country of mostly farmers.

Whatever they think of themselves, libertarians in practice are either cynical shills or autistic patsies for the interest of powerful crony capitalists. The EU was an elites wet dream of being able to impoverish the 99% in the interests of the 1%. Any map of the Brexit vote will show it was London against all of England. Being an unpopular and unelected body of bureaucrats in Brussels should have been a giveaway this wasn't exactly Hayek's dream, but remember that posh houses in NOVA and private school don't pay for themselves, wonks got to eat.

This is a remarkably fact-free analysis. All of Scotland's districts voted Remain, much of NI voted remain, Leeds, Liverpool, Bristol, Manchester all voted remain. Numerous others. But sure, "London against all of England."

Scotland and Northern Ireland being, notably, not England.

But also being not London...

Again, the parts of Ulster which voted 'remain' are predominantly Catholic. No one expected them to vote like British patriots.

There are about 25 constituencies in the West Country. Bristol is one of 4 which voted to remain.

As a cynical autistic libertarian, I strongly support Helviticanization. I support the Brexit, Grexit, devolution of the UK into England, Scotland and Wales, and end to the US union. Not sure if I am a patsy, I have a lot more short ideas than long ones for the market and my options either stayed in the money or got closer to being that way.

Pollsters got things fantastically wrong. The self convincing up before the vote that this one is safe in the bag was quite amazing.

"Pollsters" - this is a joke, right? They almost all predicted UK to remain at the end. They all underestimated the will to leave.


Betting markets

Yup. Polls were predicting a very close vote, betting markets were not.


Boris is ready to blast-off, baby.

It's odd that Boris is "still unknown". Surely being the leading advocate for the side that pulled off an unexpected victory is a rise in status for him (whatever you think of the result)? Of course it remains to be seen what happens next.

Some might say that Boris doesn't really believe that Leave is best for Britain or its people, but that he supported it for other reasons...

Maybe so (though who can know his mind?). In any case, his status just rose.

Oh of course we can't know for sure.There are some very close to his family saying this is purely political opportunism and that he really really doesn't believe Brexit actually makes any sense. I mean it's already working. Cameron is out.

'There are some very close to his family saying this is purely political opportunism and that he really really doesn’t believe Brexit actually makes any sense'

Probably some of his former European School in Brussels classmates are thinking the same thing.

That's a very cynical view, but my view of politicians is low enough that I have to think it's at least possible.

"purely political opportunism and that he really really doesn’t believe Brexit actually makes any sense"

I do not think Disraeli really supported the Corn Laws either. His political opportunism worked out pretty well for both himself and England.

Boris is just a poor shadow of Dizzy of course but Cameron is a good facsimile of Peel.


As someone who voted for Brexit I have to chuckle at the utter ignorance of the elite such as Tyler. How have the Irish and Scottish risen in status? If the motives for their voting for remain was believing in free markets, property rights and liberty you'd be correct, of course, but that thinking is nonsense.

Scotland (and to a lesser extent N.Ireland who had the lowest turnout of any nation) want the status quo thanks to the handouts they get from England and England via the EU. There's a reason the poor parts of England voted, 'unexpectedly', for Brexit it's because the money that should be going to them is being spent on the rich Celts (note: that excludes the Welsh who are generally poorer and voted out). Scotland has blackmailed England with threats of leaving if their subsidies are taken away. After decades of that tactic working it backfired badly yesterday.

It was definitely a rise in status for Scottish Independence. Whether that means a rise for "Scots" in general is a much different question, though.

If the Scots want it, then what the hell difference does it make?

'How have the Irish and Scottish risen in status?'

Nicola Sturgeon might have an answer when it comes to Scotland.

But then, she probably represents some sort of out of touch elite, right?

"If the motives for their voting for remain was believing in free markets, property rights and liberty you’d be correct, of course, but that thinking is nonsense."

How is wanting to stay in a federation with a single market at all contradicted by this?

I would note that other areas which receive extensive EU funding, like Wales, have voted strongly in favour of Brexit.

British nationalists for Brexit and against Sexit. No surprise there.

I wonder if this bodes well for Trump, too. He seems to be pushing similar buttons in America, what will this mean over the coming months?

My guess is not relevant. It's unlikely to have much direct impact on America (at least not by November), and Americans just don't care enough about European politics.

Yeah, I wondered that too...and to the extent that polling was wrong on this issue, something similar may be happening with the Presidential race.

It could demonstrate that a position or politician derided as racist will do worse in polling than in actual voting.

I'd guess that the people who pay enough attention to international news to remember this in November will mostly be galvanized into voting for Hillary.

The idea of a large group of 'shy' Trump voters is a novel, but unconvincing one.

Trump is exhibitionistic. His voters are, by and large, the same people who generally vote Republican. What gave you the idea they imitate the candidates they vote for?

Doesn't the resulting market turmoil bode well for Trump? Hilary's best argument for herself is that she will more or less maintain a steady ship from the Obama presidency, which has gone reasonably well from an economic perspective: healthy employment gains, wages finally rising, strong US dollar (hurts exports but good for voting consumers). If the stock market dives and employment starts to retract, the argument for continuing the incumbent President's policies is undermined. Since so many people only pay attention to the Presidential race, this feature would presumably not show up in the Congress elections, pushing government farther Republican.

“Advocates of economic self-interest theories of voting”

The author fails to think beyond the interests of his class (though admittedly this is extremely prevalent with Brexit, an elite disconnect that in fact might partially explain the result).

European mobility, Erasmus, etc. favor the young and rich but are pointless to the poor and less educated, who on the other hand have no interest in competing with East European immigrants while having to send them 500 Euros worth of net funds yearly (hence why even a fiery Eurobasher like Orban dropped his act and took out an ad in a major British paper to beseech them to Remain).

It is also safe to say that most of them have no stake in or interest in the welfare of the City of London, nor do they have particularly good reasons to trust in the dismal prognostications of economists and sundry "experts" in light of their record in recent years.

Why Benda?

I am also interested in why Benda falls in status.

Probally because Benda hated nationalism but there is a 50 percent chance Tyler meant Julien Freund and got confused. He's not great on details.

Common Man
Steve Sailer (Citizenism)
Boris Johnson


"Steve Sailer (Citizenism)"

Are we making shit up now? The man is a US American citizenist, he has nothing to do with Britain or the EU. In his worldview, all Brits might just as well be rightless slaves.

Same goes for Trump who celebrates the Brits "taking their nation back". What does he have to celebrate, is he British?

This just shows how broken and inconsistent these demagogues are. I'm perfectly willing to become a citizenist or a nationalist, but since I'm not American, that makes Trump and Sailor enemies by definition. We should build a wall and make them pay for it.

People can believe in nations without necessarily believing that different nations must be enemies.

They are wrong. The very existence of one nation's military and possible technological dominance makes it a threat to every other nation.

Hence the never-ending American-Canadian War.

Silly response. Of course not every nation is at war with every other nation at all times. Temporary alliances are in the national interest, as long as other enemies are more threatening. But if you think the US is not a potential threat to Canada and vice versa, if there was ever a steep enough power imbalance, you're a fool. And even during peace time, they compete with each other. This is why there will never be something like climate change mitigation on a global level.

The very existence of other people is a threat to me.

If they're all egoistic sociopaths, of course.

Nationalism implies quasi-sociopathy between nations.

You fail the Turing test

Why Vladimir Putin, Abe, the Unknown God and people who long the zloty?
Why not betting sites and Clinton (clearly Brexit favors Trump, showing the "impossible" can happen)?

You left out the big one...France. With the UK out of the EU, France will take on more of a leadership role.

Maybe, maybe not: http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/frexit-italexit-support-eu-dwindles-france-italy/

Portugal's Anthem says:
"May Europe cry out to the whole Earth:
'Portugal has not perished'"
Well, neither has Perfidious Albion, it seems. Free Scotland!

You know portuguese anthem beter than me. Bravo!

It is one of the most beautiful anthems, up there with the Brazilian one and "I Vow to Thee".
Although, if memory serves me right, the stanza I quoted from is part of the original poem, but was not made part of the official anthem. It is a shame, the whole lyrics is beautiful and infused with the highest moral value.

"Although, if memory serves me right, the stanza I quoted from is part of the original poem, but was not made part of the official anthem. "


Original version:

Herois do mar, nobre povo,
Nação valente, imortal,
Levantai hoje de novo
O esplendor de Portugal!
Entre as brumas da memoria,
Oh patria ergue-se a voz
Dos teus egrégios avós,
Que há-de guiar-te à vitória!

Às armas, às armas!
Sobre a terra, sobre o mar,
Às armas, às armas!
Pela patria lutar!
Contra os Bretões!
marchar, marchar!

Desfralda a invicta bandeira,
À luz viva do teu céo!
Brade a Europa à terra inteira:
Portugal não pereceu!
Beija o teu sólo jucundo
O Oceano, a rugir de amor;
E o teu braço vencedor
Deu mundos novos ao mundo!

Às armas, às armas!
Sobre a terra, sobre o mar,
Às armas, às armas!
Pela patria lutar!
Contra os Bretões
marchar, marchar!

Saudai o sol que desponta
Sobre um ridente porvir;
Seja o eco de uma afronta
O sinal do resurgir.
Raios dessa aurora forte
São como beijos de mãe,
Que nos guardam, nos sustêm,
Contra as injurias da sorte.

Às armas, às armas!
Sobre a terra, sobre o mar,
Às armas, às armas!
Pela patria lutar!
Contra os Bretões
marchar, marchar!

Official anthen:

Heróis do mar, nobre povo,
Nação valente, imortal,
Levantai hoje de novo
O esplendor de Portugal!
Entre as brumas da memória,
Ó Pátria sente-se a voz
Dos teus egrégios avós,
Que há-de guiar-te à vitória!

Às armas, às armas!
Sobre a terra, sobre o mar,
Às armas, às armas!
Pela Pátria lutar!
Contra os canhões
marchar, marchar!

[Note also the replacement of "Contra os Bretões!" - "Against the Britons!" - by "Contra os canhões" - "Against the cannons"]

The British were already making trouble those days. They and their Ultimatum.
Although, as a Portuguese smart-aleck once pointed out, "against the cannons" one doesn't march, one seeks cover.. Anyway, awesome lyrics.

Anyone have an opinion on whether Britain can actually crystalise the decision?
Next UK election - say 2018, Labour runs on over-turn EU decision + go back to Europe - wins + back to status quo
Any takers?

Right now the referendum is being treated as the final decision by all sides. I don't see that happening outright, because no politicians want to take the position of defying the direct decision of voters in a referendum. Also, it wouldn't work within the current party alignment: 40% of Labour voted for Brexit.

However, if there is a new election called, it will be all about Britain's relationship with Europe. It's conceivable that one party could advocate for something like "EU membership lite" that still calls for a very close relationship with the EU, if not outright membership. Something like this was not on the table previously, but EU leadership might now be willing to compromise on a reduced relationship for Britain.

'Right now the referendum is being treated as the final decision by all sides.'

Well, Nicola Sturgeon is not considering it a final decision for Scotland. She seems to feel that if the English get to vote to leave the EU, the Scots deserve a right to vote on whether Scotland stays in the EU. 'In Thursday’s vote, Scottish voters supported the “Remain” campaign by a large margin, with every area in the country voting in favor of staying in the E.U.

Sixty-two percent of voters supported Remain, compared with just 47 percent in England.

Sturgeon said in a statement early Friday that her country “delivered a strong, unequivocal vote to remain in the E.U.”' https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/after-brexit-the-uk-could-disintegrate/2016/06/24/5e7d2b03-81b4-4149-a138-8bd11953281c_story.html

That the Scottish National Party is an avid adherent to the EU is a strong indicator that Scottish particularism is frivolous.

Or that the Scottish people has its own interests and has decided not to cater to the whims and political superstitions of their colonial masters anymore. Scotland will fight, and Scotland will be right.

The whole point of particularism is local self-government, Thiago. Doesn't make much sense to kvetch about Westminster and submit to Brussels unless the kvetching is all gesture.

'Doesn’t make much sense to kvetch about Westminster and submit to Brussels unless the kvetching is all gesture'

Or unless you actually hate the Conservative Party, and are happy to kiss it goodbye in return for remaining in a political structure you find more amenable.

To give a concrete example, university fees as applied to English university students - 'In England, tuition fees are capped at £9,000 a year, with around 76% of all institutions charging the full amount in 2015-16. The average fee for a three year course is currently £26,000 in total.'

Or as handled in Scotland - 'Tuition is handled by the Student Awards Agency Scotland (SAAS), which does not charge fees to what it defines as "Young Students". Young Students are defined as those under 25, without children, marriage, civil partnership or cohabiting partner, who have not been outside of full time education for more than three years. Fees exist for those outside the young student definition, typically from £1,200 to £1,800 for undergraduate courses, dependent on year of application and type of qualification. Postgraduate fees can be up to £3,400.

The system, in place since 2007 when graduate endowments were abolished, has been met with praise. Labour's education spokesperson Rhona Brankin however has criticised the Scottish system for failing to address student poverty.' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuition_fees_in_the_United_Kingdom#Current_Systems

"The whole point of particularism is local self-government, Thiago."
Right or wrong, they have complaints. They probably think Brussels' regulations are less nocive, not to mention less intrusive, than London's. They clearly don't like the system that is being imposed on them by London, they certainly have as much of a right to choose leaving the United Kingdom as the English have to choose leaving the European Union. Also, remember, they were told, if they left the Kingdom, they would be outside the European Union-- well, now they are outside anyway and they are still locked with the English. Also, I doubt the hypocrites who are now shedding crocodile tears about the British (maybe) having to deal with the economic consequences of being outside the European Union were worried when the prespective was being used as a club to compel Scotland to remain in an abusive relationship. Cameron betrayed Scotland and now he will have the honor of presiding over the beginnings of the liquidation of the United Kingdom.

That the two of you like to produce irrelevant word salads does not make Scottish particularism any more serious as a dispensation.

"That the two of you like to produce irrelevant word salads does not make Scottish particularism any more serious as a dispensation."
Apparently you don't understand that wanting to be part of the European Union and be free from English political superstitions is exactly part of Scottish particularlism (other colonialists are less oblivious, after all, they used the idea of keeping Scotland outside the European Union as a club to comple them to remain-- well, what started as an exercise in English treachery may end as an exercise in futility if Scotland decides to leave anyway. All those lies wasted.).

I do not 'understand' it because it's nonsensical.

Well, people actualy charged with some responsibility (for instance, the people who used UK's membership in the European Union) as a club against Scotland back in the Scottish Referendum) understand it. I guess it is enough.

The New Hebrides should also get a vote on remaining in the UK. They voted strongly against independence last year.

They (and the oil in their waters) might prefer the Royal Navy defending them.

sure, prior, she's playing that card. she would wouldn't she. as ruth davidson pointed out, 1.6 million scots might have voted to remain in the EU, but just 2 years ago 2 million scots voted to remain in the UK, and the last thing we need right now if more division.

'and the last thing we need right now if more division'

As if the leave voters cared about that before reality started to intrude in their fantasies.

In Greece, the fact that the population voted for Leave at least once if not twice, if memory serves, did not stop the Greek PM Tsipras from negotiating as if Remain had won. Then again, the rumor has it Tsipras was secretly paid off by French and German banks to Remain, but I don't think the UK pols could be so bribed.

Why do you say Abe's status has fallen but not Obama's? Do you you include Obama in "Cameron and Co."?

He says he's going to miss BO (though he said nothing in particular about BO's pant creases). Ergo, BO's status cannot fall.

Will economists now loudly remind the EU that any trade barriers it erects to punish the British would be terrible and irrational, as they would hurt the remaining EU nations?

I find it interesting to see the same people who portray the EU as a force for free trade are now gloating at the protectionist measures it will use to "punish" the UK.

There is no more prospect of the United Kingdom being able to pick and choose what elements of the EU it wants to keep than there is of Scottish doing the same vis-à-vis the European Union, and for the same reasons.

The Scots want to keep what they have - this should not be such a difficult hurdle in terms of talking with EU.

Well, that is one way to frame it.

Another way to frame it is that England now has the same opportunities concerning free trade with the EU that Pakistan, Kenya, and Jamaica do - and that since voters in the UK voluntarily decided to leave behind the burdens of being in the EU, the rest of the EU is likely to be extremely puzzled when the British expect to be treated differently from Pakistan, Kenya, and Jamaica.

Europeans are not Americans - they believe in free trade to the extent that it benefits them, which is why the EU does not allow each member nation to compete without all members following the same rules. Rules which the UK has now rejected, by the way.

When somebody leaves, it is not punishment to treat them the way their actions indicate they want to be treated - as not allowing Brussels to tell the English what to do (the Scots and Northern Irish seem fine with Brussels having more authority than London). The amusing thing, Brussels will still tell the British what to do - if only in terms of gaining access to the common market that the UK has now rejected.

Well...not exactly. Germany sells a hell of a lot more cars to the UK than it does to Pakistan, Kenya and Jamaica.

It sure does - and a number of Germans who live and work in the UK will no longer have the automatic right to live there. Take your pick which one plays a larger role.

Hint - Germans tend to understand that there is a cost to following rules, and tend to be willing to pay that cost as long as the rules are followed. The British have just said the rules no longer apply to them - do you seriously think the Germans say fine, we need to sell a few more cars, who cares about whether our EU employees can actually live in the UK?

We will see what happens, but I'm still expecting the Germans to act pretty much the way Germans act when it comes to following the rules. Including what happens to those who are proud to declare that the rules no longer apply to them.

The British have just said the rules no longer apply to them

Self-governing people set their own rules. Must be a confusing idea in krautlandia.

"I’m still expecting the Germans to act pretty much the way Germans act"

Invading Poland?

“I’m still expecting the Germans to act pretty much the way Germans act”

Starting and losing a World War?

'Self-governing people set their own rules. Must be a confusing idea in krautlandia.'

Or in America, where the federal government, having won a war, has forever settled the question of whether citizens of states can even pretend to be 'self-governing people.' Oddly, though, it is still called the United States of America, where it probably is more accurately described as the Republic of DC and all its territories.

Set your bar where you wish, of course - but the Scots are about to show the UK that self-governing people set their own rules, too. One wonders if that idea will be as confusing in Westminster?

“I’m still expecting the Germans to act pretty much the way Germans act”

Showing obvious indications of a superiority complex and schadenfreude?

“I’m still expecting the Germans to act pretty much the way Germans act”


'Showing obvious indications of a superiority complex and schadenfreude?'

Well, let us check the Spiegel English edition first article - 'The Brits have voted to leave the EU. It was a democratic decision and we have no choice but to come to terms with the loss. But it's also time for a reckoning: If we don't become more passionate about the European Union, we will lose it.' http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-editorial-if-we-don-t-love-europe-we-will-lose-it-a-1099602.html Yep, sounds typically German - a need to respect the rules, and get to work to keep things from getting worse.

Let's try the FAZ - 'Warum wir eine neue Rebellion brauchen

Der Brexit ist ein Votum der Älteren gegen eine weltoffenere Jugend. Es verändert die Zukunft von Millionen jungen Europäern. Zum ersten Mal begrenzt eine Generation die Chancen der Nachfahren, statt sie zu erweitern. /

Why we need a new rebellion

Brexit is a vote of the old against the young who are more open to the world. It changes the futures of millions of yound Europeans. For the first time, one generation is limiting the chances of a younger one, instead of expanding them.'

Yep, the schadenfreude is just dripping from that one.

"Yep, the schadenfreude is just dripping from that one."

I guessed you missed this:

"Would a Brexit be Good for Europe? A Schadenfreude Letter from Berlin

And here’s the real Schadenfreude: by choosing to ‘leave’, is there not an in-built punishment for the British decision? Racist populism would be rewarded with isolation on a rain-swept island that has long lost its Imperial lustre. A former power that hangs on the coattails of America––but, in the words of Obama, will be forced to the ‘back of the queue’ for transatlantic trade talks––would become a minor country. England would enter the end-game of its managed decline, despite its delusional self-importance."


Interesting - I post the top articles from two of Germany's largest news sources, and your response is the writing of someone who isn't even German? - 'Joseph Pearson is a writer based in Berlin. Born in Canada, he was educated at Cambridge University, UK, where he received his doctorate in history in 2001. He is currently writing a non-fiction portrait of Berlin for a London-based publisher (forthcoming 2016).'


Hold on is p_a literally saying someone not born in Germany has no business speaking on behalf of the German people, or claiming that he understands them.

"Hold on is p_a literally saying someone not born in Germany has no business speaking on behalf of the German people, or claiming that he understands them."

LOL, yes that's exactly what he's doing. Without even a hint that he understands the underlying irony.

Hey prior_approval, I heard this guy wrote something negative about Cambridge. What a jerk, am I right?

The Germans and the French export a lot more to the UK than they import from the UK. So what are the odds the French and Germans will erect trade barriers against the UK? Seems like they would be putting a lot of their people out of work. And frankly, if they do that kind of thing out of spite, then the UK really shouldn't be in an economic union with those sort of people. That's a childish reaction, not one of sensible grown ups.

'So what are the odds the French and Germans will erect trade barriers against the UK?'

Whatever odds the French and Germans wish - the UK will play no role in setting those odds from this point on. But they will not be 'erecting' anything - a non-member of the EU is treated, unsurprisingly one would have thought before this comment thread, as a non-member.

'And frankly, if they do that kind of thing out of spite, then the UK really shouldn’t be in an economic union with those sort of people.'

It is no longer in an economic union - and why anyone thinks that a former member of such a union gets to have any future say in that union remains one of the more mystifying aspects of this comment thread, even factoring in that most Americans have essentially no understanding of the EU.

>they believe in free trade to the extent that it benefits them

And how does protectionism against the UK benefit them, exactly?

Since when does voting to voluntarily leave an organization end up being protectionism when the organization that one has left says that as a non-member, you now have all the same rights and privileges of all other non-members. That is, the rights and privileges we decide to grant to any non-member, which you freely chose to be.

This remains so strange - I'm betting that most people commenting here don't have any idea what SEPA means, or how the British banking industry has now woken up to learn that it will likely no longer be a part of it, due to a self-governing people deciding that being part of a continent wide payment system is too much of a burden for them to deal with. A payment system that was forced upon them, obviously against their will, right? The payment system that currently is used for essentially all domestic banking transactions at the personal and commercial level within the entire EU (SEPA is not about the euro, as a reminder).

Unless one thinks that it would be protectionism for those who reject an organization to be denied all the benefits offered only to members.

The fantasy vision was taking back control - the reality will be watching how little control will remain in major areas of British life, as the EU will have zero interest in an ex-member's desires and dreams. The British have just lost all those carefully crafted exemptions and exceptions designed to placate their own needs - this is not protectionism, it is simply letting the British go their own way, without any interference from Brussels at all.

He already said, " they believe in free trade to the extent that it benefits them, which is why the EU does not allow each member nation to compete without all members following the same rules. Rules which the UK has now rejected, by the way." Sorry, but the times of "Fog in Channel; Continent Cut Off" are over the Engilsh will have to learn that acts have consequences.

The EU are idiots if they don't reach a free trade agreement with the UK. US will benefit.

Including England was a mistake since the beginning and de Gaulle said so.

'The EU are idiots if they don’t reach a free trade agreement with the UK.'

From a certain perspective, the EU would be idiots if they continued to offer Honda, Toyota, Caterpillar etc. access to the EU market while having facilities in the UK.

And don't think that a certain part of the the EU establishment is not mulling over the best way to increase employment in the EU while not caring a whit about British unemployment. Subsidies, incentives - and keeping the British from full access to the EU market in a way that creates sufficient cause for Toyota et al to shift from the UK.

The leave voters are going to get what they want - no interference from Brussels in UK affairs. What they are also going to discover is that Brussels can offer a lot more to international companies than London can. No one will be pretending to care about the UK, after all.

FWIW Abe in Japan got a lot of criticism for postponing a scheduled tax raise, which he did allegedly because of "bad signs in the global economy".
A month later and, voila, a really bad global economy, validating his decision to postpone the tax raise. He's being praised widely right now.

Trump is in Scotland to negotiate building the

NEW Hadrian's Wall separating England from Scotland

If Scotland separates and remains in the EU.

Think of all those EU foreigners, once again, amassing on the Scottish side of the wall,

Once again threatening to slip across the border to enter England.

They will need a wall.

It will be HUGE.

What about Carrara Marble?

No, I've got some really, really dense rock I want to sell you to build that wall.

Like my head.

I call it Trump Rock.

The English will pay for it.

Trust me.

Maybe the tourists will pay for it. He could sell tickets to see the new Hadrian Wall (or new Wall of Shame, as the Remain people would say, or new Wall of Wailing, as the Leave people would say about the complainers). He just needs to build another wall to prevent people from getting to the wall without paying (something like the Berlin Wall, with watchtowers, spotlights, soldiers, dogs and barbed-wire fences). He could sell tickets to this wall, too. But them he would have to build a third wall to prevent people from visiting the second wall witout paying. And so on. He can build walls from the Atlantic to the Urals and from the Mediterranean to the Channel. It is almost like a license to print money.

A great quote from the National Review:

"On the train this morning, I listened to a left-wing British woman complaining bitterly about the stupidity of her fellow citizens. Her points were all about lost EU subsidies for construction projects and the indignity of having to use the “non-EU” line at passport control when traveling to the continent (I’ll save a spot for you!). It seemed not to have occurred to her that more abstract concepts such as democratic legitimacy, self rule, and national identity matter to people as goods in themselves."


They elect their representative to the EU parliament, so now they will not have that voice. As to nationalism, that is a nose ring that let's some demagogue put his finger in to lead you by the nose, so just to say nationalism is to say nothing. Say self interest, and you might mean something, in which case you have to question the decision to be on the outside in dealing with a trading block that will set the rules against you. As to national identity, I doubt that any of the remaining EU countries will lose that...they will still have their own culture, music, food, and politics, and they will be able to move goods across internal borders without paying tariffs or waiting for an arbitrary visa allocation.

The EU parliament is virtually powerless, it doesn't have the ability to propose new laws. That voice is worthless.

So, the power is held by no one.

That makes sense.

The EU bureaucracy is the very definition of rent-seeking. If you want free trade and free movement, then the sovereigns can just sign treaties: tariffs = zero and passports of member nations will be accepted for entrance.

The EU is basically a compact among the elite to extract wealth from their own people. All these trans-national organizations should be smashed.

It's held by bureaucracy whose interests are not aligned with those of Europe as a whole.

Institutions need to be designed with interest-alignment and public choice problem minimization in mind, the EU has done literally the exact opposite.

Anon, refresh your understanding of EU governance by going here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union

"while Parliament can amend and reject legislation, to make a proposal for legislation, it needs the Commission to draft a bill before anything can become law."

And the Commission is an unelected body (with the exception of one member, who is elected indirectly).

Anon, Either you choose not to read or you choose not to understand, or both. The Parliament amends, passes or rejects legislation.

Why will they set the rules against the British? It will hurt the EU to do so. Are the remaining members of the EU willing to spite themselves to spit on the British?

I think Merkel's working paper calls for the British to have an associated membership status, but not set the terms so as to encourage France and Italy to exit.

Sounds right. So the EU may self-inflict a few economic wounds in order to advance non-economic interests.

The EU will not make it pleasant, so as to both send a message and capitalize on businesses reestablishing themselves in the EU.
From today's Guardian, UK edition:

"A senior EU leader has confirmed the bloc wants Britain out as soon as possible, warning that David Cameron’s decision to delay the start of Brexit negotiations until his successor is in place may not be fast enough.

Martin Schulz, the president of the European parliament, told the Guardian that EU lawyers were studying whether it was possible to speed up the triggering of article 50 – the untested procedure for leaving the European Union.

“Uncertainty is the opposite of what we need,” Schulz said, adding that it was difficult to accept that “a whole continent is taken hostage because of an internal fight in the Tory party”."

'and capitalize on businesses reestablishing themselves in the EU'

Bingo. The leave voters are about to discover that a large number of international companies care little about the UK as a market in itself, but only used the UK as a way to gain access to the EU common market.

"capitalize on businesses reestablishing themselves in the EU"

Protectionism can bring the jobs back?

Trade war would be a very risky move, and not just for the obvious reasons. If the EU tries to boss the UK around and fails, that might be a threat to its very existence. Why would member countries want to stick around in an organization that starts trade spats out of spites, then proceeds to lose?

Hey, AB, do you feel 10% richer this morning. Markets telling you something, or maybe you dont care to listen. Better buy those beans and rice, they are going up by 10% and you are going to need them.

The markets are indicating that they believe in the irrationality of the EU. That seems like a pretty good reason, long-term, to leave.

Turkey Vulture, By that logic, the British stock market should have surged, because they are exiting. Your logic--I don't want to call it that--would say that if a country wishes to inflict a wound on itself, then other trading partners should either be unaffected or should benefit. Where's the logic in that. If you injure your own economy those who trade with you will also suffer as well. Decreased demand and higher transaction costs for both parties.

"If you injure your own economy those who trade with you will also suffer as well. Decreased demand and higher transaction costs for both parties."

Yes, if the EU injures its own economy by vengefully erecting trade barriers against the British, it will suffer as well. The markets seem to be expecting such irrationality.

Turkey, If you are a British software developer and you need your workforce to move freely within the EU to service your clients without getting work visas, would you stay in England, move to Ireland, or downsize your English operation and distribute your workforce with separate offices in local markets, thereby increasing your operating costs.

The EU would itself be best off to allow that workforce to freely move within the EU without getting work visas. But it may choose to injure itself in order to punish the British.

I put a gun to my head, pulled the trigger, and I did it to injure you. Sure. No, I just made a bad choice using emotions rather than reason. Live with it, or, rather die from it.

I hand you my loaded-but-unused gun, say "I'm leaving, but we can still be friends," and you shoot me in the foot through your own hand on the way out.

Or streamline a work visa/passport with the country and swipe going thru customs.

Or dual citizenship.

Dual citizenship is nonsense.

I'm a West Country software developer and service only a local clientele. That other fellow's problem is of no concern.

Markets reacting strongly in the short term to a big surprise is hardly the final economic word.

You do realize nationalism is a 19th century construct that sprung from the Romantic movement don't you? True, Greece used this to her advantage to free herself from the ~400 year Turkish yoke, as my forefathers in GR used to their advantage (I'm famous in Greece because of my last name), but arguably any modern movement towards sovereignty is flawed unless the people are being enslaved by somebody else. It's not 100% clear the Greeks were enslaved by the Turks, though it's a close call as the Ottomans got 67% of their revenue from Greece, not the non-Greek Arab lands, so arguably the Greeks were indeed somewhat like "slaves" that traditional Greek schoolboy history claims, e.g., the drive for a modern Greek state was justified. Or, as TC has said: why should have the USA rebelled vs England? Why not go the route of Australia, Canada? Arguably staying with the UK would have avoided the US Civil War over slavery.

PS--this Adam Khan poster tweet is cool: Antti Pietikäinen ‏@farcentrist 7h7 hours ago - #Brexit to be followed by Grexit. Departugal. Italeave. Fruckoff. Czechout. Oustria. Finish. Slovakout. Latervia. Byegium

"Why not go the route of Australia, Canada?" Because it wasn't offered. Why didn't the EU offer a more flexible arrangement for members states?

If your answer is to brush back your powdered wig and declare that national self-government is an antiquated concept that no longer has any place in today's world, then you shouldn't be surprised how people feel about that if given the opportunity to vote.

That list is amusing, if probably inaccurate. We could add: Thitherlands. Fleechtenstein. Fluxembourg.

A "nation" is a territory too big for self-rule and identity. As a guy born in a large country I can tell my identity is shared by people 100 km around hometown. The others are in the same country, but they are others.

What will be the change in transaction costs over time in trading between England and the EU. Border waits. Border inspections. Denied visas to do service contracting jobs in the EU. Two sets of legal specialists...one for English law, one authorized to practice in the EU. Common certifications for product standards rather than ala carte standards designed to protect locals. Trade rules and product standards designed by the largest trading partner...what could go wrong with that.

Border waits?

We have the TSA.

I traveled Europe when it had those.

There were also decades when the U.S. didn't need passports to Canada and Mexico.

Things change, people adapt.

The elites don't like the status quo upended. The peasants are revolting......again!

Good luck on your daily commute. Good luck on that meeting in Paris when they ask you for the work visa.

Well, I guess this will help cut down on global warming, since most meetings could be done via video?

It's a win-win!

It's like Europe is back to the early 90s!

How horrible!

If only there were advancements in technology to process things faster.

I know! Scotland has only 4 million? People.

Resettle them to the continent, declare it neutral ground and turn it into a massive convention center and sports retreat!

Vibrant, sovereign nation-states. True diversity. Globalism is unaccountable bureaucracy, squalor, shallow consumerism.


Down with multi-culti globalism. F--- this gay ideology.

Gaining and losing status in which social matrix? The Mercatus Center staff lounge?

Actually, I'm fairly certain most Irish are feeling very uncertain about their status right now.

"Advocates of economic self-interest theories of voting"

Woo boy....

London bankers in general

Again, the best and most sober look at all this is Richard North's "Flexcit" document: http://eureferendum.com/Flexcit.aspx. The EU was the brain-child of a disconnected and disaffected administrative class with imperial ambitions. The UK voted instead for a post-colonial destiny. Good for them. I'd like to add my congratulations to the UK for voting as it did.

Problem with Tyler is that he is a smart White man who allows "status" to be defined by the enemies of White men. Sure, the enemies of the White man are in power now. But think about the future. The house negro had higher status than the field negro in his own day. But today everyone has more respect for the field negro. Multiculturalism will be looked on as an ideology of cuckoldry, an ideology of long-term suicide. In the long term it will be the people of England and Wales who increased in status, not the Scottish and Irish.

I very much enjoy the wailing of liberals around the world, it is a guilty pleasure.

I also rather enjoyed taking their money this morning as they sold US assets in a panic as they thought that the world was going to end. Thank you liberals, thank you.

I also am enjoying the liberal elite take a fall as they predicted a world wide fall and now saner heads are showing them to be nothings.

I really enjoy the British stock market tanking and the price of imports in Britain rising by 10%.

I'm so sorry I took you money, liberal. I do have to admit, it felt very, very good.

Go away and find a place to cry, liberal. You nothing, you zero.

Never bet against the stupidity of your fellow citizens.

Flyovers vs. coastals. Come on, some want to dump Texas, Kansas, etc, while others want to dump NYC and Cali.

lol at the left now all concerned about the stock market

Markets may tell you things that are contrary to your emotionally based beliefs.

Markets collapsing, FTSE at levels not seen since last Friday.

They don't like the uncertainty. They will adjust. Winks and nods, traffic will flow although more slowly for awhile.

Britain wasn't using the Euro, that should be a help.

But only when they say what I want them to say. If they say something different, they can't be trusted.

Obama could have remained neutral or turned it into a win, but he hates them.

Markets predicting the EU reacts like a crazed spouse in a divorce, harming both parties rather than pursuing a mutually-beneficial life separately.

They've laid waste southern European labor markets and invited hordes of 'Syrians' to come settle in Europe. The smart money's on vandalism.

The "merchants" love to stir the pot. As I'm sure you're aware.

I need popcorn.

Boring law people from the Cambrigde (England) say that the next station in Brexit train is not happiness but more incertitude. Scotland and Northern Ireland have now another reason to leave the UK. https://publiclawforeveryone.com/2016/06/24/brexit-legally-and-constitutionally-what-now/

The UK will be fine in or out of the EU, the problem will be really for the EU leaders, now any difficult discussions are not going to be resolved by negotiation, but by threats to exit. Previously this was unthinkable so the various countries in the EU eventually came to a compromise. But now the unthinkable has happened.

I am in a very mixed place on all this. I loved the free movement of labour, the prohibition of subsidies and free market principles of the EU. I hated though the rent seeking, the agriculture policy and the regulations.

I agree, the idea of free movement of labor and free trade was laudable. However, the modern liberal is not about that, the modern liberal is about imposing his world view on others, and the current path is through regulation of all things. Sadly, the modern liberal has taken over the EU and it must die.

I wish that there was another way.

I loved... the prohibition of subsidies

The what now?

Eureferendum.com has a running commentary as the votes came in. I haven't been there in years.

Anyway the biggest English winners of yesterday were Led Zeppelin.

Lawyers, don't forget lawyers!

Years of uncertainty and renegotiation, it's a paradise for lawyers.
Immediately after the referendum, I saw an unprecedented increase in Britons contacting me for German citizenship/passports: https://andreasmoser.wordpress.com/2016/06/26/blog-statistics-brexit/

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