Measuring the Trump presidency as it evolves, three economic indicators to watch for

Hardly anyone I know is calibrating their rhetoric to observed asset market prices.  Here is one bit from my latest Bloomberg column:

Along these lines, my first nomination for a Trump-related market indicator is an index of Baltic stocks, namely the OMX Baltic Benchmark Index. It is a common and serious worry that the connections of the Trump administration to Russia will lead the U.S. to forsake the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and cave to the demands of President Vladimir Putin. If that is the case, the Baltics are likely to be among the biggest losers.

The good news is that Baltic stocks are up roughly 20 percent over the last year and generally have been rising. While they dipped following Trump’s election, they have since regained that ground and then some.

That doesn’t prove relations with Russia will move along a good track, but it is a calming sign.

Hysterical tweets should be accompanied by asset price contemplation and indeed asset price Auseinandersetzung.  In addition to laying out two other economic indicators for the Trump years, I wrote this too:

Looking across the board, I find some of the above data puzzling, because the rosy read from the first two indicators does not reflect my strongest worries about the forthcoming Trump administration. U.S. stock indices are up, too.

I’ll be watching these indicators with interest because I know that someone is going to be proven wrong, and that is what science — and investing — is all about.

I also consider that a strong and rising dollar could in fact be the biggest problem for the global economy, do read the whole thing.


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