USA fact of the day

Despite President Trump’s push for tougher immigration enforcement, U.S. agents are on pace to deport fewer people in the government’s 2017 fiscal year than during the same period last year, the latest statistics show.

Here is much more, by Nick Miroff.  There are many points of interest, for instance ICE removals peaked in 2012 under President Obama.


Well, this is just intelligent planning - first, we need a see thru wall to make sure the deported don't catapult themselves back into the U.S., after all, and injure any American citizens. As noted by the president - '"They have catapults. They throw it over the wall, and it lands and it hit somebody on the head. You don't even know they're there. Believe it or not, this is the kind of stuff that happens." Trump said.

Believe it or not, that is a direct quote from the President of the United States of America.

Strange that you would pick out the catapult thing, which was about drugs and actually made sense

Not strange. Typical.

Drugs, deportees, an illegal batch of queso fresco - anything can be catapulted and hit someone on the head, at least in the world our president seemingly lives in.

A world where he said this, in that same speech - '"If you can't have vision through it, you don't know who's on the other side," he said.

"You need to have a great wall, but it has to be see-through," Trump said. "We're looking at different samples already of see-through walls. And, I think also, to be honest with you, a see-through wall would look better."

"I'm going to out and look at them personally, going to pick the right one."'

Wouldn't want any deportees skulking behind a wall we cannot see through, right?

Could it be that the President's stance has been enough to convince many to leave voluntarily? I believe so and if so then the President has been a resounding success.

“Lord, I believe; help my unbelief!”
now you can work on the size of the crowd at his inauguration and his popular vote margin of 'victory'

You and Tyler both need to get over losing the election. I think the evidence shown here is evidence for the success of the President's rhetorical strategy.

you do? I think the evidence shown here is evidence that he has done frighteningly little. This is not evidence that there are fewer immigrants living illegally in the country. Just evidence that the machinery is working less effectively.

"he has done frighteningly little."

On my view of government, this is almost impossible.

Every morning Trump briefs the foremen of the ICE sweep crews and tells them to kick back some, have an extra cup of coffee, a long lunch and leave for home a little early.

From the article"
"The number of people attempting to sneak across the U.S. border with Mexico fell dramatically in the months following Trump’s inauguration, reducing the supply of easy-to-deport immigrants."

ICE arrests are running about 10-15% of total deportation numbers, so this quote:

"Despite President Trump’s push for tougher immigration enforcement, U.S. agents are on pace to deport fewer people in the government’s 2017 fiscal year than during the same period last year, the latest statistics show."

is really apples and oranges.

1. Whenever someone criticizes trump, remind them that he won the election.
2. Repeat.

this is what i don't get more than anything. so if he won, that means he can do no wrong?

so doesn't that mean obama did no wrong for 8 years since he won twice?

Have you read the article? It talks about how the number of illegal crossings has lowered below historical levels. So there is no doubt that Trump's rhetoric is working at some level. The article also talks about how that same rhetoric has created more funding for law firms to defend illegals being deported, so that impacts that number too.

I wonder if even Tyler has read the article... weird times.

I have started worrying that Tyler might be having a mental breakdown as he cannot cope with the President's successes.

that's one answer. The other answer is that in fact the US is a less desirable destination, than it used to be for other reasons.

Given that our economy is growing quite consistently and unemployment is at historical low levels I think this is not the case.

Knowing how the Democratics in Congress keep blocking the President's appointments it could very well be the case that the leftover appointments from Obama within DHS are actually sabotaging the President's agenda.



Well fewer people are coming in, since they know the US is going to suck from here on out.

They'd already left.

"if so then the President has been a resounding success."

Trump's biggest flaw is that he is a torture-blackmailing entity. He went on a stage and yelled, "Waterboarding is absolutely fine!" to his supporters' applause.

There is a fundamental moral principle never to cooperate with torture-blackmailers. This is both a deontological principle and a rule-utilitarian guideline of considerable game-theoretic importance.

The severity of torture cannot be overstated. The negative utility of this extreme experience, deliberately inflicted by intelligent agents, has the potential to make intelligence itself a massively net-negative phenomenon in the universe, by creating a game-theoretic equilibrium where agents blackmail each other with severe intrinsic negative utility. The resulting world may well be one that is worse than an empty one even on bullet-biting utilitarian terms, since the intensity of torture is far greater than any pleasure-equivalent per unit time.

No one can expect Trump or his supporters to understand any of this, but they could have understood something like, "Guys, we don't torture people, okay? We use other methods to stop our enemies and make people behave!" That's what he should have yelled, and that's what they should have cheered on.

This is also why the non-consensual spanking of children as a punishment mechanism needs to be universally illegal and socially not accepted.

If you believe that deportations peaked under Obama, I've got a wall on the border to sell you. Seriously, that doesn't make TC's BS detector go off, at all?

It's been pointed out to him before that Obama changed the definition of "deported." Signaling?

Like it's booming economy.

"ICE removals peaked in 2012 under President Obama."

Obama changed the definition of "deportation" to include illegal border crossers caught in the act. That inflated his statistics.

Wow, two imposters in one day. I never tire of the liberals' tears. Keep whipping those dead horses, Ty!

It's msgkings.

Wrong again Art. At least you are no longer blaming paid interns.

Those things are not mutually exclusive.

Oh right, I'm a paid intern. Dammit, you are too clever for me!

I have my doubts about the "paid" part.

No, Art's correct. Everyone knows bloggers pay good money to have people sock puppet and anonymously troll their posters. Tyler Cowen is famous for this.

"Despite President Trump’s push for tougher immigration enforcement, U.S. agents are on pace to deport fewer people . . . ." That makes no sense. If Trump is tough on immigration, then who would he deport?

err, the millions that are already here illegally.

The money isn't in the deportations, the money is in the arrest and storage in private prisons. You can use them as free labor, get daily cost reimbursements from the feds, charge them for food, charge them to use the phone, charge any visitors that come. Why throw them out of the country when you can keep milking them and their families.


OT : why is the Fiscal year Oct-Sept ? Recommended by farmer's Almanac? Or because its hard to get a Jan-Dec Budget in place with change of Administrations etc ? Why not Apr-Mar ? why do some states have Jul-June?

Congress changed it from June-July in 1976 so they would have more time to do the budget.

The part that is really interesting to me is "In a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted last week, 62 percent of Americans said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of immigration."

I wonder what exactly these people disagree with. This immigration debate is one of the more frustrating issues (along with abortion) in our public discourse. People don't like what we have, want to ignore the system, but are incapable of formulating how a new law should work.

These days people just sort of disapprove of everything. Lotta whining in the modern world.

If you want them here for their labor but don't want to see them, hear them, have their kids go to your school, or let them accumulate any wealth how can you be satisfied with any policy solution?

See the Persian Gulf states.

+1 great societies.

Jim loves this stuff. When you own a person and they have no rights, you're the boss! And don't get me started on the construction, slaves!

You need a /sarc tag for the retards we have here like Jan.

If the world majority could force South Africa to grant the descendants of Bantu work immigrants equal rights, why not do the same to the gulf states?

A bangla majority democratic Bahrain or Abu Dhabi would be an interesting spectacle.

Correct me if wrong, but those worker populations don't typically have kids and families in-country, unless they're the sort of white collar class, right? So it's not really the descendants of those people who have been there generations we're talking about, but what status the current immigrant population has.

Perhaps the analogy is not that great, however in Kuwait, I am pretty sure there are families having lived there many generations that are not citizens of Kuwait.

I love the comments in these sorts of posts. When the evidence disagrees with your feelings just discard the evidence! Deportations peaked under Obama? Then good work Trump and also the evidence is a lie. At the same time no less. Lol

Is it embarrassing to still be unaware of the history of the definition of deportation?

There you go again talking about your feelings. 40+ comments so far and no one wants to mention the reduction in illegal immigration due to the cratering of the home construction industry? Just your feelings? Okay got it.

What do his feelings have to do with you bringing up a new subject after he posted? You're being ridiculous.

Benna Leva your comment is a great example of projection.

No no no it is the great POTUS who, with his strong spine and inspiring rhetoric, has alone stopped the illegal immigration.

But that change does not seem to have applied, at least in mid-May according to Acting Immigration and Customs Enforcement Director Thomas Homan - 'Homan said the arrest increase came from stepped up enforcement, adding that morale has improved among agents under Trump because they were "allowed to do their job."

"Their job is to enforce the law, and that is exactly what they're doing, he said.

While arrests of immigrants targeted by agents rose, the number of deportations fell 12 percent during the period, Homan said.

He attributed the drop to a decline in arrests on the U.S.-Mexico border where immigrants are usually shipped home quickly and a lengthy backlog in U.S. immigration courts that issue deportation orders.'

In other words, the decline in deportations was not due to a changing definition, but to a decline people being caught at the U.S.-Mexican border, and then subsequently deported - without changing the definition of 'deported' at all. Strangely, one would think that this 'decline' in deportations would be trumpeted by Trump supporters, instead of apparently blaming Obama for changing the definition of deportations to include the definition still in force under the Trump Administration, at least in mid-May.

The below-the-fold take-away from the article is that arrests are up 40%, so deportations would be up 40% if it weren't for the ramp-up of meddling leftist lawyers.

+1 Lawfare strikes again

"Lawfare (n) - Any litigation the speaker dislikes"

Lawfare is when progressives want to abuse the court system to obstruct the law.

I hate courts because I keep losing in Family Court to my whore wife and my cuckolder. My lawyer cucked me too.

Oh, it's abuse because you don't like it? Is it legal? Is it their right?

Arrests count for 10-15% of deportations, so you can't compare the two one-for-one like that.

Or perhaps not everyone arrested by ICE is guilty of a deportable violation of immigration law. It is interesting how some of the same people who moan about corrupt, incompetent bureaucrats think that ICE is somehow special. Sorry, they are cut from the same cloth as every other government bureaucracy. In one particularly egregious case, a naturalized American named Davino Watson was held in ICE custody for three years due to stupidity and gross negligence on the part of the agents investigating Watson's claim to citizenship.

You do realize that Obama changed the terms to include those turned away at the border as, "deported," right?

Has anyone changed the definition back though?

Honest question - if so, it would be one of those signs of the Trump Administration actually following through on a policy which would also make it look statistically worse to its supporters.

Because this article from mid-May seems to suggest a certain continuity in definitions between administrations, and a a certain continuity in trends - 'Immigration arrests increased by nearly 40 percent in early 2017 as newly emboldened agents under President Donald Trump detained more than 40,000 people suspected of being in the country illegally — with a renewed focus on immigrants without criminal convictions.

The numbers released by Acting Immigration and Customs Enforcement Director Thomas Homan provide a snapshot of how the new president is carrying through on his campaign promises to make immigration enforcement a top priority.

Overall, 41,300 people were arrested for deportation. Nearly 11,000 had no criminal conviction, more than double the number of immigrants without criminal convictions arrested during a comparable period last year.

Even so, deportations carried out were down from late January to late April compared to a year ago despite the new president's stepped up immigration enforcement effort.'

So Obama was a racist nazi?

Yes, sadly. Did you see the brown suit he wore that time?

Come on, there are fine people on both sides, after all.

1) Illegal immigration nosedived in the recession and hasn't really gone back up
1a) That was due to a crappy economy and loss of construction jobs in particular, but the low numbers persist despite an economic recovery, including positive construction employment trend
1b) Yeah Trump screaming about illegals all the time had an impact as well, but impossible to know how much of an impact (same with 1a)
2) the total number of illegal immigrants in the country has stabilized at 11 - 12 million
3) The flailing to been seen as doing something tough of immigration has had interesting and costly consequences
3a) e.g. DOJ redeployed a lot of immigration judges with already full dockets to the border to adjudicate detained border cases, but when they arrived many judges had nothing to do; meanwhile their home city dockets keep growing
4) the share of illegal immigrants that have been here 10 years or more has skyrocketed; the share who are recent arrivals has declined significantly.

Comments for this post are closed