What did Ireland just vote for?

Sinn Féin promises rent freezes and an expansion of public housing. It will tax corporations, particularly multinational companies. It offers a typical, left-of-centre shopping list, financed by borrowing and higher taxes on the rich.

And what about the IRA? In the past days, the connection between the IRA and Sinn Féin in the North has dominated headlines, but most voters in the Republic are weary of the past. One in four are prepared to give Sinn Féin a chance. It would be completely wrong to equate Sinn Féin’s votes with support for the IRA.

Here is more from the FT.  There is close to a three-way tie at the top, but31.8% of 18-24s voted Sinn Féin – more than FF and FG combined in that age group.”  And: “According to the exit poll, Sinn Féin now the most popular party in every age group under 65.”

And that is from Ireland, one of the biggest neoliberal success stories.  Martin Gurri something or other, yes, etc. yup, that’s right, Martin Gurri, etc.

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Sad!

Ireland is a success story because companies have moved there for lower taxes and regulations AND an educated English speaking work force. These new efforts will tend to negate all of that. Can that really be the intent???

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"And that is from Ireland, one of the biggest neoliberal success stories."

They sure love their neoliberal rent control and neoliberal progressive taxes, don't they?

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They voted for "free" stuff.

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I agree that Martin Gurri is a useful lens for 90% of what we're seeing in Ireland now. The results are very in keeping with an anti-establishment groundswell.

But keep in mind this caveat: The Revolt of the Public argues that the anti-establishment movements enabled by social media are "nihilistic". Movements like Occupy Wall St and the 2011 Israeli tent / social justice protests did not have a clear policy agenda. They were a howl of rage.

Yet for all it's being anti-establishment, Sinn Fein have a concrete agenda. As FT points out, "rent freezes... public housing... tax corporations... a typical, left-of-centre shopping list."

That's an important deviation from the Gurri hypothesis

A concrete agenda that Brexit brought a measurable step closer to being fulfilled, a century after Sinn Fein first made a big electoral splash in an Irish election.

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Ireland just voted for a mess. And writing "blah blah blah Martin Gurri, etc." seems kind of rude.

I didn't think it was rude since I just found out who Martin Gurri is, he's a blogger at Cato who writes about succession issues.

Well, there was this little blog post on 4 Feb. - Martin Gurri, philosopher and social scientist

Which contained this additional information - I am pleased to announce that Martin Gurri is joining Mercatus as an affiliated scholar. As you probably may know, Martin is the author of The Revolt of the Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium, one of the more important and more prophetic social science books of our time.

Seems you didn't know - now you do, thanks to Tyler, who clearly feels Gurri is a man to affiliate with as a scholar.

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Independently from the results, I am praising Irish STV in small districts as best practice PR system and useful model for overdue Italian (electoral system and Senate) reforms: on http://Lavoce.info E se copiassimo il sistema irlandese? See also Nicolaus Tidemann of Virginia Tech, academic promoter of STV, and Irish experts like Michael Gallagher (Trinity College Dublin) and David Farrell (University College Dublin).

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"What did Ireland just vote for?"
A healthy combination of nationalism and socialism?

"31.8% of 18-24s voted Sinn Féin – more than FF and FG combined in that age group." - Ireland has a successful economy but 15-24s are less likely to join the labor force than they are in US, Switzerland or the Netherlands.

Dare I say people who never held a job are more prone to economic gullibility? It is no coincidence that leftist parties across Europe are pushing for a reduction in voting-age.

(Ireland: 40%, US: 52.1%, CH: 62.2%, NL: 63.9%)

You might call it national socialism

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Bet they'll do something nominally leftish but leave "Leprechaun Economics" untouched.

Their corporation tax changes will probably smash small business over the head and leave Big Business untouched.

It'll be about reassuring their vote base that Ireland is trendy and left wing, but actually substantially shifting economic model?

Sinn Fein just might be more interested in fully integrating Northern Ireland into the Irish Republic economy, and prefer actions to words.

Such as a referendum, to allow the Irish who voted to remain in the EU to take back control from the far off bureaucrats in London.

And Sinn Fein's voter base might be leftist, but they are also clearly more nationalistic than the other two Irish mainline parties. A voter base that undoubtedly includes many who see Brexit as an opportunity to finally achieve a long sought goal.

OK, prior, whatever.

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There looks to be something wrong with these voting stats Supposedly 31.8% of young people voted for SF, which is supposedly more than FF and FG combined. But that means there are nearly 40% who voted for none of those three parties, while I am unaware of there being any other noticeable parties running there. This cannot be right. Whassup?

They didn't say that 31.8% of those 18-24 who voted, voted for SF, but just 31.8%.

Turnout's something ridiculously low like 50-60% for 18-24 in the UK, probably not amazingly different in the Republic.

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Irish politics is a prime example of where the electorate will support wholeheartedly neoliberal reforms, when they deliver.

The fact that Ireland's politics has been (and still is predominantly) a competition between two hugely similar, neoliberal parties (FF and FG) as the country has gone from being significantly poorer than the UK in GDP per capita terms, to slightly richer over the past 40 years demonstrates this.

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First, they caused unnecessary suffering with violence now they want to cause even more mayhem and destruction with failed economic policies. Sad.

Defending your country from invaders and occupiers is noble. Supporting policies that help the Irish people, not multinational companies, is also noble.
The root cause of any mayhem and destruction in Ireland is the occupation of a foreign power. Tiocfaidh ár lá.

History of terrorism aside, let’s talk re helping “the Irish people, not multinationals.”

The London stock exchange lists over 2000 stocks. The Irish stock exchange lists 50, most of which are duplicates (more like 30 actual companies). You could count the globally competitive Irish businesses on your hands. 40 years ago we were a crippling poor country. Today we are one of the richest and amongst the worlds highest GDP per capita with incomes/quality of life comparable to the UK, Germany and Australia, even though we are barely an industrialised nation. We owe most of our prosperity to FDI in finance and technology and our pro-globalisation policies. Irish businesses parasitise that funding.

The Irish people as a whole, and especially younger generations, treat our current lifestyle like it is the norm, or even “earned”. Few realise just how far beyond our means we live in this country. As David McWilliams said, tech FDI in Ireland is like striking oil. We should have put the revenues in a huge sovereign wealth fund like Norway, but instead we used it to fund the country like Venezuela. If it dries up we could follow the same trajectory.

Sinn Fein want to borrow (raising what is already one of the largest national debts in the world) and tax corporations (devastating GDP when they leave) to fund their policies. It will be fantastic for 5 years, and condemn us to poverty for the subsequent 80. It’s a good thing we still remember how to emigrate en masse—we will probably need to again.

PS. You could argue Irish industry is so underdeveloped *because* of our reliance on multinationals. But, hey, you’ve got to pick a strategy and stick with it.

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As some who grew up on the border in the 70's I remember this, and like many older people fear its return....

It was first formulated by Sinn Féin organiser Danny Morrison at the party's Ard Fheis (Annual Conference) in 1981, when he said:

Who here really believes we can win the war through the ballot box? But will anyone here object if, with a ballot paper in this hand and an Armalite in the other, we take power in Ireland?[4]

.........In the 1998 GFA referendum 95% of southern voters approved abandoning the constitutional territorial claim on N.I. Many believe if SF gain power they will seek to overturn.

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The cost of making the Republic a tax haven is loss of political support from those who pay the price (in less government services and higher taxes). In the eyes of many of the young in the Republic, calling the Republic "one of the biggest neoliberal success stories" is a compliment to neither the Republic nor neoliberalism.

The Republic becoming a tax haven has mostly cost third countries, not the support base in the Republic.

Perhaps SF's supporters really do want to undermine that (and it's not just talk and feel-good rhetoric) because they feel it is morally wrong, or politically unsustainable and unreliable. Credibly, I guess. But if they think that "We have to pay tax because they are not paid by huge international corporations who wouldn't be here in the first place if we didn't have BEPS tax haven status, so let's get rid of BEPS tax haven status!" that would be stupidity in the extreme.

I can say with supreme confidence there is not a single SF voter in Ireland whose vote was based on increasing corporation taxes because it is not fair on third-party countries.

I would wager there are 3 kinds of SF voters:
1) Those that feel the housing crisis in Irish cities, and especially Dublin, has gotten wildly out of control and SF are the only party with a credible plan of an appropriate scale to solve the problem.
2) Ultra-nationalists. These can be easily identified by the persistent chanting of "Up the Ra!" and "Come out ye black and tans."
3) People who don't know or care about politics very much but know the other major parties have a track record of failing the country.

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So they are ignorant of reality and instead create strawmen to blame for whatever unhappiness they have in their lives? They look at the prosperity around them and wish that they could all be poor and on the dole? Has the Irish education system so failed the lower classes? Do they want to look to Venezuela as a model for success? Let's hope that the ignorance of their children does not destroy the prosperity that a previous generation created.

And their children's children? Irish demographics are following the Italian model, where young people can't afford to buy homes and start families. This is not success!

The housing bust led to a sudden halt in new construction then tighter lending standards and outmigration of construction workers. So why don't people want to be landlords in Dublin? High taxes, regulation, and red tape. It only makes sense if you are on the high end of the rental market. Dublin is actually losing landlords who don't want to deal with the headaches. Laws require that all new rental developments must include low-income housing. Public housing is a disaster in Dublin. Half the residents are behind on rent knowing that evictions are rare. Still, new construction is being built and housing prices are stable for the last year. Ramping up the construction industry is needed but unlikely to be helped by a turn to socialism. There is a fear that easing lending standards will just help inflate prices unless new construction occurs. So ask yourself, why in a country that sees prosperity and high housing prices do you see a failure for new construction to occur? Why aren't major employers moving to create satellite cities with new construction?

He is optimistic that one day Ireland can develop a healthy and sustainable system of housing. But he believes that a key problem at the moment is that the cost of construction, particularly of much-needed apartment buildings, has become unviable due to high construction costs.
He says that while house prices fluctuated, building costs steadily climbed, particularly those associated with increased regulation. "The minimum standards in Ireland are now among the most onerous in the world," he says.

He also believes more flexible use of urban land is required in Ireland, to encourage more high-rise development and less sprawl in a country whose few cities are famously low-rise.

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If they are interested in unification, that should put a brake on too much of a lurch in a leftist direction. And EU membership will be another (as we are going to see a much less neo-liberal (U?)K after Brexit than before).

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FT? Please, Gurri is closer to right, it's an incoherent scream. Read the manifesto and it is more like the Tea Party than anything else. We will make stuff cheaper, while also ensuring you pay no tax for the stuff.

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I think they may have voted for the party they saw as most likely to protect them from Britain...

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This was a vote for change. FG/FF are the status quo. FG/FF have both been complicit in housing/health care mess. FG/FF have also both been dragging their feet on unity referendum. SF promises one within 5 yrs. How come FG and FF see SF as suitable for Stormont but not for the Dail ?? What are they afraid of? Ans: Competition and possible political extinction. FG/FF are a political duopoly and I'd imagine they'll figure out a way to form another gov't. Hooking up with SF is suicidal. Both fear entering gov't with SF not necessarily on account of their IRA ties but because which ever party enters gov't with SF will be short lived. The "out" party has a viable political future not so for a failed partner of SF. Varadkar understands this. SF isn't going anywhere-they're here to stay. I cannot see either party hooking up with SF. FF/SDLP ? FG/Alliance? A FF/SF coalition in the Dail would be short lived and probably cripple FF more than last decade's banking crisis.

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As Irish Really enjoyed reading the comments.

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