If I believed in Austrian business cycle theory, 2020 edition

If I believed in Austrian business cycle theory, I would think that the Fed lowering interest rates and flooding the system with liquidity, post-2008, was a disastrous decision, associated with a cascade of corporate debt, an equity bubble, and massive indirect subsidies to inefficient, now-doomed-to-fail smaller companies.

The restructuring or bankruptcies of inefficient retail, high production cost energy companies, and bad European banks were postponed, but now the bloodbath will come.  The coronavirus will be seen as the immediate cause, but it also will turn out to have been the mere messenger of inevitable structural changes.

This will become clear as, post-coronavirus, so many of the companies from those sectors simply do not come back, nor will they birth more liquid replacements or counterparts.  We will end up with much more “big business,” and much more on-line commerce, and the status quo ex ante will have been revealed to be full of malinvestment.

Fortunately, I do not believe in Austrian business cycle theory.  And for those relatively new to MR, here is my 2005 post If I Believed in Austrian Business Cycle Theory.


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