It is better to do lots of tests, even if they are not entirely accurate

We find that the number of daily tests carried out is much more important than their sensitivity, for the success of a case-isolation based strategy.

Our results are based on a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, which is age-, testing-, quarantine- and hospitalisation-aware. This model has a number of parameters which we estimate from best-available UK data. We run the model with variations of these parameters – each of which represents a possible present state of circumstances in the UK – in order to test the robustness of our conclusion.

We implemented and investigated a number of potential exit strategies, focusing primarily on the effects of virus-testing based case isolation.

The implementation of our model is flexible and extensively commented, allowing us and others to investigate new policy ideas in a timely manner; we next aim to investigate the optimal use of the highly imperfect antibody tests that the United Kingdom already possesses in large numbers.

There is much more at the link, including the model, results, and source code.  That is from a team led by Gergo Bohner and also Gaurav Venkataraman, Gaurav being a previous Emergent Ventures winner.


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