Peter Navarro and the epistemic problem

A top White House adviser starkly warned Trump administration officials in late January that the coronavirus crisis could cost the United States trillions of dollars and put millions of Americans at risk of illness or death.

The warning, written in a memo by Peter Navarro, President Trump’s trade adviser, is the highest-level alert known to have circulated inside the West Wing as the administration was taking its first substantive steps to confront a crisis that had already consumed China’s leaders and would go on to upend life in Europe and the United States.

Here is the full story (NYT), and of course he wasn’t heeded.  I have disagreed with Navarro on most major issues, most of all on trade and quite possibly he is overpromoting chloroquine.  Still, I think we should reconsider in light of this new information.  I have not changed my mind on the previous issues, but should we not now all admit Navarro is, in expected value terms, one of the best advisors in recent memory in any administration?