The Bali heterogeneity?

From a Kevin Kelly email to me:

Another weird data point on the highly heterogeneous nature of this virus.

A friend of mine who lives in Bali says there have been 2 confirmed Covid-19 deaths on their island of 4.3 million residents. Yet according to him:

That makes it around 25.000 tourists from mainland China every week.

And until mid-January 2020, before the outbreak of the Corona pandemic, there were 5 direct flights from Wuhan per week.

During January 2020, 113,000 tourists from China visited Bali. During December 2019 when the Coronavirus was already spreading the number of arrivals from China was even higher because December is very busy in Bali.

So during the months of December 2019 and January 2020, approximately 220,000 tourists arrived from China alone.

Here are the official Covid-19 numbers as of 17th April 2020.

Confirmed cases: 113 | Recovered: 32 | Deaths: 2

The Crematorium in Bali’s capital city Denpasar does not see any increase in the number of cremations.

The hospitals do not have a flood of patients. There is hardly any talk on Social Media by people reporting about folks falling ill with Corona like symptoms.

The only thing I could find in Social Media groups is that business owners in Bali have reported an unusually high number of employees falling ill during November and December 2019.

Here is his Medium post


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