The macroeconomic costs of Covid-19

Our illustrative exercise implies a year-on-year contraction in U.S. real GDP of nearly 11 percent as of 2020 Q4, with a 90 percent confidence interval extending to a nearly 20 percent contraction. The exercise says that about 60 percent of the forecasted output contraction reflects a negative effect of COVID-induced uncertainty.

Here is much more, a full paper from Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Stephen J. Terry, an all-star team for this project.


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