Database of 1,100 superspreading events

It is about time someone put this together, here are some summary conclusions:

  • Nearly all SSEs in the database — more than 97% — took place indoors
  • The great majority of SSEs happened during flu season in that location
  • The vast majority took place in settings where people were essentially confined together, indoors, for a prolonged period (for example, nursing homes, prisons, cruise ships, worker housing)
  • Processing plants where temperatures are kept very low (especially meat processing plants) seem particularly vulnerable to SSEs

Here is the full material by Koen Swinkels, via Balaji.

Comments

But it is missing the important point. What we need to know is why it is fine for people supporting the Democrats to go out and loot while it is not OK for Orthodox Jewish children to play in a public park.

It is interesting that, apart from the meat packing plants, the rule seems to be government is bad for your health. Super spreading events seem to take place when the government confines you to a prison, a nursing home - or even under quarantine on a cruise ship.

I don't suppose it matters to your preconceived rant that the vast majority of the events occurred before government involvement in lock-downs began.

Not the nursing homes:50,000 deaths from nursing homes in the US to date. The lockdown didn’t seem to help them.
If you notice in the US the cases are now dropping slowly but the deaths even though they’re a lagging indicator are dropping faster.
That’s because most of the people getting infected now are younger on average and less will die.
Having a lockdown but no special measures targeted at nursing homes is not a good strategy.

Sending infected patients into nursing homes is not a good strategy either, yet that's exactly what several Democrat governors did. I notice our friend George didn't bring that up as an example of government involvement in lockdowns.

Mister, you changed the subject so fast, I'm gonna sue you for whiplash

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It doesn't matter because it is irrelevant. We are talking about Super Spreader events. Not very many of them seem to have taken place before the government started to get involved - or more likely, we have no data on events that may have taken place before the government got involved.

Singapore certainly had a private sector SSE at a business dinner. A British man returned from that and may have spread it to many different places. But the truth remains: the government was probably making things worse.

lol. paraphrased: don't bother me with facts; I know what I know

Have you ever his comments?

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The big superspreading event in Boston was a meeting held by a biopharmaceutical company which was not like the others that are listed. There is absolutely nothing surprising about the study

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Useful information for the DNC when they release Wave 2.

Are you retarded or something?

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This is good to know. What the political parties need to do is to organize brief pro forma conventions. People file in, cast their ballots, and file out. A possible alternative would be to hold the conventions in an outdoor arena with people spread out. Lots of people around each other cheering is pure poison. Church services need to discontinue hymn singing and hand shaking for some time.

Do we really need the conventions? We know who the candidates are.

Though one of them probably doesn't know who he is.

Yet the senile guy is gonna beat the orange guy.

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I always get Koen Swinkels on my frozen yogurt.

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The similarity that goes unmentioned for many of the early events is socialization. The purpose of the gathering matters less than the activity. It’s also interesting as to what is not on the list: college dorms, theaters and most workplaces.

I think most college dorms emptied out before this thing really started spreading. We know from Singapore's experience that the virus can spread quickly in dormitory settings. And the authorities in South Korea documented one big outbreak at a call center.

Right, which is why I said “most workplaces.” A call center is uniquely suited for spreading this virus because of the close quarters and constant talking. Dorms were somewhat spared by the timing of spring break, but it’s still interesting. Those work dorms aren’t really the same.

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So, we can do whatever we want now (outdoors, at least)?

So long as it's with a large group burning down a Wendy's in Atlanta.

Being started by a young white woman, according to several videos.

When you're a white ally, but confused over what should be burned down... I'm sure they'll have courses on that soon.

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wonder which side of the looney fringe she belongs to
we are beting leftish

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You are conflating the actions of a few criminals with the policy platform of a national political party.

Which type of bigot?

The blaming Republicans for the Charlottesville attack?
Or the blaming Democrats for the BLM riots?

The bigots come in two popular flavors.

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Party like it's 1864 baby!

Took about 4 secs for it to hit me... that is an excellent history joke.

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Not to be pedantic, but the database is cluttered with entries that aren't super spreading "events" - they're super spreading locations. No specific infectious event hit most prisons, nursing homes or hospitals - the virus spreads there because people are confined in close proximity to each other. I'm more interested in what activities turn an infected individual into a superspreader (the "detailed setting" column).

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I've been talking up this kind of analysis for a couple of months ... but I've got a methodological concern that might be important. How do we know that we aren't overlooking substantial risks that are likely to qualify as superspreaders: e.g., spreading within your home to one or two other people? Or perhaps random spreading on the subway or in a store?

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SSE? Try SIC...superspreader in chief. Right-To-Work states had a quarter of of new cases mid April, half by end of May and two thirds mid June.

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If nothing else it's a step forward from the obsession for several weeks with "super-spreaders". Unless we get evidence that there's a bunch of Typhoid Mary's wandering around, we don't have super-spreaders, we have super-spreading events.

So instead of trying to identify a category of human beings that probably doesn't even exist, this is the right thing to track down and study.

Just because it was obvious in South Korea (a church) or Germany (Carnival party) that events play a key role in viral spread, there is no reason to not jump to conclusions when it comes to looking for other explanations based on someone's existing obsessions,.

"Events play a key spread and must be banned" when they're sports or church, evidently not when they are massed gatherings of mobs of thousands of mobs aimed on distorting institutions towards absolutely ridiculous, fabricated and imaginary "problems".

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Yes, the classroom and dorm space ought to interest everyone dealing with reopening in the fall. Is it because the young don't catch it / are usually asymptomatic? Is teaching a room full of 18 year olds a death sentence for 60+ educators with underlying conditions?

I have a hunch that few of the universities that currently plan to open up to in-person classes actually will. My suspicion is that senior administrators see that there is no real way to keep students, staff, and faculty safe, and that any kind of in-person operations are liability bombs waiting to explode.

Cambridge has announced that all its lecturing will be online but that its small group "supervisions" will take place in person. I've not seen a mention of how labs are going to be run - perhaps on a shift pattern?

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Campus is going to be interesting, COVID or just cold and flu, every sniffle, every sneeze is going to cause alarm in the super-spreader environment of the dorms and poorly ventilated classrooms.

The giant auditorium where many schools dump freshmen for profit is going to be problematic. And those courses could easily be developed online if the schools would innovate instead of just try to replicate the live-improv traditional lecture model on video.

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“Summary findings”: the article calls them “preliminary results,” and spends the rest of the article describing the multitudinous ways in which they might be wrong. It goes on to say:
“So the database is very much imperfect and a work in progress.
Any help (corrections, additions, suggestions) would be much appreciated.” This is refreshing humility, in stark contrast to proclamations by governors, the president, and the public health establishment,

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Needs more Brazilian clusters. For instance, I just submitted one, 94 cases linked to a meatpacking plant in Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul: https://g1.globo.com/rs/rio-grande-do-sul/noticia/2020/05/20/jbs-retoma-atividades-em-passo-fundo-apos-quase-um-mes-entenda-o-que-mudou-na-fabrica.ghtml

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>Nearly all SSEs in the database... took place indoors
>The great majority of SSEs happened during flu season in that location

What percentage of peoples' interactions occur indoors during winter (i.e., flu season)?

That said, IIRC, some of the Euro SSE's were linked to ski resorts. But, even there, I don't remember if it was the skiing (i.e., the outdoor activity) or the apres ski (i.e., the indoor activity). Or, for that matter, gondolas (indoor-like) vs. chair lifts (clearly outdoor).

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The safety of outdoor locations is even greater than it seems from the headline. There is only 1 case in the database where infection was linked to a truly outdoor event: A pair of running partners (There have been anecdotal warnings before that running/jogging could be a particularly risky outdoor activity because of the amount of heavy breathing). Everything else that is outdoors is really an indoor/outdoor event, such as a wedding reception that is partially outdoors.

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Earlier TC posted a link to a study that used Kaiser info that was reflective of the time where the lock down was most strict. He noted that the RO was somewhere around .9 and said something to the effect of if " if this is as low as we can get it, then we have a lot more justifying to do."

So my question is if .9 is full lockdown baseline, what the delta between our current RO in the terms of lives and economic impact? The current RO I'm sure is the subject of debate, but there's surely a fair number out there (maybe the method used in another study TC linked to discussing whether an efficient gov and culturally tight people had an impact...)

I'll take a crack at it, but I'm afraid I'm rather elementary when it comes to arithmetic!

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