The Future is Getting Farther Away

In Launching the Innovation Renaissance I said that “If total factor productivity had continued to grow at its 1957 to 1973 rate then we today would be living in the world of 2076 rather than in the world of 2014.” Sadly, the future is continuing to recede. Consider the graph below. If growth had continued at the rate expected by the CBO in 2005 then we today would be living in the world of 2037 rather than in the world of 2021. (n.b. I am eyeballing.)

By the way, don’t blame the forecasters. The forecast was reasonable, the reality is below expectation.

Hat tip: Matt Yglesias reupping a graph originally produced by Claudia Sahm who I thought had a different interpretation but maybe not!.

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