The death of deterrence?

https://twitter.com/RLHeinrichs/status/1715171574167261313

Not to mention Hamas attacking in the first place (you also can debate at whom the Houthis were aiming, probably not the U.S. per se).  And the 32 dead and 11 Americans unaccounted for.

Forget about moralizing and sides-taking for a moment, and just try to think this through as a game.  Either a) attacks of this nature recur and escalate, or b) the U.S. and/or Israel act to reestablish deterrence?  If b), what kind of act would suffice to reestablish some kind of effective deterrence?  Again, to think clearly please try to steer your attention away from the moral question of what you think the U.S. and/or Israel should do.

I date the decline (but not death) of deterrence to when Iraq fired 42 Scud missiles into Israel in 1991 and the Israelis did not retaliate.  That decision was widely praised at the time, and perhaps correctly.  Still, since then people have been solving for the equilibrium…and now that new equilibrium seems to be upon us.  What would Thomas Schelling say?  This is all worth a very serious ponder.

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