Migrants at Sea: Unintended Consequences of Search and Rescue Operations

Many countries are facing and resisting strong migratory pressure, fueling irregular migration. In response to mounting deaths in the Central Mediterranean, European nations intensified rescue operations in 2013. We develop a model of irregular migration to identify the effects of these operations. We find that smugglers responded by sending boats in adverse weather and utilizing flimsy rafts, thus inducing more crossings in dangerous conditions and ultimately offsetting intended safety benefits due to moral hazard. Despite the increased risk, these operations likely increased aggregate migrant welfare; nevertheless, a more successful policy should instead restrict supply of rafts and expand legal alternatives.

That is by Claudio Deiana, Vikram Maheshri and Giovanni Mastrobuoni, published in the latest issue of the AEA policy journal.

As a side point, the call for greater legality is under-argued to say the least.  This is a classic example of academic bias not being called out, as there is zero consideration of the costs of such migration.  Loyal MR readers will know I am hardly unsympathetic to immigration, but there are reasons why the arrival of so many migrants in Europe is unpopular.  Policy recommendations can be issued without considering those reasons?  And there is a call for the EU to help Africa grow — are there plausible policy instruments there with benefits above costs?  Enough to matter for the migration problem?  Doesn’t making poor societies richer often boost the flow of migrants because now migration can be planned and afforded?  Also not discussed.

Or maybe it is that no one thinks these are real policy discussions, rather it is not “mood affiliation permissible” to simply end a piece on the note that trying to help vulnerable individuals can backfire and lead to a lot of moral hazard?  And so a mood affiliation of “we care about them nonetheless” has to be slipped in at the end?

Either way come on, both authors and editors…

Nonetheless this is an interesting paper, worthy of attention!  Here are less gated versions of the paper.