Does drug interdiction work?

From GPT 5.1 Pro:

“In the economic literature, the dominant story is:

• Prohibition and enforcement do make illegal drugs much more expensive than they would be in a legal market.

• But marginal increases in interdiction (seizing shipments, crop eradication, etc.), especially in the Andes, have not produced sustained higher prices or lower quantities in consumer markets.

• Instead, retail, purity‑adjusted prices for cocaine and heroin show large long‑run declines (1980s–2000s) and then roughly flat or drifting patterns at historically low levels, while global production and consumption reach record highs. Reuters+4whitehouse.gov+4whitehouse.gov+4

So between your two stylized options—“successfully limit quantity and raise prices” vs. “long‑run steady decline in prices”—the long‑run price data look a lot more like the second story, with only temporary interruptions from big interdiction pushes.”

There is much more at the link.  Blowing up a few boats is not going to change that logic.