Eric Hanushek on the import of schooling quality declines

 My recent research at Stanford University translates the achievement declines into implications for future economic impacts. Past evidence shows clearly that people who know more earn more. When accounting for the impact of higher achievement historically on salaries, the lifetime earnings of today’s average student will be an estimated 8 percent lower than that of students in 2013. Because long-term economic growth depends on the quality of a nation’s labor force, the achievement declines translate into an average of 6 percent lower gross domestic product for the remainder of the century. The dollar value of this lower growth is over 15 times the total economic costs of the 2008 recession.

Here is the full Op-Ed, noting that Eric compares this decline to the effects of an eight percent income tax surcharge.  I have not read through this work, though I suspect these estimates will prove controversial when it comes to causality.  In any case, file this under “big if true,” if only in expected value terms.