Ken Opalo outlook on Africa 2026

(4) Keeping with the theme of growing during hard times and in difficult contexts, Nigeria is projected to grow by at least 4.3% in 2026, with consumer demand rising by over 7%.

Tinubu’s strong medicine may have nearly killed the patient, but after two painful years Nigerians seem poised to get relief from improving macro conditions. The Naira will remain stable (despite downward pressure on oil prices), with inflation projected to decline to under 14% — down from over 20% in 2025. Also, by now we can conclude that Dangote Refinery’s $20b bet on the Nigerian economy is a success. He appears to be winning the war against the entrenched interests that for decades fed at the trough of crude exports, imports of refined products, and fuel subsidies. The impact of the refinery will be felt in the further stabilization of fuel prices in 2026.

Nigeria’s reform momentum will slow down ahead of the 2027 elections. It’s not yet clear whether the reforms knocked the economy into a growth path, or if the projected growth is just recovery from the initial steep contraction after Tinubu took office.

(5) South Africa, too, will grow in 2026 despite tariff and political pressure from Washington. The GNU is holding; and Pretoria has weathered geopolitical storms (including the rift with Trump’s America) much better than I anticipated.

After years of stagnation, there is an emerging consensus that South Africa will see improvements in its growth rate over the next three years (averaging 1.7%). The reform momentum will continue, including in the power sector and entrenchment of the rule of law. Local elections later this year, including the big one in Johannesburg, will likely put further pressure on the ANC to improve service delivery and overall quality of policymaking.

The whole post is of interest, interesting throughout.