The Venezuelan stock market

Venezuela’s stock market is now up +73% since President Maduro was captured. Since December 23rd, as President Trump ramped up pressure on Maduro’s government, Venezuela’s stock market is up +148%.

Here is the link and chart.  And up seventeen percent in the last day, and now some more on top of that.  Note the bolivar is down only a small amount since December 23.

I see the reality as such:

a) Immoral actions were taken, leading up to the removal of Maduro, and immoral measures are likely to continue, both from the United States and from various Venezuelan replacement governments.

b) Trump’s actions have been some mix of unlawful and unconstitutional, to what degree you can debate.

c) In expected value terms, the people of Venezuela are now much better off.

It can and should be debated how much a) and b) should be weighted against c).  But to deny c), or even to fail to mention it, is, I think, quite delusional.

Effective Altruists, are you paying attention?