Category: Current Affairs
Rebuilding Haiti
Here is a new and very worthwhile short piece from Progressive Fix, authored by Jim Arkedis and Mike Derham. I am more skeptical of the UN than are the authors, but I agree with many of the recommendations and perhaps the UN is the only option anyway. Here is one excerpt:
Once order is established, the UN mission will essentially become a national police force in the absence of a Haitian alternative. To transfer power back to the local government, the UN mission should be tasked with building an effective security force and justice system. That means in addition to cops, the UN may solicit prosecutors and judges in a proxy judiciary. It’s a tall order, but it may be the only way that allows the remaining Haitian government to fully concentrate on reconstruction.
Here is a truly excellent article from the NYT, on the previous lack of Haitian openness and the need to mobilize Haitian expat expertise. Excerpt:
On an economic and political level, the Haitian diaspora could be threatening, said Harry Casimir, 30, a Haitian-born businessman who opened an information technology business there just before the earthquake. “Once the elites have money and power,” Mr. Casimir said, “they’re scared of people like me, the younger generation and so on. Because we travel around the world and see how other governments function, and obviously most countries are not corrupt like Haiti.”
Voodoo bathing ritual
The source article, by Wade Davis on voodoo (I don't agree with everything in it), is here.
Obligatory budget post
I keep on hearing about a "pivot," but where is it? Via Greg Mankiw and Arnold Kling, here is Keith Hennessey:
We can draw five important conclusions from this graph:
- At 8.3% of GDP, the proposed budget deficit for 2011 is still extremely high.
- President Obama is proposing larger budget deficits than he did last year.
- For 2011, the most relevant year of this proposal, the President is proposing a budget deficit that is 2.3 percentage points higher than he did last year (8.3% vs. 6.0%).
- Using his own numbers, the President’s proposed budget deficits will cause debt as a share of the economy to increase.
- Under the President’s proposal, budget deficits begin to increase as a share of the economy beginning in 2018.
Adding further detail to (4), the President’s own figures show deficits averaging 5.1% of GDP over the next 5 years, and 4.5% of GDP over the next ten years. They further show debt held by the public increasing from 63.6% of GDP this year to 77.2% of GDP ten years from now. I think it’s a safe assumption that CBO’s rescore of the President’s budget will be even worse.
Addendum: Brad DeLong objects.
Another idea for Haiti
Haitians in Canada proposed another excellent idea: government-paid leaves of absence to allow expatriates (employed in government or the private sector) to return and rebuild civil society in their place of birth.
There is more here. I am less sure about this one, largely for reasons of maintenance:
Instead of waiting for someone to build an expensive, centralized power grid, donors could think more flexibly on a smaller scale, using solar panels and LEDs to provide electricity and light cheaply, portably and quickly.
No Shoes Please and No Debt Relief Either
Sending shoes to Haiti is how not to help. Fortunately, with notable exceptions, this message is getting out. A lot of attention, however, is still being given to debt relief. David Roodman at the Center for Global Development argues that this is merely a more sophisticated version of sending shoes. Haiti's interest charges are on the order of $9 million a year. Sure, holding off on the interest charges is a no-brainer, but the effort going into debt relief far exceeds the potential gains from simple aid not to mention immigration and trade relief. Here, from Roodman, is his argument in a graph:
*The Cleanest Race*
This is a very interesting book about the ideologies behind North Korea. The author is B.R. Myers and the subtitle is How North Koreans See Themselves — and Why it Matters. Excerpt:
One searches these early works in vain for a sense of fraternity with the world proletariat. The North Koreans saw no contradiction between regarding the USSR as developmentally superior on the one hand and morally inferior on the other. (The parallel to how South Koreans have always viewed the United States is obvious.) Efforts to keep this contempt a secret were undermined by over-confidence in the impenetrability of the Korean language and the inability of all nationalists to put themselves in a foreigner's shoes. The Workers' Party was taken by surprise, for example, when Red Army authorities objected to a story about a thuggish Soviet soldier who mends his ways after encountering a saintly Korean street urchin — another child character symbolizing the purity of the race.
I liked this bit as well:
The lack of conflict makes North Korean narratives seem dull even in comparison to Soviet fiction. Rather than try to stimulate curiosity about what will happen next, directors and writers try to make one wonder what has already happened. Films introduce characters in a certain situation (getting a medal, say), then go back and forth in time to explain how they got there. Nowhere in the world do writers make such heavy use of the flashback. But we should beware of assuing that people in the DPRK find these narratives as dull as we do. The Korean aesthetic has traditionally been very tolerant of convention and formula. (South Korean broadcasters rework the same few soap-opera plots every year). According to refugee testimony, however, most North Koreans prefer stories set either in the "Yankee colony" or in pre-revolutionary times, with real villains and conflict.
I also recommend the new book Nothing to Envy: Ordinary Lives in North Korea, by Barbara Demick. Excerpt:
North Koreans have multiple words for prison in much the same way that the Inuit do for snow.
From the WSJ, here is a joint review of the two books.
The subsistence wage
Until the broken Haitian government can figure out how to distribute paychecks, the national police have been working for food. That's one meal a day, given to them by the foreigners, that "we have to beg for," said the chief of police.
The article is interesting throughout, as it focuses mostly on how corruption among the Haitian police has plummeted since the earthquake.
Watch Obama debate the Republicans
Via Brad DeLong. Who did better?
One paragraph plus a sentence
Mr. Salinger was controlling and sexually manipulative, Ms. Maynard wrote, and a health nut obsessed with homeopathic medicine and with his diet (frozen peas for breakfast, undercooked lamb burger for dinner). Ms. Salinger said that her father was pathologically self-centered and abusive toward her mother, and to the homeopathy and food fads she added a long list of other exotic enthusiasms: Zen Buddhism, Vedanta Hinduism, Christian Science, Scientology and acupuncture. Mr. Salinger drank his own urine, she wrote, and sat for hours in an orgone box.
But was he writing?
The rest of the Salinger obituary, interesting throughout, is here.
Who are the biggest donors to Haiti?
Here is an interesting visual, which expresses pledged support to Haiti in per capita terms. #1 is Canada, by a large margin, followed by some of the Nordic countries.
Per capita the U.S. doesn't do so well (NB: I don't think remittances are counted), with less than half of what Guyana supplies. We're also behind Estonia, Switzerland, and United Arab Emirates, among other countries. The visual is measuring earthquake aid pledged, not all foreign aid.
In absolute terms here is another visual; U.S. is #1. I don't think this is using the same metric as above.
Here's another interesting visual. Relative to per capita gdp, Ghana is the single most significant pledger of aid to Haiti.
For the pointer I thank Rahul Nabar.
The incomes and professions of Haitian-Americans
The blog post is here. It's a proposal for "diaspora bonds" (I fear that excess corruption is a problem). I was more interested in this bit:
…nearly one-third of Haitian immigrants in the US belong to households that earned more than $60,000 in 2009. In comparison, less than 15% of the immigrants from Mexico, Dominican Republic and El Salvador in the US had that level of household income. A quarter of Haitian immigrants, especially women, are reportedly in the relatively higher paying health care and education sectors; only a small number of them are in the construction sector.
Hat tip goes to Whirled Citizen.
Haiti fact of the day
In 2009, the cost of dealing with construction permits in Haiti was about 570% of income per capita.
Here is the source post, with further information. Had I mentioned that perhaps as much as eighty percent of the population of Port-au-Prince is homeless?
Real estate and transportation in Port-au-Prince
Port-au-Prince is now a city where most people are sleeping outside at night (estimates put it at 80 percent of the residents). I drove back to our camp just after dark a couple of nights ago, rushing to meet our own night-time curfew. At street corner after corner, people had blocked access to their blocks by placing stones in the way. They didn't want vehicles rushing blindly in and injuring sleeping families. I looked up these blocks and saw winding ribbons of re-created bedrooms, demarcated with bedsheets and string, as far as my eyes could see in the dark.
That's Monte, via Andrew Sullivan.
Some problems they are having in Haiti
1. Since many financial institutions are closed, transport is difficult, and people don't all have their papers (fear of theft also may be an issue), it is almost impossible to receive remittances, which account for more than one-quarter of the country's gdp.
2. The current makeshift shelters are not robust to rain and storms and the rainy season is starting in May. Rain also brings a greater risk of various diseases.
3. The price of food keeps on rising. It was already the case — before the earthquake — that poor people commonly ate mud cakes as a source of nutrition. 54 percent of Haitians live on less than one dollar a day.
4. The party with the ability to make things happen — the U.S. military — isn't formally in charge and is sensitive to bad publicity.
5. In the Darfur crisis, eighty percent of the fatalities came from disease and disease has yet to begin in the Haitian situation.
6. There are already 150,000 accounted-for dead and many more uncounted.
7. It's by no means clear that the aftershocks are over and there is even some chance of a bigger quake to come. This also discourages aid efforts and the construction of more permanent shelter.
8. Outside of some parts of Port-Au-Prince and immediate environs, external aid is barely underway yet damage is extensive.
9. It is not clear that the upcoming planting season — which starts in March — will proceed in an orderly fashion. One-third of the country's population is living at loose ends and most of the country's infrastructure is destroyed. For the planting season many Haitian farmers need seeds, fertilisers, livestock feed and animal vaccines. That planting season accounts for sixty percent of Haiti's agricultural output.
10. Before a limb can be amputated, some doctors have to first go to the market and buy a saw.
Those aren't the only problems.
Free Hearing
Who gets the right to free speech is a status marker and disputes over this right a status game, so argues Robin Hanson:
The usual rationale for “free speech,” which seems persuasive, is that in the long run we as a society learn more via an open competition for the best ideas, where anyone can try to persuade us as best they can, and listeners are free to choose what to hear. Yet that concept would best be called “free hearing” – a freedom to hear and evaluate any case presented, based on any criteria you like (including cost).
“Free hearing” would apply not just to hearing from adult citizens in good standing, but also to hearing from children, convicts, corporations, robots, foreigners, or demons. We wouldn’t argue if corporations have a right to speak, but rather if we have a right to hear what corporations have to say.
But in fact we have “free speech,” a right only enjoyed by adult citizens in good standing, a right we jealously guard, wondering if corporations etc. “deserve” it. This right seems more a status marker, like the right to vote, than a way to promote idea competition – that whole competition story seems more an ex post rationalization than the real cause for our concern. Which is why support for “free speech” is often paper thin, fluctuating with the status of proposed speakers.
There are other explanations for our focus on free speech rather than free hearing such as it’s the speech makers who are easiest to punish and control (being so many smaller in number than the speech hearers) but Robin’s point remains characteristically insightful.