Category: Uncategorized
Cass Sunstein on liberalism
An excellent and benchmark piece (NYT). Excerpt:
30. Liberals like laughter. They are anti-anti-laughter.
Recommended.
Monday assorted links
1. Black athletes discuss Thomas Sowell.
2. GPT4V watches an NBA game (and roots for the Clippers).
3. No economic growth in South Africa for the last fifteen years.
4. Rasheed Griffith interviews the guy designated to lead the dollarization of Argentina.
5. Katherine Boyle speech on American dynamism.
6. Hart and Moore on property rights and the theory of the firm (1990, still relevant). And Aghion and Tirole.
My favorite fiction books of 2023
These were my favorite fictional works from this year’s reading:
Mircea Cartarescu, Solenoid. About communist Romania, long, profound, a major work of fiction which can justifiably enter the pantheon.
Tezer Özlü, Cold Nights of Childhood. A Turkish novella, originally published in 1980, newly translated into English and the first English-language book by her. Here is more on the author. Only 76 pp., can be read in one bite.
Rebecca F. Kuang, Yellowface.
J.M. Coetzee, The Pole.
Dostoyevsky, The Brothers Karamazov, new translation by Michael R. Katz. I am on about p.200, so far my favorite of the major translations.
Juan Rulfo, Pedro Páramo, new translation.
Ovid, Metamorphosis, new translation by Stephanie McCarter. I have only browsed this one, but expect it to be very good.
I will of course provide an update by the end of the year, if only because the new Ha Jin novel is coming soon.
What would you all recommend?
Labor market evidence from ChatGPT
So far some of the main effects are quite egalitarian:
Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds the potential to either complement knowledge workers by increasing their productivity or substitute them entirely. We examine the short-term effects of the recent release of the large language model (LLM), ChatGPT, on the employment outcomes of freelancers on a large online platform. We find that freelancers in highly affected occupations suffer from the introduction of generative AI, experiencing reductions in both employment and earnings. We find similar effects studying the release of other image-based, generative AI models. Exploring the heterogeneity by freelancers’ employment history, we do not find evidence that high-quality service, measured by their past performance and employment, moderates the adverse effects on employment. In fact, we find suggestive evidence that top freelancers are disproportionately affected by AI. These results suggest that in the short term generative AI reduces overall demand for knowledge workers of all types, and may have the potential to narrow gaps among workers.
That is from a new paper by Xiang Hui, Oren Reshef, and Luofeng Zhou, via Fernand Pajot. And here is an FT summary of some key results.
I would stress this point, however. As more ordinary life and commerce structures itself around AI, more and more AI-driven or AI-enable projects will become possible. That will favor those who are good at conceiving of projects and executing them, and those longer-run effects may well be less egalitarian.
Sunday assorted links
2. My New Statesman interview about the UK.
3. Electric air taxis for NYC?
4. Metaphor does something with MR’s assorted links, don’t ask me exactly what.
5. EA commentary from Brian Chau, his representation of my remarks is accurate.
What do we know about non-profit boards?
In fact, however, a reasonable consensus of experts on NPOs [non-profit organizations] agrees that their governance is generally abysmal, worse than that of for-profit corporations. NPO directors are mostly ill-informed, quarrelsome, clueless about their proper role, and dominated by the CEO — as proponents of shareholder primacy would predict.
Here is the full paper by George W. Dent, Jr. Here is the more general literature.
My summary views on AI existential risk
That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, written and edited by the way before…all that stuff happened at Open AI. Here is one excerpt:
First, I view AI as more likely to lower than to raise net existential risks. Humankind faces numerous existential risks already. We need better science to limit those risks, and strong AI capabilities are one way to improve science. Our default path, without AI, is hardly comforting.
The above-cited risks may not kill each and every human, but they could deal civilization as we know it a decisive blow. China or some other hostile power attaining super-powerful AI before the US does is yet another risk, not quite existential but worth avoiding, especially for Americans.
It is true that AI may help terrorists create a bioweapon, but thanks to the internet that is already a major worry. AI may help us develop defenses and cures against those pathogens. We don’t have a scientific way of measuring whether aggregate risk goes up or down with AI, but I will opt for a world with more intelligence and science rather than less.
As for the corporate issues, I am hoping for a good resolution…
The cross-sectional implications of the social discount rate
Maya Eden has a new paper on this topic, I believe it is forthcoming in Econometrica:
In this paper, I consider two normative questions: (1) how should policymakers approach tradeoffs that involve different age groups, and (2) at what rate should policymakers discount the consumption of future generations? I demonstrate that, under standard assumptions, these two questions are equivalent: caring more about the future means caring less about the elderly. Even small differences between the social discount rate and the market interest rate can have significant quantitative implications for the relative value placed on the consumption of different age groups.
To get to the paper, look here and then click on the first link. Some of you will recall that I make a similar argument in my Stubborn Attachments.
Elsewhere on the discount rate front, the OMB is calling for lower discount rates in policy analysis. I’m all for that, but the trick is to apply them consistently, not just use them to rationalize particular government expenditures. Will we at the same time start spending less money on the elderly and more money on the young? Otherwise obsess over growth-enhancing policies? To ask such questions is to answer. If only our institutions took their own work seriously on discount rates…
Saturday assorted links
*Lineages of the Feminine*
That is the new book by Emmanuel Todd, subtitled An Outline of the History of Women and mostly on the feminization of society. It does not cohere, and spends too much time wallowing in pseudo-anthropology, but it has a number of interesting bits. Here is from the preface:
The feminist revolution is a great thing (I’m an ordinary Westerner on the point) but we are not yet able to see how much the emancipation of women has radically altered the whole of our social life. Because we always see women as minors, as victims, we do not place them, for better or for worse (i.e., like men) at the centre of our history: they are the protagonists, for example, in the rejection of racism and homophobia, but they are also the unconscious protagonists of our neoliberalism, or deindustrialization and our inability to act collectively….we must accept that the inequalities between human beings in general, in the West, have increased at the same rate as the decrease in inequalities between men and women
The original pointer was from Arnold Kling’s review.
What is your favorite book that no one else you know likes?
I do mean no one. You have to really like this book, have no other friends or colleagues who like it, and still think the book is very good, not just the product of your own contrarian snottiness.
I have my pick: Nancy Scheper Hughes’s 1992 study Death Without Weeping: The Violence of Everyday Life in Brazil.
Part of the GPT-4 summary runs as follows:
The central premise is the apparent paradox that mothers in this region seem to accept the death of their infants without the expected level of grief or weeping. Scheper-Hughes explores the sociocultural and economic factors that have led to a situation where such high infant mortality is normative and somewhat “accepted” as a part of life. This acceptance is a survival mechanism in a context where the death of children is so common due to factors such as malnutrition, dehydration, and lack of adequate healthcare.
It’s not that I know people who reject this book, rather I don’t currently know anyone who would read a 556-page work on medical anthropology/conflict studies in northern Brazil.
A long time ago, I would have nominated Rene Girard here, perhaps Theatre of Envy. But he has since grown in popularity.
What are your picks, and why?
Friday assorted links
Africa fact of the day
COLUMN: Sub-Saharan Africa has lost another decade.
The region's GDP per capita peaked in 2014, and since has fallen ~10%. On current trends, it would not retain the 2014 level until 2033, implying a second lost decade.#Africa #commodities via @Opinion https://t.co/FYFobDnCtF
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) September 12, 2023
Thursday assorted links
My Conversation with the excellent Jennifer Burns
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is the episode description:
Jennifer Burns is a professor history at Stanford who works at the intersection of intellectual, political, and cultural history. She’s written two biographies Tyler highly recommends: her 2009 book, Goddess of the Market: Ayn Rand and the American Right and her latest, Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative, provides a nuanced look into the influential economist and public intellectual.
Tyler and Jennifer start by discussing how her new portrait of Friedman caused her to reassess him, his lasting impact in statistics, whether he was too dogmatic, his shift from academic to public intellectual, the problem with Two Lucky People, what Friedman’s courtship of Rose Friedman was like, how Milton’s family influenced him, why Friedman opposed Hayek’s courtesy appointment at the University of Chicago, Friedman’s attitudes toward friendship, his relationship to fiction and the arts, and the prospects for his intellectual legacy. Next, they discuss Jennifer’s previous work on Ayn Rand, including whether Rand was a good screenwriter, which is the best of her novels, what to make of the sex scenes in Atlas Shrugged and The Fountainhead, how Rand and Mises got along, and why there’s so few successful businesswomen depicted in American fiction. They also delve into why fiction seems so much more important for the American left than it is for the right, what’s driving the decline of the American conservative intellectual condition, what she will do next, and more.
Here is one excerpt:
COWEN: What’s the future of Milton Friedman, say, 30, 40 years from now? Where will the reputation be? University of Chicago is no longer Friedmanite, right? We know that. There are fewer outposts of Friedmanite-thinking than there had been. Will he be underrated or somehow reinvented or what?
BURNS: Let me look into my crystal ball. I don’t think the name will have faded. I think there are still names that people read. People still read Keynes and Mill and figures like that to see what did they say in their day that was so influential. I think that Friedman has got into the water and into the air a bit. I do some work on tracing out his influence.
Within economics, no one’s going to say, “Oh, I’m a Friedmanite,” or fewer people are, but this is someone whose major work was done half a century or more ago, so I don’t think that’s surprising. It would be surprising if economics had been at a standstill as Friedman still called the tune. When you think about the way we accord importance to the modern Federal Reserve, of course, there were things that happened in the world, but Friedman’s ideas did so much to shape that understanding.
He’s still in policymakers’ minds. He’s still in the monetary policy establishment’s minds, even if they’re not fully following him. I think we’re in the middle of a big reckoning now. You saw all the debate about M2 and the pandemic and monetary spending. I don’t know where it’s all going to settle out. It’s a more complicated world than the one that Friedman looked at. I tend to think he is an essential thinker, that the basics of what he talked about are going to be known 50 years from now, for sure.
COWEN: Did Milton Friedman have friends?
Definitely recommended, and Jennifer’s new book Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative is one of my favorite books of the year. It will likely stand as the definitive biography of Friedman.