Why 99 cents per song?
Apple’s iTunes charges 99 cents for every song downloaded. Why? Is Outkast’s “Hey Ya” really worth no more than a creaky Pat Boone ballad?
Some artists object to this “one price fits all” model. A star may feel it cheapens the value of her wares, or that she simply deserves a higher return.
An alternative business model asks users to donate to the artist, depending how much they like the song. For one service, you can pay as little as $5 but it is suggested that you pay more. The average payment is running at $8.93, though this is a small and self-selected group using the service. In any case not all songs go for the same final price. The service is called Magnatune: We Are Not Evil, check out their web site.
Yet another idea would use an auction system. Listeners could bid for song downloads, with the price determined periodically by supply and demand. We would then expect the songs in highest demand to bring the highest price. Note also that when bands sell their concert recordings on-line, they don’t generally all charge the same prices.
Alternatively, songs may be like books. You charge a low price at first, to stimulate a snowball of fan demand. Bestsellers sell for less, per page, than academic books. (Imagine a professor boasting “Stephen King’s books sell for a mere $6.99; my books sell for a royal $75 a piece.”) In this case the supplier would flood the downloads market with copies, so that the price of the more popular song would be less, not more, despite higher demand.
Different movies sell for the same prices. Either Return of the King or the latest bomb both go for $8.50 at the same theater. This practice has long puzzled me. Perhaps the low price satisfies a fairness constraint, and also helps generate a snowball of fan demand, as with books. It might make more sense to expand the number of screens for the movie rather than raise the price. And hit movies pull people into movie theaters more generally, which spills over into demand for other movies.
The big change may come when downloads are used as advertising. Pepsi is expected to give away up to one million downloaded songs, through iTunes, in connection with the Super Bowl. Coca-Cola may be entering the market as well. Keep in mind that the recorded music industry is small in size relative to corporate advertising budgets. Perhaps corporations will become patrons of music, giving away songs wrapped in an advertisement.
The bottom line: iTunes is just one business model, and it has yet to prove itself. Apple is making money off the hardware, not the songs. Returns will plummet once the hardware business becomes more competitive. It remains to be seen how the downloads market will evolve, but do not expect a mere extrapolation of current trends.
What makes rats pessimistic?
Unstable housing conditions, so it seems. Read the full story.
The organ shortage is worse than you think
In 2002, 6609 people died while on the waiting list for an organ transplant. This figure, widely quoted in the media, is an underestimate of the number of deaths due to the shortage because it only counts those who die while literally on the waiting list. In 2002, however, 1844 patients were removed from the list before they died because they became too sick to undergo a transplant. It’s likely that most of these patients die soon after being removed from the list so adding these patients to the tally increases the number of deaths caused by the shortage by some 28 percent. In addition, many people who could benefit from an organ transplant are never placed on the waiting list in the first place and when these people die their deaths are not counted as a cost of the shortage but they surely are.
For some solutions to the shortage see my earlier post, Dollars for Donors.
Inflation
Bretton-Woods fixed $35 equal to one ounce of gold.
The Minimalist guesses that $35 buys one ounce of real saffron.
Here is the original link. Here is the original article citing the price of saffron.
It’s simple
Atrios writes:
I’m basically a “free trader,” but it’s time we stop pretending it’s that simple.
Try this highly complex story on for size:
The US Commerce Department has said it may impose tariffs of up to 123% on Chinese, Malaysian, and Thai plastic shopping bag producers.
The Commerce Department said it would continue its investigation and reach a final decision in June.
The US imported about 100 billion plastic bags in 2002, worth more than $127m, and China supplied about 30%.
The list of items causing trade tensions between the US and Asian countries already includes Vietnamese cat fish and Chinese-made bras and colour TVs.
The Commerce Department issued its preliminary ruling after complaints from US packaging firms, including Sonoco Products and Interplast Group.
They say unfairly cheap Asian plastic bags are losing them $300m in sales a year.
Strain your mind, can you figure this one out? And I am a free trader, not a “free trader.” Thanks to Don Boudreaux for the link.
How does high fashion turn a profit?
The most expensive dresses can sell from anywhere from $15,000 to $100,000. They are popular for weddings in the United States and the Middle East, but otherwise do not garner large numbers of orders. Note also that the sector is highly regulated and in typical French fashion:
The Chambre Syndicale de la Haute Couture, the governing body that oversees the couture business in France, enforces archaic and unyielding regulations–defending tradition and, in the process, driving most practitioners out of business. To receive official designation as haute couture from the Chambre Syndicale, a fashion house must employ 20 or more full-time skilled technicians in France and produce a minimum of 50 new designs for day and evening wear in each of the two fashion seasons, although the conditions are somewhat looser for new houses that wish to start producing couture.
How then do the designers make money?
…couture…serves two other purposes for the houses that produce it. One is that couture represents what the designer John Galliano called the “laboratory of ideas,” where the act of creation is given free rein. Many who watch the coverage of the couture shows marvel that anyone could be possibly expected to wear the extravagant and seemingly uncomfortable designs on display, but couture is not really designed to be worn; rather, it affords an opportunity to try out cuts and styles that can then be incorporated, in more modest form, into wearable prêt-à -porter.
Couture also serves to create a brand identity that rubs off on the perfume, cosmetics, and leather goods–few of them high-design products in themselves–where the profit margins are fat and the real money is to be made. Ironically, many people will buy a $150 bottle of perfume to participate in the lifestyle suggested by the $15,000 couture dress they cannot afford, while in reality the dress was produced in large part to seduce them into paying too much for the perfume.
Here is a list of papers on the economics of fashion, but the topic remains underexplored. So much of economic activity is about buying dreams, and we don’t yet have to analytical tools to analyze this kind of problem.
The forward march of culinary diversity
OK, this is interesting: Chicago may soon be home to the first haggis factory in the US:
“There are lots of Scots living in the States, and Scottish food is becoming increasingly popular, so I think the market is definitely big enough to make haggis a success in the U.S.,” Ken Stahly, owner of Stahly Quality Foods told the Evening Telegraph and Post in Scotland. “Chicago is an ideal base, because its geographical location is an ideal gateway to the U.S. and Canadian marketplace.”
Not to mention our extensive set of folkways that involve eating various and sundry pieces of meat and offal ground into bit and stuffed into organs, yum. Actually, I love bratwurst, don’t get me wrong, but … even on Burns Day and even in Scotland I can’t bring myself to eat haggis. I’ll stick with Lagavulin, thank you very much.
Interestingly, the company says that they will market a vegetarian haggis in the US market (!).
The material is from Lynne Kiesling, here is the original article. I’ll bet against the commercial success of the idea, in part because I suspect that high quality haggis is not made in a “factory.” Nonetheless American dining options continue to increase, the northern Virginia suburbs now have real Szechuan restaurants, fried duck’s blood and that sort of thing. As for the haggis I will pass.
Best non-fiction books of the twentieth century
Here is a left-wing list. Here is a National Review list, with Hayek and Robert Conquest near the top. Here are two Random House lists. The critics elevate Henry Adams, William James, and Booker T. Washington. The readers favor Ayn Rand, L. Ron Hubbard, and John Lott. The readers’ list has all kind of libertarian books, including David Boaz and Tibor Machan. Thanks to the ever-interesting www.politicaltheory.info for the link. All of the lists make for fun browsing, especially once you start thinking about the contrasts.
How free market is the Chilean miracle?
The major economic successes of Chile are commonly considered to be a free market miracle. To be sure, there is much truth to this characterization. The Pinochet regime engaged in extensive privatization and deregulation and moved to free trade. Agriculture, services, copper mining, and telecommunications all boomed. The Chilean economy has been the envy of Latin America for some time now. The country also has few problems with corruption.
The reality nonetheless is more complex than a simple market story may imply, read this thorough account. The Chilean state has grown stronger as the Chilean economy has prospered. In the 1990s, Chile has doubled corporate taxes, almost doubled its minimum wage, and more than doubled spending on health and education. Here is another account of how social spending has gone up during the 1990s. Chile also has maintained tight capital controls on foreign investment until 1999. The vaunted Chilean social security privatization in fact superimposed a system of private accounts on an already-existing governmental system, which did not disappear. Yet in the 1990s the country continued to prosper. Chile grew by an average of 5.9 percent a year.
The bottom line: The world has seen massive liberalizations over the last twenty-five years and all for the better. But with few exceptions these reforms have strengthened rather than overturned welfare states. New Zealand, for instance, also has not cut its welfare spending. Welfare states are, in part, the price we pay for public order, whether or not they always make economic sense. When it comes to economic development, the question is not state vs. market. Rather poorer countries need both stronger markets and stronger (as distinct from more tyrannical) states. Chile is generating strong institutions across the board, in both private and public realms. In contrast, look at Mexico, where government taxation takes only 12 percent of gdp. In Mexico the problem is not to cut the absolute size of government per se (although I can think of some obvious and good steps in this direction, such as introducing more electricity competition) as to reduce corruption and improve the quality of governance. Until market-oriented reformers understand this basic distinction, we will continue to give bad advice and generate only mixed results for market-oriented ideas.
Sleep on it
A good night’s sleep can help you think better and solve problems more effectively.
German scientists say they have demonstrated for the first time that our sleeping brains continue working on problems that baffle us during the day, and the right answer may come more easily after eight hours of rest.
The German study is considered to be the first hard evidence supporting the common sense notion that creativity and problem solving appear to be directly linked to adequate sleep, scientists say. Other researchers who did not contribute to the experiment say it provides a valuable reminder for overtired workers and students that sleep is often the best medicine…
Scientists at the University of Luebeck in Germany found that volunteers taking a simple math test were three times more likely than sleep-deprived participants to figure out a hidden rule for converting the numbers into the right answer if they had eight hours of sleep. The results appear in Thursday’s issue of the journal Nature.
Here is the full story. Here is another account, with a link to the original research. I will note that I typically review previously written MR postings after a night of good sleep.
Did a big chill kill off the Neanderthals?
Read this recent article. They just didn’t have the technology to adopt to colder climes. You also can feel better about Homo Sapiens. According to this account, human beings, far from having killed off the Neanderthals, almost suffered the same fate of extinction.
The New Financial Order
Like John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman before him, Robert Shiller is that rare economist who uses economic theory to design new and better ways of doing things. I highly recommend his book, The New Financial Order. (Indeed, I hope that Shiller will one day receive a Nobel prize for his work in economic design.) For some time, I’ve also been wanting to recommend The Atlantic magazine. This month’s issue is superb and includes the best piece on the state of the American economy that I have read (the link will take you to the online version but the magazine itself contains a number of useful charts and much else – buy it!). From that piece comes this quote on Shiller’s work:
A more radical variation on this concept comes from Robert Shiller, an economist at Yale, who believes that continuing financial-market innovations may soon enable private insurers to offer “livelihood insurance” that could protect workers from potential declines in their occupations (though not against an individual worker’s underperformance within a flourishing field). Similar products might insure against the eventual devaluation of specific academic degrees in the United States (such as those in software engineering or Russian language), or even against declines in the performance of the U.S. economy as a whole, relative to the rest of the world. (As Shiller notes, the fact that the past century was a good one for America does not necessarily mean that the next one will be.) Collectively, these products might lessen the large and arguably increasing risks inherent in the U.S. capitalist system.
These are bold ideas; it may be hard at first to wrap one’s mind around them. And it is perhaps ironic that financial markets–which are regarded by many people as amoral if not immoral–might ultimately solve some of the problems that socialist and utopian thinkers have been trying for centuries to address. But as improbable as livelihood insurance may sound, advances in data collection, data analysis, and financial-risk theory are lowering the technical barriers to such a system. Government action could help the creation of livelihood insurance on a large scale. Part of the government’s role would be technical–for instance setting the standards for the collection and sharing of personal income data that are necessary if livelihood insurance is to work. But two equally important tasks would be the articulation of a new vision of society–one where people are protected against the unexpected shocks that accompany rapid economic change–and the promotion of financial-services products that can sustain that vision. Without large markets covering a wide range of occupations, carriers offering livelihood insurance might have difficulty hedging their risk sufficiently.
Addendum: Robert Shiller’s homepage has lots of useful information.
Automatic parallel parking
You operate the brakes, the computer controls the car and fits it into the parking space. This is now a $2,200 option, available on some Toyotas in Japan. Here is the full account. Eighty percent of the eligible customers are opting for this package. My view? If you can’t parallel park, I bet you screw up on the operation of the machine.
Are athletes Bayesians?
Mark A. Walker and John C. Wooders, economists at the University of Arizona, recently studied old videotapes of tennis matches involving stars like Bjorn Borg, Ivan Lendl and Pete Sampras. The economists looked at the serves in each match to see how well players randomly altered playing the ball to an opponent’s forehand or backhand.
Many people do poorly on similar tests when they are conducted in a laboratory. Ask somebody to write down a list of hypothetical coin-flip outcomes, for example, and the result will probably contain too few streaks of heads or tails. Because people know that the overall odds are 50-50, they underestimate how often three straight tails or four straight heads turn up.
But professional tennis players realize, on some level, that their opponent will have an advantage if he knows that a serve to the forehand is likely to be followed by one to the backhand. They do a relatively good job of mixing serves, though still not as randomly as a computer program would, Professors Walker and Wooders reported in a 2001 paper.
Controlled experiments yield similar results, read this account from The New York Times.
Here is the bottom line:
The more uncertainty that people face – be it caused by wind on a tennis court, snow on a football field or darkness on a country highway – the more they make decisions based on their subconscious memory and the less they depend on what they see.
Related research by Doru Cojoc of Clemson shows that chess players play mixed strategies to keep their opponents off balance. Furthermore they are more likely to play such sophisticated strategies, the higher the rewards on the line.
By the way, even plants seem to perform implicit calculations when they breathe, read this recent account. Armen Alchian, of course, once postulated a similar conjecture, namely that plants maximize sunlight without any conscious awareness of such a process.
Could a little poison be a good thing?
Evidence is building for hormesis, the theory that suggests that moderate doses of bad things like radiation and toxins can improve health. Interestingly, much of the evidence has been around for a long time but it has been ignored because the focus was on proving the harm that toxins can cause and because low-dose effects are, by their nature, harder to identify so positive effects at low doses were typically discounted. Edward J. Calabrese of the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, however, has collected thousands of already published examples and is conducting original research of his own into hormesis. Other researchers are beginning to take notice. Hormesis is controversial, however, as you might imagine from this bombshell:
Calabrese suspects that in many cases, the benefits of hormesis may occur at levels higher than the recommended safe doses for humans.
Hormesis is a similar idea to the hygiene hypothesis (more here) which asserts that “reduced microbial exposure because of increased sanitation and cleaner lifestyles has facilitated the rise in asthma and allergic disease in the Western world.” (The mechanisms of the two effects appear quite different, however.)