Will health insurance premia rise for young males?

I suspect the analysis cited in this article is an exaggeration, but it is even more than I thought the exaggeration would be:

The survey, fielded by the conservative American Action Forum and made available to POLITICO, found that if the law’s insurance rules were in force, the premium for a relatively bare-bones policy for a 27-year-old male nonsmoker on the individual market would be nearly 190 percent higher.

…Insurers have been reluctant to share their premium projections for a variety of reasons, but Holtz-Eakin, through a lawyer intermediary, was able to get aggregated, anonymous data under a nondisclosure agreement. On average, premiums for individual policies for young and healthy people and small businesses that employ them would jump 169 percent, the survey found.

Note that subsidies would cushion such price shocks for lower-income individuals and that the premia for older and less healthy people would fall, by twenty-two percent according to a comparable estimate (do not forget that a smaller percentage figure is being applied to a larger absolute number).  From a distance, it is difficult to judge how realistic these projections are.

Still, I would think that the chance of younger individuals refusing to adhere to the mandate is higher than Massachusetts-linked projections have been indicating.

I would say that in recent times there has been a string of bad news about ACA and few new reported items of good news.

Addendum, from the comments, from Carl the Econ Guy:

The whole survey is here:


Look at Table 1– where it says that the average premium for young healthy males will go from $2,000 to a little over $5,000. Yikes.


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