China politics fact or estimate of the day

This is perhaps the best and most instructive one I have heard:

…Mr Xi’s authority remains hemmed in. True, his position at the highest level looks secure. But among the next layer of the elite, he has surprisingly few backers. Victor Shih of the University of California, San Diego, has tracked the various job-related and personal connections between the 205 full members of the party’s Central Committee, which embodies the broader elite. The body rubber-stamps Mr Xi’s decisions (there have been no recent rumours of open dissent within it). But the president needs enthusiastic support, as well as just a show of hands, to get his policies—such as badly needed economic reforms—implemented. According to Mr Shih, the president’s faction accounts for just 6% of the group.

That is from The Economist.  Along related but not identical lines, here is a good story of the weak control of the Chinese central government:

Through July, claimed capacity reductions were less than half the target for the year (and less than 40% of the target for coal capacity reduction).  Some provinces were reported by the NDRC to have achieved only 10% of their annual targeted cuts.

…This resistance has led to more and more shrill directions from Beijing to act on instructions.  Now Beijing is sending out 10 inspection teams across the country to check on claimed capacity removal and to require follow through on additional closures.  I have one suggestion for them: The only way to ensure a closed plant remains closed is to physically destroy or remove key pieces of equipment.  Otherwise don’t be surprised when it starts back up again.

Don’t forget this:

Many steel mills are the key employer and tax payer in their city. In boom times, they might have provided as much as 30% of the tax revenue for local government.  Workers from the steel mill were at the forefront of buying property in the town, creating a positive cycle of additional demand for housing and steel.  If these workers are now laid off, even with one-time transfers from the center, local government faces an enormous challenge in trying to find new jobs for people who have been in a steel mill all their life.  They can’t all become part-time Uber/Didi drivers. Many government officials see delay as the most logical course of action.

That is from Gordon Orr.


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