Latino approval of Donald Trump

From a recent NPR/PBS poll:

African-American approval: 11%

White approval: 40%

Latino approval: 50%

I thank an MR reader for the pointer.


Latinos like their Caulderon, aka "Strong man" or "black pot" depending on how good your Spanish is.

Is it just me or does "an MR reader" sound awkward? "A" is better?

Caudillo Ray Caudillo

The four-way linking works pretty well at as soon as. Auto surf exchanges for instance, for your most part are sending
actual visitors or their owners computers to web site.
Kim joined with Associated Content in March of 2007.

I think the usage of the articles "a" and "an" are based on phonological rules of English and not strictly on the rules for written English. When you say "M" the consonant sound is not immediately present because the sound you're making is actually "em." This happens to other letters, as well: "F" sounds like "eff," "L" like "el," etc. Similarities exist in the rest of the language where the first letter of a word is a consonant, but the sound made is vowel, e.g. an hour.

Latinos love populism. I always thought Trump was a Chavez-like leader.

Me too. The irony is that Latinos love for caudillos is one of the things that Trump supports cite as reasons why they are culturally incompatible with America and can't be allowed to immigrate here.
The irony fucking burns.

I am Latino american and I approve of Donald Trump for prison. To save taxpayer money, put Trump in the same cell as Manafort and Flynn. This will make American great again!

The same poll says 27% vote definitely vote for Trump in 2020, 58% would vote against. (see page 19):

Wow! And that's an NPR poll, so the real numbers are higher.

Ha. The dam is cracking but you wouldn’t know it around here.

The same poll says those same Hispanics will vote against Trump 60/40 in 2020.

In which case, ceteris paribus, he will win overall by 55/45 or more.

NPR/PBS Hispanics are a little different from the average. Just like those white boys that harassed the Indian Vietnam Vet are a little different from other white boys.

Turns out those white boys didn't harass the Indian Vietnam vet after all, though.

I'm not interested in the truth. I'm interested in direct action.

Like legislation to ban teenagers from wearing MAGA hats:

"I am calling for a total and complete shutdown of teenagers wearing MAGA hats until we can figure out what is going on. They seem to be poisoning young minds. " House Budget Committee Chairman John Yarmuth

Turns out those kids actually were harassing the Vietnam Vet, as was always perfectly clear on the video. But keep on spinning.

But Tyler turned it into identity politics....

Wrong, it should be lower. Latinos that listen to NPR/PBS are White Hispanics like Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz, not Jose the Lawn Mower Guy.

+1. None of my Mexican friends have even heard of NPR. PBS is just a channel they flip past to get to Telemundo.

Works both ways.
Our local Spanish language channel is right next to the NPR channel on the dial. None of my liberal friends are aware that it exists.

It is a poll. Not of NPR listeners but a representative sample.

The African American approval rate is easily much higher. Social desirability bias has to put a lot of pressure on that group to disapprove of Trump.

No social pressure needed to disapprove of Trump, kiddo.

Immigrants underminig our values!

Definitely. When was the last time you saw anyone do a good rain dance?

Don't tell Pelosi and Schumer!

If they hear, they'll appropriate $5.7 trillion (that's right Trillion) to a 2,000 foot high border wall, and to plant 650,000,000 land mines along the length of the southern border.

If Mexicans voted Republican, Obama would have land-mined the border long ago, and neither Tyler nor NPR would have said a word.

Hmmm... some mildly sarcastic opinions here... whodda' thunkit...

Not to mention revealing.

If you hate immigrants so much, why don't you plant all those landmines on your property? That way these immigrants can't crowd your front yard.

This is a surprise to me, because populism has historically gotten very little traction among voters in Latin America.

VOTING has historically gotten very little traction among voters in Latin America.

In all this schlock that I saw in these comments, you snarky comment made me smile. It was genuinely funny.

But the margin of error on that subsample is going to be huge-- 15% of the sample is Latino, meaning only about 150 were in there. Not nothing, but I wouldn't put a lot of faith in it either way.

Yeah and if I am reading the table right their Latino sample was about 45% Republicans which is way out of whack. Other polls show somewhere around 30%.

We have a winner, folks!

(Though it's probably still the case that Hispanics do not disapprove of Trump as much as many on the left think they do or should.)

This does not bode well for Beto's energizing the Hispanic vote, with his blog posts about "slept late, feeling fuzzy and undecided, going for a jog to get my head on straight" stuff.

(Note: I feel no ill will toward Beto and wish he would have been content to remain congressman of El Paso for life. He would have been allowed to mature into "El Patron" there, and been effective for the environment at the state level.)

Does Beto have mental issues like this man did: "Thomas Francis Eagleton (September 4, 1929 – March 4, 2007) was a United States Senator from Missouri, serving from 1968 to 1987. He is best remembered for briefly being the Democratic vice presidential nominee under George McGovern in 1972. He suffered from bouts of depression throughout his life, resulting in several hospitalizations, which were kept secret from the public. When they were revealed, it humiliated the McGovern campaign and Eagleton was forced to quit the race. "

Don't you think AmeriKKKa has moved on since 1972? Just kidding. About the moving on.

Bonus trivia: Eagleton lived to be 78 despite having severe depression, that's admirable.

Oh, that was insensitive - it didn't occur to me that Beto might be an actual sufferer of depression. Or manic, as seems more likely. Has AmeriKKKa moved on? Are you suggesting the Klan, any representatives of which, by 1972 - as now - would have themselves been certifiably mentally ill, were somehow responsible for Eagleton's fall, because of discrimination against the mentally ill? Or if simply being cute, merely wondering whether Americans were now comfortable with electing a crazy person? I think we have the answer to that. Apparently a surprising number of us were exposed to the views of Thomas Szasz during dumb college, paving the way for us to equate"crazy" with "difficult to control."

U mad bro? :P

Yeah, me and Eddie both.

It would not be good to have 2 crazy men running for P/VP

They show little understainding for the pseudo liberal bs of the democrats given the catholic and conservative background.

My wife has 11 mexican-american cousins who say "build the wall."

This is not just about immigration; its about crime, drugs, taxes, rule of law, health (undocumented also means not vaccinated)... Taxpayers are on the hook for the illegals. Hang on to your wallets.

You know who else is unvaccinated? Trump and his weird anti-vax supporters.

"In 2015, the Pew Research Center conducted a survey of 2 thousand adults which concluded about 12 percent of liberals and 10 percent of conservatives believed that childhood vaccines are unsafe."

"Healthy young child goes to doctor, gets pumped with massive shot of many vaccines, doesn't feel good and changes - AUTISM. Many such cases!" - Donald J. Trump

I think a lot of Mexican-Americans, even the ones who are children of illegal immigrants (or even some who were illegal but obtained legal status), realize that they will never be able to get ahead if they are followed by millions of Central Americans, Caribbeans, and eventually people from parts of the world that are even poorer who just show up and say "asylum". The waves of Mexican immigration in the 70s through the 90s didn't use the asylum system to enter. It may be "hypocritical", but it's also rational self-interest to pull the ladder up after yourself. And this doesn't even account for Cubans and Puerto Ricans, the former of whom have been here longer and almost all who came legally, and the latter who are part of America anyway. Also Dominicans, who are very complex and whose politics tend to split along racial lines (Afro-Dominicans and ones who identify as mestizo-Taino are more leftish, ones who are more mestizo-castizo are rightish).

America. The land of the free, and the home of the I've Got Mine So Close the Door

That and there are way too many white people. Got to fix that national manifestation of true evil.

America. The land of the free, and the home of the I've Got Here Legally, So You Should Too

Trump supporters are the sharpest tools, aren't they?

I bet most anti-immigrant types are also NIMBY types. Mass immigration, like unchecked real estate development, raises property values. I would love to be next to a skyscraper like downtown Manhattan but our northern VA neighbors are all NIMBY.

Those things are back-handed ploys to keep out the poor.

"Mass immigration, like unchecked real estate development, raises property values."

You might be onto something. If so, why is RE developer Trump opposed?

"I would love to be next to a skyscraper like downtown Manhattan . . . " Me, too. But, don't be next to the single family residence that's rented to 15 to 25 professional lawn care equipment operators.

PS - In 1978, I was expelled from the KKK when I showed up wearing a tie-dyed robe and hood.

Trump the RE developer was never opposed to illegal immigration as a practical matter. Trump the politician is opposed to illegal immigration because that was a core issue that got him attention and got him elected. Trump is certainly not the first politician to pursue policies out of political expediency rather than personal conviction.

"My wife has 11 mexican-american cousins who say "build the wall.""

So, adding 5% in length to the existing wall constitutes building the wall - the cheapest part off the "the wall" has been built for $75 billion, so $5.7 billion today is like spending $2-3 billion in the 90s when wall building started, and border crossing was a "problem". Now in the fourth presidency building walls, and $75 billion spend building walls, we have reached a border "crisis".

Which has nothing to do with drugs.

A hard hit State, New Hampshire, has high incomes, high education, a tech economy, robust defense industry creating jobs, low taxes, but a massive opiate addiction problem from doctors prescribing and US drug corporations selling too many drugs, which after government cracked down on legal drug addiction drove the market for illegal opiates, probably coming from Afghanistan by way of Europe and Canada by commercial carriers. But when cutting the opiates reduced the potency, fentanyl delivered by mail from China was used. The overdoses in NH involve mostly fentanyl. The overdose deaths have involved fentanyl over 80% of the time. Given the potency, the total quantity is probably a couple of kilograms for all of NH, broken up into thousands of shipments.

Pot is now legally produced in every state bordering NH: VT, ME, MA, and Canada, so a wall on the Mexican border has no effect on that still illegal drug under NH law. I havent heard a word about coke, crack, LSD in the news, or out of police, or politicians mouths since Trump took office.

Yet, Trump mentioned New Hampshire in his TV prime time schedule disruption demanding his $5.7 billion to build only 5% more wall on the Mexican border.

Mexican Americans in favor of the $5.7 billion in governmebt funded wages are just hoping to get rich because Mexicans are 80-90% of construction workers in the southwest.

Trump's wall means more jobs paying higher wages for "Mexicans", with better working conditions. More border agents means more government jobs, ie, higher wages and benefits, for "Mexicans".

White men left behind by tax cutters voted for Trump on his promise of a trillion dollars in government funded wages building government infrastructure, just like what Hoover and FDR did, but Hoover demabded low wages and harsh working conditions, while FDR just wanted workers paid to work so they would spend more money to businesses paying workers to get to the post war era of so much private demand for workers due to workers spending so much money, wages increased, and household incomes rose even as the percentage of adults working fell.

The border wall is pork barrel spending in the Southwest. All to force a decline in consumer spending in the US. That is the big complaint from conservatives: the high cost of funding consumer spending by new immigrants, which mostly requires paying the immigrants to work harder and longer than white men.

Can your wife's siblings tie up their tubes? If they want less Hispanics in America, they can start first in their own homes.

Nice job, anonamouse!

Of course Latino's must be the demographic most impacted by immigration from south of the US.

It's irresponsible to call attention to a data point that is obviously a massive outlier. 20-25% is the middle of the bell curve.

For perspective, there's plenty of data referenced in this 538 article about Latino (lack of) support for Trump vs support for GOP:

I strongly agree with Logan.

As someone who is trained in statistical analysis this can only be deliberate.

Posts like this, which are occurring with increasing frequency, undermine the entire project to improve society at the margin. This is Facebook post quality not marginal revolution.!response/CP3_2/type/month/filters/SC_RACE:5|6|7/dates/20170201-20180809/collapsed/true

What is NPR/PBS playing at then, do you think?
Genuinely curious. My local affiliate station is pretty much pro-immigrant/anti-Trump editorializing, interspersed with hourlong immigrant "this one family" sob stories; when it's straight news, there's mostly the one topic. Immigrants.

Yeppers, seems like a problematic number of troll bait posts in the mix.

I like to be generous about it, and tell myself the goal is to get his freak on in a safe place, or maybe throw around fringe and dubious ideas in test mode, before taking them mainstream

Not sure why you picked July 2018, but if you extend the graph to the present day it does have Hispanic approval at 36%

Any comment that isn’t pointing 1) the huge margin of error, 2) the unusual pro-GOP distribution of Latinos in this poll, and 3) the wild outlier status is missing the point. Gallup’s daily tracking poll has Hispanic support at 25%, basically same as ever.

More importantly from the poll: 3% of democrat women approve of Trump.

2020 will be a landslide.

If the economy is still booming, Trump probably wins again

I’m not saying you’re wrong. I agree with your general sentiment and logic.

Part of me thinks he’s been so polarizing, and the media has been so accommodating to polarization (Fox, CNN, etc) that it’s becoming cultural meme.

Why would white women vote their “pocketbooks”? Politics has become a moral issue. I think we’ve crossed the Rubicon. You’re asking them to vote for mass murder and racism. Most white women will say no.

It really depends who his opponent is.

Economy won't boom. Even if it did, the rewards go to the few not the many. This seems to a blindspot here where there's a hivemind of libertarians who believe no such thing exists and continually press for lower taxes for the rich while the bottom 80% howl in pain. Then they get all offended when somebody they detest like Trump wins. Libertarians don't understand people because they are an army of analytical Spocks. Until they find a clue, populism will continue to win.


You nailed it. Libertarians, nerds on the spectrum, selfish rich people, and whacko left-wing cultural elites are well represented here.

They will be so shocked, stupified even, when they are caught out in the open during our yellow vest moment.

The Bastille redux - it's going to be delicious.

I can't wait.

So you are an Ocasio-Cortez fan?

a) 25% is an all-time high in that series
b) why the huge gap between that series and reuters? Reuters has 36% for Hispanics

And yet, if you scroll down to asking registered voters, "Thinking about the 2020 election, do you definitely plan to vote for Donald Trump for reelection as president or do you definitely plan to vote against him?" Latinos are 27-58 against. Perhaps an explanation for this discrepancy is that Latinos who are not registered voters find it.. prudent to say they support the president when called by some random dude on the phone?

Something is going to happen one day that will make the Democrats lose a good portion of the black vote. If you spend any time around everyday black folks (meaning, not activists), you get the sense that they and white urban progressives have a disconnect that everyone is trying to ignore.

SNL did slip up once:

Both parties' coalitions are shaky as hell, and make littlensense at thisnpoint except historically.

Having lost the white blue collars, the black blue collars will be next. Once the economic rationale for voting Dem is gone, there's not much left for blue collars, since the GOP definitely outplays the Dems on a range of other red meat issues

So the DEMs will lose everybody. Listen to yourself. You just lost the House by a big margin. Start by not losing the House.

Your assumption about my affiliation is not remotely correct.

Regardless, i woulnt read too much into what the Dems win with Trump helping them out

Never could understand how the Democratic party, with their history of slavery, racism, segregation, and the KKK hoodlums, was able to have a lock on Black voters. The Democratic party has command of most urban centers with the highest social Social pathologies and the highest crime rates.

There was thing that happened starting with Nixon. Read a fucking book.

Stunningly ignorant. Those Dems all switched to GOP ages ago

Not ages ago. Southern states were going Dem all they way up to the 1990's

All the way? The Reagan landslide in the 80s meant that all states (except those socialist Minnesotans) voted R, son.

Even in 1992 there were several Southern states that voted Dem in the Presidential election. And there were down-ballot and mid-term elections as well.

It is deliberate to shock you. But it is presupposed you know how to interpret a single poll.

Consider me shocked, but more context could help those of us who just skim the extracts.

"...a single poll -- whose results one doesn't like."

It's an NPR poll. That means its the "Whitest", higher socioeconomic group of Hispanics that is represented. They eat prefer flour tortillas over corn if that is all I'm saying.

Are you sure? Were they polling their listeners?

Prophets are almost never understood in their own time, and only understood in the breech at any later time

Are the same people criticizing Identity Politics using it when it suits their partisan purposes?

It seems that some people deplore "toxic masculinity" and applaud women that parade around with signs saying, "Nasty Woman," while wearing pink vagina hats.

Or, simply citing a poll which may or may not be valid.

If this poll is accurate why did the Republicans do so poorly in the mid-term elections in states like Nevada, Arizona and California with large Hispanic populations? Even in Florida where the Republicans did better they lsot congressional seats in Dade County.

Hispanics are an extremely heterogeneous group. It’s hard to interpret a statistic that combines Mexicans, Puerto Rican’s, Cubans, Guatemalans, South Americans, and others, some of whom are recent migrants while others have been in the USA for many generations.


Consider Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, and Cubans--three large hispanic blocs with completely different concerns wrt immigration policy.

I have long found it mystifying why Latin-Americans would support more Hispanic immigration. If they preferred to live in a Latino country, what are they doing here?

Because the border states were all Latino countries before Whites invaded, warred over, and stole the land from them.

What? You mean American Indian or something?

Make Mexico Spain Again!

If Trump supporters like white people so much, why don't they just move to Iceland?

Hispanics (Mexicans) leave Hispanic nations and invade the US because they are colonizing us.

Is there some special black disapproval of Donald Trump, or is this just the usual distaste black voters have had for Republicans? I don't remember George W. Bush, or even his dad and Reagan, having black approval rates above 20%.

The 11% is a bit of an outlier -lower than other polls have been showing. Trump outperformed McCain and Romney among black voters and the trends have been up since the election, so I don't think there's any special disapproval. There is a big gender divide on Trump among black voters, just as with whites.

So that is what America has become: a racially devided country where different castes have different stakes in the government.

First they came for ....

The ordinary Latino isn't particularly politically obsessed. He, and others, make a mark next to Trump's name because they're aware of him from his television exposure. Oprah Winfrey could easily win a national election. Jerry Seinfeld would have a good chance as well.


This is true of most people--only a minority pay close attention to politics. Everyone knew Trumps name a decade ago, and that is a huge advantage!

And that's because of Mark Burnett and The Apprentice. Before that show Trump was barely in the popular eye anymore, a washed up developer with a bunch of bankruptcies. Burnett somehow made the hoi polloi see him as some accomplished businessman. Oh well.

Surely this is the epitome of fake news.

Well, no. Not that you would ever actually read anything but the timeline checks out. It's public knowledge when that show aired.

I wouldn't draw too many inferences from a single poll. How many of the respondents were Latino in this survey? Roughly 150. I wouldn't generalize too much from such a small sample. Shame on Tyler for posting these numbers without context or caveats.

The same poll says 58% of Latinos "definitely" plan to vote against Trump in 2020.

If I thought a wall would keep my relatives out of my house I'd certainly be tempted to build one.

Native California Latinos, the originals from 250 years ago, forged under the Franciscans. They are not foreigners, they come from original stock, like east coast USA, we were second generation colonial framework, the 'improved' version. It is a distinct group, socialist bums, yes, but not in any way a non native class and they will behave to preserve the 250 year advanced culture. It was the latinos of California who introdcued public schooling after the civil ware, based on the Franciscan grammar through university regime. Lincoln copied California on state college, via John Fremont. Te original universities predate the east coast in many respects, the that chin today includes some in the world class universities today.

I'm not surprised. I married into a midde/working class mexican american family, and I've come to think results like this poll are only surprising because so much press about latino politics is written by woke whites and "spokespersons for the latino community" (i've started to love the idea of a spokesperson for people from twenty countries who hate each other) who tweet for a living. The key to understanding latino support for trump, which seems strange, is to ignore all symbolism and news analysis.

I started to realize this when Republicans started talking about MS13. Reading Vox and MSNBC, you hear MS13 was getting press only to malign latinos, but my wife's family was already genuinely scared of MS13 (it isn't after all a very new gang). They like to share articles about beheadings and such. Any dog-whistle aspect of national discourse is lost on them. If trump did nothing but rant all day that MS13 members should be shot on sight, I think his approval among latinos would go up. MS13 after all, does kill latinos now and then.

Another moment along these lines: I was in LA for christmas with my wife's family, and one of the guys brought up something crazy: people are saying "Latin-equis" (Latinx). This brought on a bunch of jokes. Mexico will be called Mexicequis, etc. "X" is hardly even used in spanish except for native names, much less after a consonant, and it just seemed the most bizarre idea in the world to them. I was surprised they only heard about latinx in December 2018, but I realized a big difference between them and white people is that none is plugged into national discourse a single bit. This is most obvious in their facebook timelines, which are full of party/family photos, articles about lurid crimes and sometimes milagros. They only leave comments like "looking sexy!" and "pray for Miguel's surgery!" By contrast, my family's timelines are 90% arguing about trump and north carolina bathrooms.

As far as Trump, to my wife's family trump is simply the character he played on the apprentice. He is hilarious, has a hot wife and definitely richer than bill gates. I don't think they can understand what he's saying very well because of how he talks, and I'm sure they don't know about any trump policies other than The Wall, which they think is wild and crazy but not especially important. The only kind of tuned-in remark I've heard is that one cousin did note that Trump fought with the corrupt Enrique Pena Nieto and is friends with the blessed AMLO, because "businessmen like Trump" know when someone is honest. The idea the wall is a "monument to white supremacy" is not on their radar, as, to someone living in a 80% hispanic enclave of LA county, white supremacy is as salient as the hole in the ozone layer was.

Wall of opinion, but he's not really at 50% approval at the end of it all, maybe 40%.

I have also married into a Mexican American family and have a similar experience. They are not especially political people except on the topic of Central Americans, whom they fear as criminals. The Central American caravan is apparently causing trouble in northern Mexican right now and you should hear my mother in law rant about that!

Interesting and probably untrue; the slogan of the intellectual venture capitalist.

Spent time this aftenoon with a Honduran immigrant who is a doctor here. Sensing I wasn't a fan of mayor de blasio, he volunteered to tell me he was a Trump voter. I responded by saying I am not a fan and hope for a boring president in 2020.

Ask him if he is paying higher taxes thanks to Trump's tax "cuts."

Recalculated from
Georgetown Baker Center Poll June 12 - July 19, 2018 Sample size 5400
Thermometer rating of Donald Trump (0-100)
White disapproval: 48.79% (0-49)
Black disapproval: 72.28%
Hispanic disapproval: 58.45%
Asian disapproval: 60.05%
White approval: 48.07% (50-100)
Black approval: 21.23%
Hispanic approval: 33.99%
Asian approval: 33.03%
White NA: 3.14%
Black NA: 6.45%
Hispanic NA: 7.58%
Asian NA: 6.94%
Voted Trump
White : 42.70%
Black : 7.11%
Hispanic: 17.28%
Asian : 16.46%
White : 63.74%
Black : 11.94%
Hispanic: 16.01%
Asian : 6.95%

You see???? Those Hispanic immigrants are destroying American culture!

Participation rates matter as well. One of the curious things about the 2016 election is that Latino voting percentages stayed the same as in previous presidential elections (49%) even with all of Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric. Then there is the fact that the electorate is only 6% Latino. It’s one reason why I think the brown wave that the Democrats seem to have been waiting on for years doesn’t materialize. Also Latinos often see themselves as outside the main racial historical narrative in the US.

Maybe they can tell the difference between someone being against illegal immigrants and being against immigrants? Trump's wife is an immigrant, after all. By definition, any legal voter isn't here illegally, they're a citizen. Attitudes common among illegals aren't 100% relevant to legal immigrants.

Wasn't Melania an illegal actually? She overstayed her visa, which is how the majority of illegals come here (not crossing the Rio Grande), which is another reason why the wall is a bad idea.

One reason to be suspicious of this poll's reported results regarding Hispanics is the ongoing spate of stories and polls (although none of the latter since the shutdown started that I can find) about attitudes in the counties near the US-Mexican border. All of these find these people to be overwhelmingly opposed to the wall, and this population is also overwhelmingly Hispanic. The few people in those areas for the wall seem to be almost totally white rancher types. This is in spite of the possibly positive employment opportunities offered by constructing the wall as well as possible fear of fresh batches of poor immigrants taking away jobs. If anything, people in those areas say they need more workers.

If somehow this poll really does reflect accurate Hispanic sentiment (last measured in December as being only 31% pro-Trump), then it looks like it is ones not near the border, although it is far from obvious to me why we would see such a dramatic shit in sentiment on this matter among such people since the shutdown.

The margin of error on the Latino subsample of this survey (153 people) is 8 percentage points, which overlaps the error bars on the White subsample. It's not a significant difference; just 15 people. Could be a blip.

In my part of the Southwest, Hispanics aren't one thing. Natives are religious, identify with European ancestry (despite some obvious sidetracks), have been here longer than most of the rest of us, and aren't that fond of immigrants. I'm generalizing but I think my comments are broadly accurate. My only point is, "Hispanic" isn't one thing any more than "White."

It's interesting that in no region do the Trump supports approve as a majority and only one region doesn't disapprove by a majority.

Scratch that -- completely misread the line thinking it was a heading for the regional assessments...

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