Indian and Pakistani stock markets

Right now the Indian market is up a small amount for the week, of course that may change.

I know you all love to yelp that markets don’t predict well (not what markets do!…that word “predict” is loaded) and that stock markets did not predict WWII, etc.  The lack of an Indian market reaction here is fully consistent with the fact that prediction is very hard.  Investors might simply be unsure which priors to update, and thus prices haven’t changed much.  That is consistent with the work of Philip Tetlock, also indicating that prediction is very hard.  So this kind of market result does not have to conflict with the best knowledge we have from political science and the other social sciences.

The Pakistan stock exchange, by the way, is down a few percentage points but not seeing massive carnage.