My podcast with Julia Galef

Julia interviews me, definitely recommended.

Comments

Well, definitely self-recommended.

the interview is also postmoderngender theorist recommended

Right here is the right site for everyone who wishes to understand this topic.
You know so much its almost hard to argue
with you (not that I personally will need to…HaHa). You definitely put a fresh
spin on a topic that's been discussed for a long time.
Excellent stuff, just wonderful!

I thank President Captain Bolsonaro for his leadership.

Wow! I have listened to, watched, and read many interviews of Cowen, but this one is different. Of course, with Cowen, one never quite knows. Well done.

Julia Galef is an incredibly incisive interviewer who asks very challenging questions, and Cowen did a great job fielding them. This was one of the very best episodes of the typically excellent Rationally Speaking podcast.

Agreed! Very interesting discussion they had about the value of "betting on beliefs". Tyler's idea that there seems to be a "comeuppance" aspect to it is something that I never really considered. Who shall bet on the bettors!?

Will Tyler ever interview Tyrone, or vice versa?

Obviously recommended! Or self-recommending?

Cowen says "anti-big business sentiment is on the rise", but I don't see a poll that shows this. I looked at Cowen's book and he opens with "Among Democrats, "Socialism'" now polls better than "capitalism". But Republicans, while they pay lip service to some business ideals are not in practice much better."

First, a Gallop poll shows 53% had a positive view of big business in 2016 and 50% did in 2018, about the same. Another Gallop poll that asks: "Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one -- a great deal, quite a lot, some or very little?" shows little change for big business but there has been a recent decrease of those saying they lacked confidence: ("very little" and "none")

2018 30%
2017 39%
2016 38%
2015 37%
2014 37%
2013 33%
2012 38%
2011 38%
2010 39%
2009 41% (peak of the recession)
2008 34%
2005 31%
2000 24%
1995 26%
1990 31%
1985 24%
1979 28%

https://news.gallup.com/poll/5248/big-business.aspx

The confidence in small business has hardly changed from 2009.
(Percent who say "a great deal" and "quite a lot" of confidence).

2018 67%
2017 70%
2016 68%
2015 67%
2014 62%
2013 64%
2012 63%
2011 64%
2010 66%
2009 67%
2008 60%
1998 57%

With respect to Democrats having a better of socialism than capitalism, a Gallup poll shows from 2010, this has only been true in 2018, 47% versus 57% where it had been closer to a tie. In 2016 it was 56% versus 58% and in 2012, 55% versus 53%.

Cowen writes that "Republicans are in practice not much better" as they have gone along with Trump's trade protection, etc. but the contrast is stark relative to Democrats where 71% have a favorable view of capitalism with only 16% having a favorable view of socialism and that has held since 2010.

Among all 18 to 29 year olds, those having a favorable view of socialism has stayed about the same at around 51% in 2018. However those holding a positive view of capitalism has dropped to 47% in 2018 from 57% in 2016 and 68% in 2010.

With those 30 to 49, 58% have a positive view of capitalism, which hasn't changed much, and 41% have a positive view of socialism - up from 2016 but the same as 2012.

For 50 to 64 year olds, 60% have a favorable view of capitalism, which is down from 69% in 2016 and 64% in 2010, yet 30% have a favorable view of socialism and that hasn't changed much.

Among those 65 and older, 60% have a positive view of capitalism, up from 54% in 2010, whereas 28% have a positive view of socialism, which is up from 27% in 2016 but down from 36% in 2012.

"Americans' positive views of socialism have varied only between 35% and 39%, with this year's reading of 37% right at the trend average."

Here's a graph for 2010 to 2018:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/240725/democrats-positive-socialism-capitalism.aspx

Your posts/comments are supporting his underlying argument correct?
If we just employ a general pre-post vs. control adjacent framework to the numbers you shared, which point towards a non/decline or increase of confidence in small business (a quasi-control-group) and a decrease in trust (or increase in lack of trust) of big business for the last decade compared to the prior period, it suggests that trust of big business has declined relative to trust of non-big-business.

Tyler is wrong to say "anti-big business sentiment is on the rise" when those who lack confidence in big business has recently dropped quite a bit - 9 percentage points in just one year.

I added the increased trust in small business as an interesting aside but there is no sign that I can see that Tyler is correct. Here are those who say they trust big business "a great deal", "quite a lot" or "somewhat":

2018 68% <-- Tyler is writing his book at peak trust
2017 59%
2016 61%
2015 62%
2014 59%
2009 58% <-- the Great Recession
2005 67% <-- same as 2018
2000 74% <-- right before a recession
1995 71%
1990 65%

https://news.gallup.com/poll/5248/big-business.aspx

Weird causal inference strategy to attempt to "falsify" a claim with one year of data that deviates from the prior 10 years, instead of trusting a ten year period vs. the 20 years before that. I look at that data and see nothing that suggests anything other than TC's claim.

I wasn't trying to falsify anything. I was just curious when this "anti-big business is on the rise" trend began. Anyone listening to that would assume fairly recently but there has been no rise in an anti-big business sentiment over the past 13 years and an interesting significant increase in trust in big business recently.

I didn't think it was necessary to list even more years but

2008 63%
2007 57%
2006 58%

My two favorite podcast hosts! Excellent!

The real truth about Red China: https://scmp.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7b1e9e7f8075914aba9cff17f&id=8971629465&e=ec017d063f

Okay. Yeah. Yeah, hmm hmm. How so? Oh you do, okay? Nahhh. Got it. This is useful, clarifying. That was helpful, thank you. My views on all issues are now whatever the opposite is of Galef.

She talks like a normal person. She is, however, incredibly smart and reasonable. I wouldn't be so quick to discount her.

Possibly the best interview of Tyler

Excellent discussion! Initially Galef at times seems to be almost superficial but that is not the case. She has done her research and is pleasingly relentless.

I hope the Tyler Cowen healthcare book is next!

Comments for this post are closed