Category: Travel
On Brazilian food
Every now and then I will write a piece on food for Works in Progress. Here is my piece on eating in Brazil:
Brazil, like most large nations, also offers multiple cuisines. For instance you can go to Minas Gerais for pork and beans. Minas beans would be my favorite of what I have sampled, surpassing Mexico. Belem serves cuisine from the Amazon region, including exotic river fish, dried shrimp, duck, and rice, with flavors from cassava, manioc, and the local fruit. You cannot get those dishes in many other places.
Feijoada is of slave origins, and is often associated with Rio de Janeiro, but it has evolved into a national dish, available almost everywhere. Think rice, black beans, collard greens, orange slices, and farofa, a kind of manioc flour, with different parts of the pig mixed in. At home I cook the vegetarian version of this dish. The coolness and sweetness of the orange go well with the sandy texture of the farofa, and the meal hardly costs anything to make.
Rio de Janeiro offers highly cosmopolitan options, and the city has a tradition of excellent French and Continental restaurants.
The best churrascarias I have had were on the outskirts of Curitiba in the south. You can get an excellent pasta meal combined with your choice of many kinds of meat, leading to an impossibly large quantity of food at your disposal. I favored these establishments more in my youth, but if you have never tried them, you are missing something.
Campo Grande, the booming agro-city in central western Brazil, has a derivative form of Okinawan soba (!) as a dining specialty. I regret that, due to a delayed flight connection, I have yet to try this apparent delicacy.
There is much more at the link, recommended.
*This Beautiful Country*
The author is Edward Cutler and the subtitle is How Italy’s Nature Shaped its Culture and Civilisation. This is an excellent book on how “the Italy you know” has been shaped by its natural environment, such as its mountains, rivers, geology, and so on. Ever wondered why Sardinia is different? The book is good at sticking to specifics. Excerpt:
This extraordinary overlap has made Italy the continent’s botanical crossroads and one of its greatest arboreal sanctuaries. Within Europe, few countries host such a variety of native trees: at least 140 species, more than almost anywhere west of the Balkans. Some, like the Sicilian fir, Lobel’s maple and the Etna birch, are totally unique. The structure of Italy’s forests is equally diverse — dense, high-altitude canopies, open oak pastures, cork scrub and coastal maquis, each shaped by centuries of disturbance and renewal. This is the legacy of a land that sreved first as Europe’s refuge during the Ice Ages and later as its great corridor of return, where northern, eastern and African floras met and mingled in perpetual exchange.
Recommended to all those with an interest in Italy.
My excellent Conversation with Luis Garicano
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is part of the episode summary:
Tyler and Luis start their conversation with Spain — housing, NIMBYism, and the productivity crisis; Spanish literature and why the Civil War still looms so large; and what Chicago taught Luis about party discipline in European politics. Then to the EU’s unanimity problem, capital markets, and Denmark’s flexicurity model; a round of overrated-versus-underrated on Rosalía, Penélope Cruz, and Sgt. Pepper’s; and finally into Messy Jobs — why retraining programs fail, whether AI’s leisure dividend has arrived, and whether Spain could ever achieve AI sovereignty.
Excerpt:
COWEN: Why is there a current productivity crisis in Spain?
GARICANO: Productivity indeed hasn’t grown for three decades, more or less. We’re currently having extensive growth. We’re having immigration, we’re having tourism, but we don’t really have productivity. A lot of it has to do with the political economy. I think if you want to explain the West, not just Spain, you have to understand who is voting and who is this being governed for. Spain is a particularly low-fertility, high life-expectancy country. We have the fifth-lowest fertility and the fifth-highest life expectancy in the world grosso modo, and very high pensions.
Essentially, all the GDP growth we’ve had has gone, 100 percent of the GDP growth we’ve had since 2008 has gone to pensions, to the pensioners. In terms of investment, there is very little in terms of productive investment. We have this fantastic highway network and this high-speed rail network. It’s not really getting the maintenance it needs. Just as one example, the country is basically being governed by and for the older retired people.
COWEN: What does the optimistic scenario look like? You don’t have to predict it’s going to happen, but lay out for me how it could all go well. You would get productivity growth of 1.5 percent a year, and economic growth a bit higher than that.
GARICANO: Spain has amazing fundamentals for the current situation, meaning we could easily be very electricity-energy rich due to solar, wind, and nuclear. We have all this empty space where you could put nuclear plants without much resistance. In fact, we are closing them for political reasons. The energy could be a big advantage. It’s a really amazing place to live. There is no more diverse geography and climate and nature anywhere in Europe, I think, or close to, and beautiful. You could easily see a situation where Spain becomes Florida, or Austin, Texas. Think of Texas. It attracts technology, attracts talent who wants to live there, attracts energy, builds the data centers, et cetera. That scenario is not impossible. The political economy is the tricky part.
COWEN: Doesn’t that mean you actually don’t have good fundamentals? You said you don’t even have a YIMBY movement. Life there really is quite good. I’ve been many times. It’s one of my favorite countries to visit. Isn’t that like a resource curse where there’s no sense of crisis? Old people live for a long time. It’s very comfortable. The weather’s great. The food is amazing. Aren’t those, in fact, liabilities in a time of very rapid change?
And another, on a very different topic:
COWEN: On Messy Jobs, your new and excellent book, you argue very persuasively, “In my view, AI will not lead to anything like mass unemployment, maybe not even to a rise in unemployment, because jobs will become messier and the AIs won’t be able to do them.” Is that a fair description of part of your argument?
GARICANO: I think that’s completely right. Yes.
COWEN: Now, I agree with you, but I think my worry is the opposite, that I know a lot of people, they want simple jobs, they’re okay with some measure of tedium, and that if most jobs become messy jobs, for them, that’s quite stressful, and they’re upset and disoriented. Do you worry about that?
GARICANO: I think that we will have to have a tolerance for human relations. Is that what your friends don’t want? We have a tolerance for relational work that is complex, that has politics in it, that has a big human component, and that’s the part that is going to stay. If people just want to be in their desk typing away, I think two good ways to think about it is work from home and outsourcing. If you think of which jobs were offshored, let me say offshored, in the big offshoring wave to India, those are jobs that are not messy. They’re clean. The company specifies the jobs. They say, “Okay, we can specify this job perfectly. Let’s ship you up.”
Those jobs are the same exact ones that are under complete threat of disruption. A lot of the work from home, when it doesn’t involve a lot of submittings, I guess, has the same feature. Those jobs are clean, single-task, and very often verifiable. You can just see how the performance is going and have your RL, your reinforcement learning loop work on those. I think those are gone.
The messy component that I want to emphasize, many people will say, “Oh, AI will tend to the messiness as well.” I think that there is some messiness that is contingent and that AI can streamline, but there is a lot of messiness that is both relational and has to do with a deeper aspect of the knowledge problem that doesn’t really go away. As AI advances, many aspects of Hayek, Polanyi, and all these knowledge problems are still there.
COWEN: How much retraining will be required and how frequent will that retraining have to be? If I think of me working with agents, I have to retrain myself every month or two. That’s difficult for me. It’s not stressful given my position, but I can imagine it would be stressful. Can we really just put a big chunk of the labor force through that?
Definitely recommended.
Armenia notes
I strongly recommend a trip to Armenia, now is a great time to go. Here are a few things I noticed:
1. The country remains intellectual. The book fair is well attended. The classical music season is excellent, with good concerts multiple times a week, and the theatre scene, in both Armenian and Russian, is active. The country has only a little more than three million people, yet they have won gold medal in the chess Olympiad three times in recent memory. You could say the country has maintained the (few) strengths of the former Soviet Union, and is arguably the only place that has. It feels more like the former Soviet Union than Russia does.
2. The National Gallery has excellent Soviet and Russian paintings, while their Armenian collection is definitive. The Medieval Manuscripts museum is first-rate. Unfortunately, neither does anything to put images online, but all the more reason to go.
3. Armenian society is nearly 100% white and 100% Christian, as most of the immigrants (is that the right word here?) are Russian. Crime is close to zero, and the cars stop when you try to cross the street. Being a loyal northern Virginian, that mix is not “my thing.” But if that is what you wish to experience, if only briefly, Armenia is the place that serves it up without apology. Even secular Armenians have great respect for the national Apostolic church, as they view it as a guardian of Armenian independence.
4. The old monasteries are A level sights, and many of them are mere day trips from Yerevan, the capital. Most of the tourists you see at these are Russians, not Westerners. You also will see some Iranian tourists.
5. Yerevan is not great for old buildings, but the city is very walkable and pleasant and lively. I believe the winters are brutal, but September there is wonderful, every day was perfect weather.
5b. In Armenia you will see how their brutalism in fact comes from their earlier religious architectural traditions, and how the newer churches embody modern brutalist ideas as well. I found this very interesting.
6. I have a separate piece coming out on food in Armenia, for now I will just say it is excellent and novel as well.
7. Armenia is not dirt cheap, but it is much cheaper than most of Europe and so can be considered a bargain in relative terms.
8. Almost everyone in Yerevan speaks good Russian. The influence of Russia is embedded in virtually every institution, people like Russia, Russia supplies most of their energy, and is the number one trading partner. Russian troops protect them from Turkey. A Russian does not even need a passport to enter and live in Armenia. Russia is a permanent fixture in Armenian life, and most people do not seem to mind that. They are very disappointed that Putin did not protect them more in the war with Azerbaijan, but that is their major source of discontent, not that Russia and Putin are evil.
9. Armenia has close relations with Iran, and Armenians do not seem to hate Iran. They regard the country as a partial counterweight to Turkey, and for that matter Russia. People in Armenia are very conscious of the x-risk represented by Turkey. They also will speak to you about history in great detail, and they are very wrapped up in their past history. They are very familiar with maps.
10. You can see Mount Ararat, supposed resting place of Noah’s Ark, from the outskirts of Yerevan. It is beautiful. It remains on the Armenian currency, and in the hearts of Armenians, yet it is now part of Turkey and is very likely to remain so. Armenians refer to that part of Turkey as “Western Armenia.”
11. Here is someone else’s exaggerated take on the place, no it will not be the next Poland.
I would put it this way. At any point in time, there are a few parts of the world that are perfect for visiting and viewing. They should be comfortable, but still exotic and not overtouristed. Not dangerous, and not too full of hassles, yet replete with challenging and stimulating experiences. Yunnan in China is one such place. Currently, aAzerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia all fit this designation. They all have complex histories, and are not always in great shape, so now is the time to go. They will never get better to visit, and right now they are pretty close to perfect as destinations. See what you can, while you can.
Scott Beaulier interviews me, in part about Wyoming
Why Papua New Guinea is so interesting
And this leads to the most interesting part of this story: how the highlanders were so isolated for so long.
I want to acknowledge that the highlanders were not completely, hermetically sealed off from the outside world – it’s just that knowledge of outside world never actually made it to them or vice versa.
Over time, a few goods did make their way up to the highlands: pigs, about 3,000 years ago; the sweet potato, which is South American and arrived about 300 to 400 years ago; and tobacco, also American, which came the same way.
The journey the sweet potato and tobacco took to get there is a good example of how this all worked without transmitting further information. The Spanish and Portuguese brought both plants to the spice islands (in what is now Indonesia), just off the western tip of New Guinea, in the 1500s. The sultanates had been trading with the western tip of the coastal region of New Guinea for centuries. So the plants crossed over and started moving east along the coast and up into the interior. Beyond that point, there were no merchants. But when a woman married into the next clan over, she took cuttings from her family’s garden with her. Each new family then planted the same, saw that it worked, and passed it on. At that pace the sweet potato crossed the highlands in a century or two, with nobody knowing where it came from beyond the tribe beside them.
And what fascinates me is that even with the highlands as sealed off as they were, such significant goods still got in. Sweet potatoes allowed a population explosion in the highlands: they give far more calories per acre, and pigs can live off them. So in a 10,000 year sealed off universe, after the invention of agriculture, the biggest change to highland life happened in the last 500 years, which I guess isn’t a coincidence, as the sweet potato got there through the same structural forces that later brought the Australians.
Here is much more from Daniel Frank, fascinating throughout.
My excellent Conversation with Annie Lowrey
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is the episode summary:
Annie Lowrey’s new book, The Time Tax, argues that the most regressive levy in American life is the hours each of us must spend on hold, in waiting rooms, and filling out forms a competent state would have pre-filled — roughly fifty a year on average, and far more if you’re poor. Tyler spends much of this conversation pressing the opposite case, asking whether that bureaucracy is quietly serving a useful purpose by rationing knee surgeries that don’t work, deterring fraud, or screening for immigrants with gumption.
So Tyler and Annie hash it out over an hour, covering why TANF and other welfare programs are the worst offenders, the political economy of submerged benefits like the child tax credit, whether the postal service should be zeroed out over ten years the way Denmark did, whether the government should be nudging people out of rural areas, lessons from the COVID unemployment fraud, areas where the time tax is flat instead of regressive, which private sector time taxes are most onerous, whether AI agents will pay these taxes for us within five years, the logic of easy benefits plus randomized harsh audits, the case for less federalism, whether voting should be easier or harder, how the UBI studies changed her priors, where you can find the best moss in the world, her favorite example of Brutalist architecture, tattoos as permanent ephemera, Christianity’s role in liberalism and the post-Christian right, how reporting beats tourism, the time tax of friendship, what she’ll learn next, and more.
Excerpt:
LOWREY: The postal service and Social Security’s retirement programs. Those are both pretty good. Social Security also has other programs, SSI, which is mostly used by very, very low-income seniors with disabilities or who are blind. Disability insurance is run by the Social Security Administration. The retirement program, it’s less than 1 percent overhead. It’s great. It does all the work for you.
COWEN: Isn’t our whole postal service a time tax in the aggregate? Denmark, just this year, abolished its postal service. They don’t have any. Now, I understand we’re not in a position to do exactly the same, but shouldn’t we be moving away from postal service, basically zeroing it out over the next 10 years?
LOWREY: Did they make it so that it’s all digital? Did they digitize things?
COWEN: Well, I don’t know who the “they” is. Direct mail there has gone away.
LOWREY: Oh, yes, that’s interesting. I don’t know. I think in a high inequality country such as ours, where you still have a lot of people who don’t have smartphones and don’t have computers, that’s why I would be very concerned about the postal service going away.
COWEN: That’s why we need 10 years. You want to tax people, tax in the broad sense of the term, living in rural areas, if only because it’s much harder to have government help them, right?
LOWREY: Yes.
COWEN: If rural areas don’t get mail anymore, maybe that’s a good thing.
LOWREY: I don’t think that that’s a good thing for the people in the rural areas, though. There’s always going to be people in rural areas. As a general point, do you want the government to be encouraging people to not live in rural areas?
COWEN: Absolutely, that’s me. Welcome to the show.
LOWREY: That’s feels very nanny state-ish of you, Tyler.
COWEN: I don’t want to subsidize rural areas, and we do it in so many ways, including with our farm programs.
LOWREY: We do. We really, really absolutely do.
COWEN: It gets harder to help people with government. There’s a lot more market power in rural areas, like how many supermarkets are there, how many hospitals, probably just one, if that. Let’s get everyone into the suburbs, or heaven forbid, the cities.
LOWREY: I can’t imagine a less popular policy than that.
COWEN: Absolutely.
Interesting throughout, and full of good spirit. Again, here is Annie’s very good book The Time Tax: How Government Wastes Our Time — And How to Fix It.
*Why Not Bolivia?*
The author is Calvin Korponai, and the subtitle is From Macchu Picchu into Bolivia in search of the Garden of Eden. Bolivia is a fantastic country to visit, more original than most people are expecting, and this is the book to tell you why. Excerpt:
The landscape itself is like noting else in the Americas. The altiplano is flat in the way that only vast geological formations can be flat, not the flatness of a plain that was once a sea, but the flatness of a plateau that was raised bodily by tectonic forces millions of years ago and then scoured by ten thousand years of wind and ice into the extraordinary emptiness it presents today. The horizon in every direction is uninterrupted. The sky is immense, a dome of blue so saturated at this altitude that photographs rarely convey it accurately, because the camera’s sensor cannot process a blue that contains no haze, no moisture, no atmospheric diffffusion between the sun and the surface.
And:
Arriving at El Alto International Airport (which sits on the altiplano above the city at forty-one hundred meters, making it the highest international airport in the world), you step off the plane into air so thin that the simple act of carrying your luggage to the terminal produces a shortness of breath that is mildly alarming if you have never experienced it and completely normal if you have. The airport itself is unremarkable. What happens next is not. You get into a taxi or bus and the driver takes you to the edge of the antiplano, and then the city appears, not gradually but all at once, a cascade of buildings and lights and terracotta roofs pouring down the walls of a canyon so steep and so deep that the bottom is invisible from the rim. La Paz does not reveal itself slowly. It drops away beneath you like a held breath released.
Recommended, and yes Cochabamba is an amazing food city.
Yerevan bleg
Any advice on this front is most welcome, thank you!
My excellent Conversation with Luke Burgis
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is the episode summary:
Luke Burgis left Wall Street after two years, founded a few successful companies in his twenties, then walked away to spend three years in a Roman seminary on the path to the priesthood. He now runs the Cluny Institute and teaches at Catholic University. His book Wanting made René Girard legible to a general audience; the new one, The One and the Ninety-Nine, takes mimetic theory into the dynamics of self and crowd in an age of social contagion.
He joined Tyler to discuss whether the age of pessimism is ending, why the Anglo world in particular seems so unhappy, whether Dostoevsky or Thomas Mann better diagnoses modernity, the kind of reader his own book would ruin, why he thinks AI will make social contagion weaker, what put him off consulting with Anthropic on Claude’s constitution, what effective altruism misses, why men and women are drifting apart, what he’d fund in every American city, the case for reintroducing friction, whether a Gnostic reading of the lost sheep explains our moment, what Rod Dreher gets right about withdrawal, why Genoa is Italy’s most underrated city, what confession times reveal about a church, why Italians seem tired of their Catholicism, why he didn’t become a priest, where he differs from Ross Douthat, why exorcists appear to be on the rise, the sudden mimetic antisemitism on the right, the book his 23-year-old self would have hated, what he secretly admires about Silicon Valley, why Michigan never left him, what the original Cluny can teach a modern talent network, how he hopes to face his own death, what he’ll do next, and more.
Excerpt:
COWEN: I’m not saying you’ll ever do it, but what does your escape fantasy look like? One of mine is I’ll go live in a third-tier city in Mexico. I’m not going to do it, but sometimes I think about it. Cost of living would be very low. The food would be amazing. I could improve my Spanish.
BURGIS: It is moving to Genoa with my family, making my US income, living in Italy. I love Italy. I love the food. I love the people. I love the culture. I feel lighter while I’m there. I laugh more. We eat dinner later. I love everything about it. It would probably be living in Italy for the most part, or at least making that my home base, brushing up on my Italian, working less.
COWEN: Why Genoa? It’s a wonderful city. It’s still medieval, right, in a funny way?
BURGIS: It’s medieval. I think it’s the most underrated city in Italy.
COWEN: In Italy, I mean, yes. I agree. Yes.
BURGIS: I think it’s the most underrated city. You agree.
COWEN: I took my wife there. She was stunned. “How come no one goes to Genoa?” She was telling me.
BURGIS: It’s close to Cinque Terre. It’s this city that’s elevated. It has a fascinating history. It was still a very functional port city. It was really the most important city in Italy, arguably the world, during when Spain was a great power. It’s very cosmopolitan. It reminds me of Marseille a little bit. It’s vertical, breathtaking views. The people there, they’re not very touristy. The Italians there seem indifferent to you as a tourist.
It just feels very, very homey. It’s so close to a lot of other great things in Italy. You can get to Torino relatively easily. That whole area up there, Bra, where the Slow Food movement originated, you’re just in striking distance from everything. Nobody I know that goes to Italy goes to Genoa. I plead with them. I’m like, “Please, just go to Genoa.”
COWEN: I am the exception. My wife sometimes talks of wanting to live in the smaller towns nearby, which we’re not going to do because we’re slated for a third-tier city in Mexico, but we’re not going to do that either. I sometimes think of Northern Italy as a place where there were fewer different dimensions for mimetic desire. That is, more people dress the same. There are fewer status dimensions, maybe less room for eccentrics compared to America. Do you think that’s true, or do you think I’m off base? Paris is a bit like this also. There’s a certain notion of what kind of shoes an Italian man should wear. They wear them, and they’re amazing, and actually more affordable than here. There’s a sameness to some things.
Recommended, and do note Luke’s new book The One and the Ninety-Nine: Forging Identity in an Age of Social Contagion.
Rothko show in Florence
In Museo San Marco there is an ancillary exhibit, placing some smaller, lighter colored Rothkos next to their Fra Angelico frescoes. Those rooms bowled me over, as for one thing they show how much Rothko was a religious painter at heart.
I also was struck by the high proportion of Chinese visitors at this show, even though they are not especially numerous in Florence right now.
The main Rothko show, at Palazzo Strozzi, had an opening room showing Rothkos tied to Renaissance (!) art, mostly with works from early Rothko. The rest of the exhibit had perfect lighting and was the best Rothko display I have seen.
Ken Griffin has very good taste in Rothko. One of his works is here.
Visiting Florence in August is less unbearable than I was expecting. So many other places have become crowded that the situation here does not phase me. Plus the heat is keeping many away? At dinnertime, there is no crush to get into the restaurants.
Moving on shortly, just here for one day!
The Rug Belt Atlas and Quiz
I have an amateur interest in Oriental rugs but my eye is untrained. Thus, for fun and learning I created with Fable a Rug Atlas and quiz.
Check it out. Constructive comments welcome.
P.S. The site is in fact safe! Working on getting it recognized.
Trial Lawyers Lobby Against Autonomous Vehicles
Roughly 37,000–40,000 Americans die in auto accidents every year. We now have large‑scale, real‑world evidence—from Waymo and a joint analysis with Swiss Re—that driverless operations can be substantially safer than matched human driving within their current operating domains. The latest data show that over 220 million miles driven, Waymo vehicles–in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, Austin and Atlanta–have 94% fewer serious injuries, 82% fewer air bag deployments, and 93% fewer pedestrian injuries. The evidence is not fully independent, but it is unusually transparent, large‑scale evidence.
So with thousands of lives annually in the balance who is against autonomous vehicles (AVs)? Trial lawyers. Remarkably the trial lawyers saw the writing on the wall very early and the have been lobbying against AVs for nearly a decade! The American Association for Justice, the trial lawyers’ lobby, has been a prominent opponent to AV legislation (see also reports here). (They have been joined by Democrats worried about labor and demanding that heavy trucks be excluded).
The trial lawyers earn a huge amount litigating ordinary auto accidents–Annual U.S. auto insurance payouts (liability + PIP/MedPay) are on the order of $180–220B and trial lawyers are very eager to retain the right to sue car manufacturers for product liability. In my view, product liability isn’t useful as a safety device in this field. Instead, the solution is simple. Every car should be required to be insured, regardless of driver. Indeed, Waymo vehicles are already insured at $5 million liability coverage per vehicle, far higher levels than most human drivers are covered.
The UK’s Automated and Electric Vehicles Act 2018 does basically this–a single insurer covers the vehicle whether the human or the automated system is driving; the victim is compensated directly by the insurer, no need to establish product defect; the insurer then subrogates against the manufacturer if the software was at fault. Victims get paid fast, manufacturers face the cost of their defects through recoveries and premiums, and the high-transaction costs (i.e. lawyer fees!) and messy manufacturer-versus-victim litigation is replaced by insurer-versus-manufacturer bargaining between repeat players who settle efficiently.
The great thing about this system is that insurance almost certainly deters better than tort: fleets generate data that makes experience rating precise, so insurers become continuous safety regulators, whereas litigation delivers a noisy, lagged, lottery like signal depending on safety-irrelevant factors of the jury and the locale.
We have the best data on Waymo, Tesla data is murkier but note how well this works with the insurance system. Let the insurers decide how much to charge Tesla robotaxis and FSD drivers–they will internalize the externality far better than tort lawyers. In short, insurance works great for accident victims but not for trial lawyers. Indeed, if the trial lawyers have their way accident victims will continue to be buried in an invisible graveyard.
Hat tip: Andy Hall and Jon Slotkin.
Spreading AI to the rest of the world
Another job we’ll have, I call this imperialism, but I mean that in a value neutral way. But AI comes to different parts of the world at different speeds. I think the countries where AI changes a lot of things first, there’ll be a very high demand for people from those places, which I’ll think to be the US, possibly UK, to go around the rest of the world and teach people in other places how to integrate AI into what we have. And a lot of those demands won’t be fully rational. They won’t be, oh, give us the best possible AI. They’ll be like, oh, we’re Peruvians. We want to keep things a certain way. You may or may not agree, but we want you to give us a version of AI that helps keep it that way. And that will be the job. And I think Americans in particular, probably Brits as well, huge growth sector will be living in other parts of the world spreading AI. And again, the fact that AI can do it better may or may not be true, but I don’t think it’s what will matter. I think the Peruvians or some analogue will want humans to come and listen to their concerns and assure and persuade them as humans, that’s what they’re going to get. I’m not saying it’s always going to go well, but that will always be, I think, a big job for humans to do.
It’s already a growth sector for Americans to want to live abroad. Like we have all this accumulated wealth. Life in America can be a bit dull. Life in Europe in particular is amazing. Personally, I love life in most parts of Latin America. So it’s already a trend for Americans to live overseas. For another reason, it’s nothing to do with AI. So if there are all these future job opportunities, like full of meaning, like come to Kenya, help Kenya, you can save 73 lives or maybe like 73,000 lives, help them build out their AI in a way that’s acceptable to them. That’ll just be this phenomenally rich inner and outer life. And I think it’ll be a great source of job creation.
I have already linked to the transcript of the talk.
Wiesbaden notes
Who goes to Wiesbaden these days? The era of Russian nobles taking the cure here and gambling is long since gone. And yet here we are. The proximate cause of this trip is the desire to see Grigory Sokolov, one of the world’s great pianists and a cult figure of sorts. He rarely tours North America, maybe these days never as he is 76. The current program includes Beethoven’s fourth piano sonata, Beethoven’s Op.126 Bagetelles, and Schubert’s last piano sonata. How can one say no? Sokolov also was a favorite of Tom Schelling, I might add, especially his recording of The Art of the Fugue, in my view one of the best classical music recordings of all time.
Besides, I have long been a believer in semi-random excursions to mid-size, slightly neglected German cities. There remains a strong cultural federalism in Germany, and so you might see and hear wonderful things in many different parts of the country.
I perceived two difficult Wiesbadens. In one, if you walk through the cheaper part of the pedestrian zone in the evening, the city seems mostly Muslim. But if you walk around during the morning, the city seems mostly German. I might add that some of the younger Muslim women show signs of assimilating, at least based on how they dress and present themselves. The older women tend to stick with the headscarves.
Over the last twenty years, inflation-adjusted real estate prices in Wiesbaden have gone up about forty percent, an OK performance. At times the city “does not feel like Germany any more,” but I think it is holding on. The proportion of new building is roughly equal to the population growth, so I do not think this price effect is a NIMBY effect. Rather it reflects the fact that Wiesbaden is still a pretty nice place to live. that said, in some significant ways Germany in the traditional sense is failing to reproduce itself.
It was stunning to me to discover how hard it is, in most of the downtown, to find plain, ordinary German food. At any price level. There is no current equivalent of Wienerwald or Nordsee to be seen, never mind a decent Wiener Schnitzel.
Much of Wiesbaden was destroyed and rebuilt, but the best fifteen or twenty buildings show the previous wealth and splendor to good effect. You will see these gems walking around, though only periodically. There is also an old Roman wall and a moving, more recent Holocaust memorial.
Most German ice cream just isn’t that good, so try L’Art Sucre for something French.
Museum Reinhard Ernst is the new institution in town, and it specializes in color field abstract art. The building is impressive, but the collection is weak except for a few Stellas. Why organize a museum around that basis unless the underlying collection is super strong in that area? This one is not. I can forgive the absence of the expensive American Ellsworth Kelly, but no Blinky Palermo or Günther Förg?
Nonetheless their restrooms might forestall this kind of Larry David conflict:
(At Museum Ludwig in Köln, by the way, you get the discount for being disabled only if you have “fifty degrees of disability,” however they might measure that. Slight disabilities are not enough, you must be truly “schwerbehinderte,” as judged by the state, heaven forbid the museum rely on the honor system.)
Museum Wiesbaden in contrast was an unexpected delight. Although it is mainly a natural history museum, they have one of the world’s best collections of Art Nouveau and the single best Jawlensky collection, and you can have these all to yourself. Very few people seem to go there.
As for the economy, here are some Germany facts of the day. Yet Germany continues, and visits remain a source of pleasure and interest.
Sokolov, by the way, played six encores. Where should the Germany trip target next year?