Failure to Prepare is Endemic

LA Times: They were ready to roll whenever disaster struck California: three 200-bed mobile hospitals that could be deployed to the scene of a crisis on flatbed trucks and provide advanced medical care to the injured and sick within 72 hours.

Each hospital would be the size of a football field, with a surgery ward, intensive care unit and X-ray equipment. Medical response teams would also have access to a massive stockpile of emergency supplies: 50 million N95 respirators, 2,400 portable ventilators and kits to set up 21,000 additional patient beds wherever they were needed.

In 2006, citing the threat of avian flu, then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger announced the state would invest hundreds of millions of dollars in a powerful set of medical weapons to deploy in the case of large-scale emergencies and natural disasters such as earthquakes, fires and pandemics.

…But the ambitious effort, which would have been vital as the state confronts the new coronavirus today, hit a wall: a brutal recession, a free fall in state revenues — and in 2011, the administration of a fiscally minded Democratic governor, Jerry Brown, who came into office facing a $26-billion deficit.

And so, that year, the state cut off the money to store and maintain the stockpile of supplies and the mobile hospitals. The hospitals were defunded before they’d ever been used.

…Together, these two programs would have positioned California to more rapidly respond as its COVID-19 cases exploded. The annual savings for eliminating both programs? No more than $5.8 million per year, according to state budget records, a tiny fraction of the 2011 budget, which totaled $129 billion.

…Now, many California hospitals are being forced to ration their inadequate supply of N95 masks, and hospitals are rushing to rent ventilators in anticipation of a severe shortage as COVID-19 caseloads grow.

A useful reminder that failure to prepare for low probability but high cost events spans the political spectrum.

Comments

"A useful reminder that failure to prepare for low probability but high cost events spans the political spectrum."

Sorry, Alex this advice is nearly useless. Humans don't think that way. We'll no doubt beef up our infectious disease protection going forward, because we'll have had modern relevant experience with it after this virus is dealt with.

However, we'll have dozens of other low risk scenarios and we won't be able to fund many of them. Without a crystal ball, low risk events will always get little attention.

Remember this as the killer asteroid is approaching.

i would never forget. I keep this posted on my wall at work:

https://tinyurl.com/tyfvl5o

"Without a crystal ball, ..."

You rang?

But look how much money we spent on a high speed train to no where that no one wanted (well except the unions) and no one would be able to afford to ride on.

Solar storm knocking out the electric grid... is the next game changer.

That's assuming we will now adequately prepare for the next pandemic. Which is not a given.

Between solar storms, no doubt Chinese paramilitary colonists on the Sun will use it as a base to launch electro-magnetic pulse attacks on the West, and we will find ourselves unprepared for that as well.

There are millions of Americans alone who make a priority of being well-equipped to not only survive but thrive in the face of unexpected personal and familial hardship.

What you describe isn't human nature, it's the nature of the type of people who are attracted to profiting from our current occupying government and exploitative economic model. As they are physically incapable of learning the lessons Corona-chan is doling out one can only hope they get a personal visit from her.

No, it has nothing to do with evil corporations and evil governments. It has to do with human nature. How many people living in modern cities 90 days ago had the emergency 3 days worth of supplies that FEMA recommends you keep on hand at all times? How many in the suburbs?

Will that percentage be drastically different next year? 3 years from now? 10 years from now? I doubt it.

Your comparison of urbanites and suburbanites is precisely my point, my friend. People who choose to crowd themselves like rats into cities (or for that matter, those who choose to live unsustainably on the periphery) are not the people who are capable of recognizing and responding to these sorts of risks.

"Your comparison of urbanites and suburbanites is precisely my point, my friend. "

I wasn't comparing urbanites vs suburbanites. Neither group is particularly well prepared. The rural population is to a much larger degree. But that's a minority of the population.

"are not the people who are capable of recognizing and responding to these sorts of risks."

At that point you are probably talking about less than 20% of the population. Maybe much lower than that. (I'm probably in that group.) So, The considerations of a small minority are never going to hold very much weight.

Some people have organized lives, and plan ahead. Some don't. Ants and grasshoppers. Really hard to turn grasshopper into ants.

I suspect the half-life of behavior modification due to this event for ants may be a generation. For grasshoppers, it's probably weeks.

I'm reminded of rabbits grazing in a meadow. A hawk swoops down and grabs one. The rest scurry to the bushes, but they're back out five minutes later as if nothing happened. There's no time to worry about hawks when there's grass to eat.

Especially when all the rabbits know that that hawk won't be back until it is hungry again.

It may, it may not. Another one that is hungry may come along next.

This is why an r-strategist society, such as the one we have now, is doomed to fail. r-strategists are not able to identify existential threats, so to them these types of events are random and unrelated.

The mechanism of the spread of disease, especially in urban areas, is well-documented, yet the rabbits crowd themselves into cities. They hide from Corona-chan, but when the immediate danger is over they'll return to their old ways. No preparation, no prevention. Just a bunch of urbanites feasting on grass from the nearest raw vegan bistro.

This wouldn't be a problem except where r-strategists lead occupation governments such as the one in California, or Washington for that matter. They seek to introduce chaos into the order produced by R-strategists because they know it's the only way they have a chance at leveling the playing field.

There’s no conspiracy dude, just shitty incentives and applying the wrong discount rate.

It's not a conspiracy, my friend. It's all accomplished before a thought leaves the temporal lobes. It's nature.

It starts with a Z, and ends with a G - this is a safe space, you are certainly among many people who understand your meaning perfectly, hun.

Zoology-log?

Zapp Brannigan’s Leg?

Zanzibar’s national champion of the game of tag?

Nice projection, but this is the sort of brain defect that transcends ethnicity.

Then who are the 'occupiers'? Rats, as you seem to recently favor as a description for a certain class of people?

This is a safe space hun, no need to worry about triggering anyone.

Leftists, broadly (but not always). But specifically, people like you.

You must be a Taxi Driver fan then -“Someday, a real rain will come and wash all this scum off the streets.”

Who do you think Corona-chan is? Say hi for me.

And no interest. Covid19 is the virus that is currently crippling the world economy. Say hi for me.

It's not clear whether SL's pseudointellectual alt-right mental gestures are grounded in being unable to get over being a disappointment to daddy or being unable to get over being bullied in middle school, but either way it's surely not worth your effort to engage. One thing I am sure of is that anyone who spends as much time rambling on the MR comments section as he does is assuredly one of the rabbits he so deplores.

It's weird that you single out the vegans for especial scorn, since segregating the human world from the animal world is precisely what would prevent these kind of zoonotic pandemics in the first place. Even the seasonal flu would kill far fewer people.

Veganism is an unnatural vanity diet intended to sacrifice personal health for social status via virtue-signaling.

In the real world, where humans need to expend more than the minimal calories required to carry a reusable bag out of Whole Foods to maintain their sustenance, they eat meat and plants alike. Insisting otherwise is a pretension only maintained by a life resting unsustainably on the reliance of others to provide plentiful resources and few threats, i.e., an r-selected existence.

Turns out, you don't even have to worry that much about diseases, since humans have known which animals are unclean for millennia, going so far as to enshrine it in their religious beliefs.

(Or should I say, humans in the West, not clear about everyone else. Of course we aren't allowed to think such things due to another luxury of an r-selected society.)

You seem to be predicting the demise of rabbits.

Rabbits, among other r-selected species, survive because they produce many offspring with low parental investment. (It takes a village, or I suppose a warren, to raise a child, you know.)

All I can say is, thank you to the progressive, Whole Foods shoppin’ moms of Mass. and elsewhere who assured we would not be raised by a “Warren “.

Hence, the title of the post, Failure to Prepare is Endemic.

Somewhere a few weeks later, maybe the post title will be 'Failure to react is endemic,' trying to excuse why the Trump Administration didn't seem to notice the Indian pharmaceutical ban announced on March 4 until weeks later, as problems began inescapably growing in various parts of the U.S. in connection with the throroughly foreseeable spreading of a novel pandemic virus.

"Without a crystal ball, low risk events will always get little attention."

Because no pandemic has ever killed lots of people in the past. California is not affected by regular earthquakes and wildfires, right? Who could predict the unpredictable? hahaha

It's all a got'cha game.

Bring Out Your Dead.

It's not politics, it's r-selection. Cali has no trouble finding money (or borrowing it, to be precise) to fund social welfare for residents, non-residents, and everyone in between. Gotta live high on the hog and pretend death doesn't exist. That's the rabbit way.

An implicit rebuke of his co-poster's defensive "mixed" review of a certain executive?

>"... spans the political spectrum."

Yeah, right. It spans all the way over to "fiscally-minded" Dems.

Gotta love how they threw that in there. Any Republican who did this would be called incompetent, criminal, impeachable, etc. But a Dem who does it can safely be defended as "fiscally-minded."

Obama was reckless with trillion dollar deficit and unemployment soaring and an epidemic two months in office, and still bad with unemployment down under 5 with $400 billion deficit, but Trump was fantastic running the deficit back to a trillion with best economy EVER and lowest unemployment EVER.

Then when unemployment still officially at 3%, two massive spending bills in a month that will run the deficit to $3 trillion easily, written in the Senate under the control of McConnell who fought all spending by that black president, but can't spend enough for this white one.

Trump plus McConnell are more to the left of AOC on MMT than Bernie Sanders.

mulp, shilling for the LA Times

So that's like 10 apartments for the homeless then.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/10/08/los-angeles-la-california-homeless-shelter-housing-apartments-condos/3882484002/

Maybe you want apartments without transition services, so every time this comes up, you ignore that the transition services and facilities are built into that cost:

As for units costing almost $700,000, Cervantes said the price tag includes common areas and spaces aimed at helping the homeless make the transition to housing. As part of the transition, there will be help for residents to cope with addictions or mental illness. The median sales price of a home in Los Angeles County was $618,000 in June, tracker CoreLogic reports.

"We include the wrap-around services to address their needs and make them successful," Cervantes said.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/08/20/homeless-people-los-angeles-la-builds-pricey-koreatown-apartments/1984064001/

It's really BS to compare a transition facility to a naked apartment cost.

And think about the meta on this ... bad bad California ... trying to help with that.

It's always easy to help with someone else's money.

That's terminal libertarianism right there. The idea that no taxpayer has skin in the game.

Isn't California's public debt in the thirteen-figure range now? Skin indeed.

It's nothing compared to Trump's America.

(Status: cantankerous)

Actually, it's on Top of Trump's America. Californian's are responsible for both their share of the national debt and the Californian state debt.

Which is smaller than Trump's America. JWatts can't math.

An additional cost for "transition services" does not gainsay the already bloated cost of these units. What's more, vagrants generally cannot be legally compelled to use those "transition services" (those common areas are more likely to end up being used for illicit activities). So, yes, Progressive California is just wasting money virtue signaling while turning the place into an expensive sh*thole. It's the Great Society redux.

Not saying that taking care of the homeless is bad at all, it's just the waste of funds here while other things get unfunded.

Disturbing: "Prices rose dramatically because of higher-than-expected costs for items other than actual construction, such as consultants and financing. Those items comprise up to 40% of the cost of a project, the study found. By contrast, land acquisition costs averaged only 11% of the total costs." So $240k just for essentially kickbacks, same as the cost for an average house in the US.

Also, your article has a facility with transition costs, mine doesn't. You are comparing apples to oranges. The cost of transition seems to be $100k per unit, also seemingly bloated. The cost per unit, even without the transition costs, is higher than the average house in the same neighborhood. Priorities.

Judging policy by “seems like it has good intentions” is pretty lame. So far it looks like a giant kickback scheme to me, but in all fairness time will tell.

Let’s see how many homeless are permanently housed by this policy by 2025, and at what cost per housed homeless.

What would you define as success on those metrics?

California politicians routinely squander Billion$.

Trusting government politicans to act wisely & economically is a huge mistake.

Federal politicians are the most destructive force in America.

The CDC and FDA combined are 25,000 people strong. Their collective budget is $15B per year.

Since the last pandemic in 2009, those two orgs have delivered 250,000 man-years of work, and spent $150B dollars. With nothing to really show for it in terms of improvement over H1N1. They went a little faster, but not much.

Does anyone feel like they focused on the right things over the last 10 years?

But hey, we can be glad they have a clear position on bullying.

PS. N95 masks about $0.70 each in volume, if purchased in normal times.

And just to be clear, the CDC are against bullying. Make absolutely no mistake, they have studied this, and have clearly determined bullying is not good. And in case anyone thought bullying is good, they have hundreds of web pages and docs on the CDC web site about how bullying is bad.

Remember, the researchers at the CDC have determined that bullying makes people feel bad. Not just one researcher. Lots and lots of researchers. They have also given lots of grants to other researchers outside of the CDC and they, too, have determined that bullying is bad.

So, we might not have any masks. But you can be damn sure that we have a conclusive answer on whether not bullying is bad or not. And if you need materials, from coloring books to scholorly papers to help you convince the 95 year old uncle that was at Iwo Jima that bullying is bad, the CDC has those too.

Helpfully, they've also done the same type of studies for beating partners of all kinds. And the research there is conclusive too: Beating people that care for you is NOT good. They have lots and lots of research there too.

So much helpful stuff the CDC has worked on. I feel like the $150B we've spent there since H1N1 has been well spent.

Well, a couple of SARS-Cov vaccines were developed ready for human trials in 2016.

Tweeted for SARS-Cov2 they could soon be ready for human trials and vaccine production is no longer dependent on eggs.

And according to the 2019 HHS report:
Fighting the Flu
New presidential leadership on the influenza: Each year, seasonal influenza sickens millions of Americans, hospitalizes hundreds of thousands, and kills tens of thousands, while an influenza pandemic is widely acknowledged to be the single greatest potential health threat. In 2019, President Trump signed an executive order to modernize flu manufacturing and protect Americans from the flu, and HHS took a number of steps as part of this work.

Increasing advanced flu vaccine manufacturing capacity: ASPR issued a six-year, $226 million contract to retain and increase capacity to produce recombinant flu vaccine, a more modern and efficient form of flu vaccine manufacturing. When the project is completed, it will double the awardee’s recombinant protein-based flu vaccine manufacturing capacity in the United States.

Novel antivirals for flu infection: ASPR currently is supporting two novel antivirals for the treatment of hospitalized flu-infected patients, increasing America’s capacity to treat people who become infected and prepare for a future flu pandemic.

Supporting better flu diagnostics: Through BARDA, ASPR continued pursuing better diagnostics for the flu that are closer to the patient supporting the development of two in home diagnostic tests and six wearable biometric sensors to inform and empower individuals to take action early.

A new ventilator for vulnerable populations: ASPR supported the development of a portable ventilator capable of providing mechanical respiratory support for critical care of newborn babies, adults and elderly patients. The Philips ventilator was cleared by FDA earlier this year for use in institutional, home, and field settings by minimally trained operators and is now stockpiled in the Strategic National Stockpile for immediate distribution when needed.
https://www.hhs.gov/about/leadership/secretary/2019-annual-report/goal-2/index.html

The last point is interesting in that no one can find a single Philips ventilator.

With $600 billion in increased deficits, why no $30-40 million for ventilators purchases in 2019.

You think all the items you listed is worth 250,000 man-years of effort and $150B?

> With $600 billion in increased deficits, why no $30-40 million for ventilators purchases in 2019.

I dunno, why not $2B in masks purchased spread over the last 10 years? Why not ventilators purchases spread over the last 10 years?

Since H1N1 in 2010 the failure of gov in terms of fighting pandemic has sucked. Missteps at every point a decision had to be made. South Korea has an annual budget that is nearly 1/10th that of the US.

They did far more with far less. This isn't Trump versus Obama. This is admitting the most well funded medical org in the world delivered a horrid value for the monies they received. They should not expect more money: We should slash their budget 50%, tell them to focus on what is important, and expect the next pandemic response to be #1 in the world.

+1

It’ll never happen. Apparently Taiwan can spend $200 million a year on their CDC and successfully prevent pandemics.

We spend $12 billion a year and our CDC threatens doctors for testing, sends cease and desist letters to any hospital developing their own test based on previous Corona virus RNA tests, botches their own test as a single point of failure, advises the government to keep direct flights from Wuhan to the US, threatens a company for developing mobile PPE decontamination units for hospitals....

And potentially most importantly telling Americans masks and respirators don’t prevent infection.

Oh well. Wear your N95 if you go out...

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak

"And potentially most importantly telling Americans masks and respirators don’t prevent infection."

No, the CDC has modified their position. They can't just come out and say the obvious facts point to us being wrong of course. So, they've started hedging their bets.

"The CDC is said to be considering asking people to cover their face in public — but would reserve masks for medical workers"

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-cdc-may-urge-face-covers-leave-masks-for-medics-2020-3

Scott Alexander's cost disease meets bureaucratic bloating?

CDC: "Communicable diseases boring. The only way to keep our funding is start fighting sexual violence."

Correct. You forgot to mention gun control. Progressives have been hysterical over the fact that for a long period (until last year) the CDC was not allowed to waste taxpayers' money funding studies that advocate gun control (which they will advocate implicitly no matter what the law says). The $25 million of federal money appropriated for gun control studies could have paid for 4 years of maintaining those stockpiles and mobile hospitals in Speaker Pelosi's home state of California.

>With nothing to really show for it in terms of improvement over [the last crisis]

The Fed is making the CDC look good. We're starting our 2nd $1T+ bailout of the financial system bailout in the last 12 months.

Horrifyingly, the first bailout was back in December, which means Dodd Frank couldn't even handle 'non-crisis' issues.

Please preserve the meaning of biology words like "endemic" for the crisis response and stick to politics words like "bipartisan" for politics.

When instead of preparing for a spreading pandemic, a leader says something like this just 3 weeks ago, in reference to the coronavirus, “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”

There is long, middle, and short lacks in preparation, but dismissing any attempts at preparation a month ago as a hoax or fearmongering is quite exceptional after seeing the effects of a growing covid19 pandemic. Especially considering that even on Feb. 5, HHS was asking for 2 billion dollars to enhance America's preparedness, and only getting 500 million.

This is not the same as a flawed response, as the one seen in the UK. Instead, it was a response guided by a president talking about miracles. Or even, just a short week ago, a desire to see full churches on Easter.

> it was a response guided by a president talking about miracles

If the president had done nothing, you might have a point. But he declared health emergencies far before other countries, closed borders long before anyone thought sane and appropriated billion of $ while he was telling everyone to stay calm.

"Hope for the best, plan for the worst" is reasonable.

On the other hand, our media and the democrats said none of Trump's actions were needed at all. They didn't plan, they didn't spend, and they hoped for the best.

Biden was against travel bans as of two weeks ago.

See the difference?

Oddly, he did not close the border to China faster than Italy and he did not declare a health emergency before Italy.

See the difference? You will, in a few weeks, on a per capita basis to make it plain. As of today, Italy, with about 1/5 fifth of the population of the U.S., has a total of 11,591 dead. Birx has said, assuming the U.S. does everything just about as well as conceivably possible, that a number as low as 100,000 - 200,000 dead is possible.

Viruses care nothing about what anyone sees as a difference.

I wonder, when this is done, how many years of expected life will be lost to this pandemic. Most of the victims are older or people with comorbidities. Many people who would have died over the next ten years will die in a couple of months. The total years of life lost is unlikely to be as severe as the Spanish Flu.

The human loses will be tragic. I have a good chance to be amongst the dead. I'm not happy about it.

But in terms of getting the economy back in full swing, will this be that severe a setback?

This point is quite reasonable - "Many people who would have died over the next ten years will die in a couple of months." And luckily for NYC, it has two ice rinks downtown available to handle that flood of bodies, along with previous experience in handling a mass casualty event. With the caveat that it was a one time event, not a day after day grind of hauling away bodies.

> Oddly, he did not close the border to China faster than Italy and he did not declare a health emergency before Italy.

Wrong. Trump and Italy closed borders on same day, though Italy's was more restrictive.

However, the entire world, including the WHO, pushed back against Trump. VOX called it stupid and unneeded. And two weeks later, when Trump closed borders with EU, Biden called in unnecessary.

Still, the day after Italy closed their borders, they held a "hug a chinese day" where their citizens were encouraged to hug a blindfolded chinese person scattered throughout the city.

There is not a democrat out there that would have did what Trump did in late January. We know that because they all said he was racist for closing the borders.

There is no denying that Trump was in the top 1% of world leaders in terms of responsiveness, and no denying that not a single dem would have done what the did in January.

I think both sides are overdoing it by trumpeting their own successes while the other side relentlessly attacks missed opportunities and clear mistakes. The truth is usually somewhere in the middle.

The travel ban was needed but insufficient as a policy response. Undoubtedly Trump found it easy to do that since it fits with his priors and his political vision. Likewise with China bashing.

However, his weakness to dismiss any chance of domestic spread and downplaying the potential severity of a worst case outcome is testament to his short term thinking which has repeatedly been on display over his first term.

The overarching theme is that the administration tends to treat all problems as PR problems to be glossed over and doesn't like to spend time and energy doing the heavy lifting that is real problem solving.

> However, his weakness to dismiss any chance of domestic spread and downplaying the potential severity of a worst case outcome is testament to his short term thinking which has repeatedly been on display over his first term.

Ignore his words. He was trying to staunch panic. Look at Trump's actions. They were unprecedented--far more aggressive than H1N1 response. Remember, as as Jan 15, the WHO was telling everyone this could not be spread human to human. China was hosting a massive weeklong potluck in Wuhan beginning Jan 18. Does that sound like a country that is scared?

Then, we see a case in US on Jan 20th and on Jan 23 China institutes a quarantine, but not before everyone learns of quarantine and 5M leave the city.

On Jan 31, Trump restricts travel and declares health emergency. Every dem leader said that wasn't needed.

Do you think there's a dem leader that would have acted more aggressively? Certaintly not Cuomo, whose state placed their first order for hand sanitizer on March 6, and then lost that order because they failed to process the PO in a timely fashion.

Not a single question on the virus at the dem debate on Feb 19.

Certaintly not any of the other govs that advocated attending big lunar new year bash's to show coronavirus you aren't scared! Pelosi told everyone to come to Chinatown on Feb 24 and have fun!

March 5 De Blasion tells everyone to keep using the subway. The next day, NYC places its first order for supplies.

On March 12, Trump slammed the doors shut on the EU. Again, the dems all said that wasn't needed. At that time, Trump also declared a national emergency.

On March 15, the 15,000 test is administered. On 25-March, the 100,000 test is administered.

On 16-March, NYC closes schools.

WA state Jay Inslee did a good job, but the tech companies beat him by a full week. If the tech companies hadn't closed down Inslee would not have closed down when he did.

Fact is, Trump's move were way ahead of everyone else's and widely criticized as not needed.

People, the private sector or the public, respond to incentives. Politicians saw little to gain from spending money on pandemic protection. (Although you would think California would invest to protect against other natural disasters.).

It doesn't help that the private sector is attacked for profiteering. (Look at political attacks on pharmaceutical companies.). Or the public sector is often an inefficient way to provide social benefits (Look at Democrats trying to push multiple agendas during the current crisis.)

Is this a shock when most states can't even properly fund their pensions?

The one lesson states will learn is that any money spent on preparation is money wasted. When you neglect for years there is no price to pay and, in fact, big daddy fed will always bail you out.

Same will be true for pensions. Spend forever and then let the Fed pick up the tab.

It's not just the Fed that will bail you out; the bigger problem is that voters will!

As Tyler pointed out in an earlier post about how this disaster could actually boost Trump's poll numbers, the research shows that declaring an emergency gives a president a boost. It doesn't seem to matter to voters whether they had the foresight to be prepared for the disaster.

And now it seems that just having a press conference where you just kind of wing it and make stuff up and brag about your viewership relative to the season finale of the Bachelor is all you have to do to put an electoral band aid on your lack of preparedness.

And this isn't just a dig on Trump. Look at the numbers for Cuomo in NY. Look at tons of politicians in the past.

Yeah it's amazing that Cuomo is getting so many undeserved accolades when his response has been worse than Newsom's, and that's a low bar to clear.

Serious question: Which politicians do you think did a good job?

Fascist leader Mr. Cochran has banned me from his blog. I think it is atrocious. Freedom is indivisible. I think we should lower his status.

I think his behaviour is distraceful.

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/coronavirus/article241623586.html

Coronavirus cases in the central San Joaquin Valley Fresno County and surrounding Valley counties continued to climb Monday — as health officials in Fresno, Tulare, Merced and Madera counties collectively reported 23 new patients with confirmed positive tests for the contagion.

In its first update since Saturday, Fresno County Interim Health Officer Dr. Rais Vohra said 10 new cases cropped up by Monday afternoon, increasing Fresno County’s total to 53.
----
A farm valley. Note the name, we were Hispanic before Jackson was president. It has 3 million, people, 130 cases increasing by 10% per day. So this is phase two for us. We should be monitoring the homeless, they are likely carriers and a canary in the coal mine. When a significant number of homeless have it, then it is endemic, phase three is the start of antibody/virus balancing act. At that point the 'spreading bandwidth' becomes shared, with antbodies getting some 90% of that channel, antibodies ruling, virus the guerrilla army. The sharing of fixed channel bandwidth is how it happens in self sampling systems, systems. They find the trunk and make it round as they can.

It's an insurance question as well.

Business interruption insurance could include coverage for national or state declared pandemics. We won't need to bail out companies if we require them to carry this insurance, or condition them having this insurance before the state gives a minimal but significant copay.

That leaves more room for public health reserves if you do not have to cover business expenses.

You might even get insurance companies behind public health because it reduces their risks.

Prediction based upon real world “natural experiments” in finance, real estate, insurance, housing in flood zones, public pension systems...

The government will bail out anyways. Always.

Show me the public choice game theory where President or Governor X refuses to bail out a large constituency. And explain how it’s different from Illinois and its impending junk bond status.

Related to California's (lack of) preparedness, see the SF Chronicle front-page headline on Sunday:

Coronavirus: The state had 21 million N95 masks stockpiled. All are expired.

"Every one of the masks stored in the state’s climate-controlled warehouse in a secret location has surpassed its wear-by date. A California Department of Public Health news release this month indicated that only “some” masks are expired, but after repeated inquiries from The Chronicle, the agency acknowledged that the whole supply is outdated."

Interesting that N95 masks have a shelf-life of only 5 years, the breakdown mostly occurring in the elastic band. This means means the government should be buying roughly 20% of its stockpile every year just to keep current. Unlike a social network for dogs or some other Silicon Valley hype, here's a multi-billion dollar idea that will have global impact---invent a longer lasting mask/respirator. A mask that lasts 15 years should help for that once a decade epidemic and smooth over stockpile turnover on a public that often forgets about disaster preparation.

There's a difference between failing to prepare against a hypothetical threat decades a way and one that experts are telling you is coming in the next two months. Obviously.

Really, you fearmongerers just hated all the young people enjoying their spring break.

It's clearly not a failure to plan. The plan is to get bailed out.

That's the plan and it worked perfectly.

https://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2020/03/pressure-china-reveals-1541-symptom-free-virus-cases/

China said that it’s put 1,541 people infected with the novel coronavirus but who don’t have symptoms under observation as of March 30, a much-anticipated announcement which helps provide a deeper picture of the scale of the country’s epidemic.

It was unclear from the statement if that number was only of people currently in medical quarantine or if it included those who were symptom-free but have since recovered and been released. Of the cases, 205 were found among people entering China from overseas, according to a statement on China’s National Health Commission website.

China’s total count of confirmed Covid-19 infections stands at more than 81,000, but the vast majority have recovered and been released. The country still has 2,161 cases in hospital as of March 30, according to health commission data.
---
Stats still unreliable, watch NYC to get some worse case stats that are accurate.

ut the CHinese bean counters mean to imply that 80,000 of the most likely spreaders now have antibody protection. They go back to their cluster and absorb much of the spread, harmlessly. This is antibody taking over the finite spread bandwidth from the virus.

Watch phase three in NYC, look for significant mixing of antibody and virus. The equilibrium still looks good.

Total deaths are down, hospitals have a surplus inventory of the wrong thing and a shortage of the right thing. But overall, their caseload is way down as death rates drop dramatically in the shutdown.

In abstract tree theory this means the hospital value chain is making a noticeable reorganization, non-adiabatic. A sudden, obvious bulge in the tree trunk appeared, and the tree trunk boss cannot adjust it soon enough. But overall, hospitals are doing fine.

Failure or not to prepare at the medical services level with affect only thousands. If this were the Spanish flu, no amount of money spent or preparing medical services would have been enough. Rather, preparing society to change behavior, such as social distancing, could save millions of lives. Perhaps funding, if any should be focused towards this instead.

https://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2020/03/french-hydroxychloroquine-study-bad/

I was scratching my head as I read this. By this description, these patients mostly had mild disease. Only 15% had fever? Fever is a prominent feature of symptomatic adults with COVID-19. Only 53% had lower respiratory tract infection symptoms? Four of the patients (5%) were asymptomatic? 92% had low COVID-19 severity scores as measured by the National Early Warning Score (NEWS)? Why were they even admitted in the first place, rather than instructed to isolate themselves in their homes? That’s what’s generally done; asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-positive patients and patients with mild COVID-19 symptoms are generally just told to stay home for at least two weeks and call if their symptoms worsen. Later in the paper, we learn that only 15% of these patients required oxygen, while only three required ICU admission, with one death
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The problem in this on story, we have been trained to go to clinic and ignore home medicine. Lack of home triage results in emergency room congestion and the value chain is foul. One of the first results from the new theory of value chains as a network congestion problem.

This is just a tiny microcosm of the way that the 2009 "stimulus" bill was mis-designed (and it looks like the 2020 version is similar). Far too little went to S&LG to offset the effects of recession on revenues and spending needs. Employment in S&LG fell just as if they were private firms suffering a recession-induced fall in demand. It was, and I'm guessing is again, crazy.

the postmodern monetary theorists sure our quiet
where did they all disappear to

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