The danger of Trump disobeying court orders

Ilya Somin covers this question over at Volokh Conspiracy.  I receive many queries about this, some of them panicky and anguished.  I haven’t covered it, mostly because I don’t feel I have enough insights into the relevant matters of constitutional law, or for that matter what is going on inside the administration (for instance, how should one interpret those Vance tweets?)

I can tell you what I would find useful.  If you are especially pessimistic on this front, which are the securities prices that would indicate an actual constitutional problem?  Particular equities?  Interest rates?  The value of the dollar?  Measures of volatility?  Something else?  Don’t restrict yourself to the absolute level of share prices, surely there are favored and disfavored companies and sectors, right?

I am allergic to the view that “fascism could come and market prices would not even budge.”  In fact, I think it is extremely skeptical and subversive of democracy, or shall I better say a constitutional republic.  I think fascism, or a constitutional collapse, would be a terrible outcome in a variety of very practical ways, in addition to its moral failings.  At the very least it would matter for many particular enterprises.

In a variety of other contexts, such as tariffs, market prices have been super-sensitive to the actions of the Trump administration.  So people, on this question, which exactly are the measurable, market price indicators?  After all, you don’t want to be like those doomster AI skeptics who think no one can trade on the (supposed) truth.

In the comments section, I am not interested in your blah blah blah opinion full of adjectives.  Just tell me which prices please.  I do see this issue as constituting a real risk, if perhaps a sometimes exaggerated one.  So I will follow those market prices with great interest.  I just need to know what they are.

Addendum: In an excellent Substack today Matt Yglesias notes: “Republicans, meanwhile, are making very little forward progress on their legislative agenda.”