The Friedman-Savage Utility Function
The Friedman-Savage piece starts with an obvious puzzle: why do people both buy lottery tickets and insurance against losses? That would seem to make them both risk-loving and risk-averse at the same time. The proffered answer is simple: part of the utility function is concave, and part is convex. Across the lower range we wish to play it safe, but above a certain margina we are willing to take gambles (by the way, here is some evidence, and why it might follow from market constraints).
For years this approach rubbed the "foundationalist Tyler" the wrong way. "Surely there is a more general approach which will allow us to derive both behaviors from a few axioms concerning risk and utility. We can’t just postulate arbitrary shifts in the curve across the utility space. Maybe both parts of the curve follow from the "temporal resolution of uncertainty," that missing variable from so much of expected utility theory. The Friedman-Savage approach will someday be seen as a diversion from the path which led to truth."
Many articles explored these routes, most notably Mark Machina’s 1982 piece on generalized expected utility theory. None of them caught on. A subsequent dose of empirical and experimental work indicated that behavior toward risk is strongly context-dependent. Neuroeconomics implied that different decisions in fact may stem from different parts of our brain, thereby challenging the assumption of a unified agent. Probably there is no overarching approach to all of the so-called violations of expected utility theory. People simply behave differently toward risk in different situations.
In other words, Friedman and Savage were ahead of their time. This is no accident, but rather it stems from Milton’s wise pragmatism, and from his general lack of interest in foundations. He also never explained "why people hold money," or "what money really is," yet he charged ahead with monetary theory and indeed monetary policy. The monetary foundationalists have been just as unsuccessful as the utility foundationalists.
Markets in everything
Wuhan, my hometown in Central China, plans to sell the right to name streets, bridges, public plazas and high-rise buildings to businesses in exchange for money the municipal government desperately needs to make up for a "funding shortage in government operations."
Here is the story, and thanks to Petras Kudaras for the pointer.
Robert Tagorda sends along a story of governments doing the buying rather than the selling:
State leaders have tried for years to get more minority and low-income high school students to take tougher classes. One group Thursday proposed an eye-opening idea: Pay students to take the classes. The Minnesota Private College Council called on the state to spend $50 million a year to pay eligible high school students who take and pass college-prep classes.
Alex once blogged on Roland Fryer, and paying students to get better grades.
Assorted
1. Criticisms of the "dark matter" hypothesis, as applied to the U.S. trade balance.
2. A new blog from The New York Times, based on general news.
3. A new on-line publication from AEI, including a piece on the economics of football. Here is a piece on UC Berkeley behavioral economist Ulrike Malmandier.
Which posts attract the most comments?
Some posts attract many more comments than others. Holding constant the general level of readership, I believe the following features predict higher numbers of comments:
1) If a post sits at the top of a page for a long time
2) If the post invokes a sense of moral outrage
3) If many readers feel they can bring facts or personal experience to bear on the question
4) If the post simply asks for comments or feedback
What do you all think?
Robin Hanson is blogging
Sort of, check out Overcomingbias.com, an on-line forum with posts on how to enhance our orientation toward truth-seeking. Contributors include Robin and also Nick Bostrom, my favorite young philosopher.
This is a noble endeavor. Virtually everyone thinks that the thought processes of others are laden with fallacies and bias. Yet most of us — once you get past the obligatory lip service to self-doubt — believe that our epistemic procedures are relatively immune from such problems. That can’t be right.
That said, I do not go as far as Robin in my desire to preach truth-seeking. With all due respect to the truth, I find something Quixotic in such a quest. I view Robin as believing in a kind of Archimedean point, from which we could be objective truth-seekers if only we had the will. My view is closer to that of Pascal. Yes we should seek self-improvement, but we are weak and in the dark no matter what. An excessive attachment to "truth-seeking," might even divert us from the pragmatic, skeptical pluralism — laden with a healthy dose of ego to get the work done — most likely to lead society closer to truth.
Becker and Posner on Milton Friedman
Here.
I’d like to try this idea in Elizabeth, New Jersey
How about cities without any traffic signs or lights?:
European traffic planners are dreaming of streets free of rules and
directives. They want drivers and pedestrians to interact in a free and
humane way, as brethren — by means of friendly gestures, nods of the
head and eye contact, without the harassment of prohibitions,
restrictions and warning signs…Ejby, in Denmark, is participating in the experiment, as are Ipswich in England and the Belgian town of Ostende.
The logic?
It may sound like chaos, but it’s only the lesson drawn from one of the
insights of traffic psychology: Drivers will force the accelerator down
ruthlessly only in situations where everything has been fully
regulated. Where the situation is unclear, they’re forced to drive more
carefully and cautiously.
Some towns are even looking to abolish the distinction between roads and sidewalks. Here is the full story, can any of you report on these experiments? And if you are looking for your "Germany fact of the day," the country has 648 different and valid traffic signs.
Thanks to John Durant for the pointer. And here is Dan Klein on skating rinks.
The Origins of Friedman and Schwartz, *A Monetary History*
This paper explores some of the scholarship that influenced Milton
Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz’s "A Monetary History". It shows that the
ideas of several Chicago economists — Henry Schultz, Henry Simons,
Lloyd Mints, and Jacob Viner — left clear marks. It argues, however,
that the most important influence may have been Wesley Clair Mitchell
and his classic book "Business Cycles" (1913). Mitchell, and the NBER,
provided the methodology for "A Monetary History", in particular the
emphasis on compiling long time series of monthly data and analyzing
the effects of specific variables on the business cycle. A common
methodology and the stability of monetary relationships produced
similar conclusions about money. Friedman and Schwartz deemphasized
Mitchell’s "bank-centric" view of the monetary transmission process,
but they reinforced Mitchell’s conclusion that money had an
independent, predictable, and important influence on the business cycle.
Here is the link, here is a non-gated version.
Why do people live in cities?
Someone I was talking to — no I can’t tell you who — claims that the answer is to enjoy casual or anonymous sex.
Now this is not my field of expertise. The claim was that picking people up in the suburbs, and driving to one of the homes for sex, is difficult. MapQuest is not immediately handy for good directions, there are two cars in play, at least one of the persons may be drunk, and there is a trust issue of being trapped in some weird suburban cul-de-sac, surrounded only by sleeping, catatonic soccer moms with no one to hear you scream for help, etc.
In a city, on the other hand, there is walking and the metro or subway. An emergency exit is easier, and cars need not come into play at all.
I have never lived in an American city, only Freiburg, Germany and Wellington, New Zealand.
Noble readers, is this true? Do be analytical, facts are fine but I am not interested in risque comments per se.
What I’ve been reading
1. Permissions, A Survival Guide: Blunt Talk About Art as Intellectual Property, by Susan Bielstein. Yet another treatment of how copyright has gone too far, this book is full of both information and good humor.
2. Jonathan Tokeley, Rescuing the Past: The Cultural Heritage Crusade. A pro-property rights, pro-market (but with regulation) approach to the antiquities trade. A breath of fresh air in an otherwise poorly framed debate.
3. Adam Tooze, The Wages of Destruction: The Making and Breaking of the Nazi Economy; I blogged this before, but now I am reading it, this book is a major achievement. Here is an interview with Tooze. Here is more, and here.
4. The Crying of Lot 49, by Thomas Pynchon. This is also for my Law and Literature class next spring; from Pynchon, I enjoy this book and the first half of Gravity’s Rainbow. You don’t have to love 1960s left-wing semiotics for this one, although it doesn’t hurt. Over Christmas I might try Pynchon’s V., and for that matter Civilization IV.
5. Lots of opinions about intro economics, from CrookedTimber.
Famous scientists predict the future
Here is the link. The pointer is from Chris Masse.
Elsewhere, from my Indiana hotel I found Dwight Lee on whether money can buy happiness, and Brad DeLong on Milton Friedman. Jane Galt won’t go see Borat, I prefer the skits, most of all Bruno talking to the pastor. And here is an NYT article about a free market think tank in Kenya.
Milton Friedman, a father of financial futures
Leo Melamed writes:
I asked him [Friedman] whether he would endorse–when Bretton Woods collapsed–the concept of futures contracts in foreign exchange. Without hesitation, Dr. Milton Friedman embraced the concept and authored a study in December 1971 which became the intellectual foundation for the birth of currency futures. It was not a major treatise, hundreds of pages long with footnotes and a bibliography. The world-renowned economist stated all he needed to say in just 11 pages. His paper, entitled "The Need for Futures Markets in Currencies," provided us with academic authenticity of the highest magnitude to prove that our theory was a viable necessity. As I often stated, "Professor Friedman gave my idea the credibility without which the concept might never have become a reality." For with Dr. Friedman’s paper in hand, I was able to convince government officials, bank presidents and the CME brokerage community that the idea had merit.
This is an excellent illustration of Alex’s point that Milton was an entrepreneurial economist. Here is more.
Milton had been right all along that flexible exchange rates were entirely workable. He was wrong in underestimating their volatility through periodic, and possibly inexplicable, "long swings" in the levels. Oddly, his mistake on this point probably enabled currency futures and options to be even more successful than he had expected.
Addendum: Here is Greg Mankiw on Milton, here is Arnold Kling. Here is a link fest at PrestoPundit. Here is a misleading piece on Milton as friend of big government; just ask Roger Douglass, Vaclav Havel, or many others.
Should we abolish the penny?
The Methodology of Positive Economics
I’ve never read Milton as a naive positivist, although some of the quotations from his article sound that way. Milton was more of a methodological pluralist and a Marshallian. Do what works.
Bring a variety of kinds of evidence to bear on a problem (it is sad
how neglected this principle is in modern economics), be pragmatic, and
don’t reject a model just because it doesn’t meet one of your
prejudices. I think that is what he meant by not judging a model by
its assumptions. Falsifiability is a chimera, but did Friedman really
seek or advocate that as a standard? Most of all he wanted propositions with empirical content. He understood that no single fact can refute a theory, and that many tests are of frameworks, not single propositions. Data should and indeed must be viewed through the lens of theory, and our goal should be to solve problems.
Was Milton closer to Quine than to Carnap? Here is his classic essay.
My favorite things Indiana
A brief trip it will be, but here goes:
1. Music: Michael Jackson is from Gary, and his most underrated song is "She’s Out of My Life." There is also Cole Porter (overrated in my view, compared to Jerome Kern) and Ned Rorem. Wes Montgomery has a few good albums, usually they are live; it is a shame he wasted his immense talent on muzak.
2. Literature: Sorry, but I find Kurt Vonnegut unreadable, and don’t tell me about Harrison Oberon. Dreiser? I’ve never read Newton Tarkington, who wrote The Magnificent Ambersons. I’ll go with Philip Jose Farmer and his Riverworld series.
3. Painter: I am only slightly fond of Robert Indiana (yes he is from the state), or for that matter William Merritt Chase; here is my favorite Chase painting.
4. Favorite small town: Alex recommends Columbus, Indiana, for wonderful architecture. I defer to him.
5. Movie, set in: Hoosiers and Breaking Away do not sit well with me, so help me out if you can.
6. Blogger and libertarian crusader for civil liberties: Radley Balko.
The bottom line: I don’t even like James Dean. Radley is great, but my favorite thing Indiana is in fact Liberty Fund.