Category: Uncategorized

What predicts when an Olympic record will fall?

by  Tyler Cowen in

It turns out that if the current holder also set the record in the past, the record is more likely to be broken at the next games.

If the current Olympic record is also the world record, it is less likely to be broken in the next games.

A change in the number of countries competing in an event  is also an important indicator of whether the record will fall.

And most surprising of all, the percentage by which the existing record improved on the first Olympic record, is also a significant indicator.

There is more here, and the original paper is here.  For the pointer I thank Michelle Dawson.

Twenty questions?

by  Tyler Cowen in

Or forty questions, as the case may be.  One of my favorite methods of giving a talk is to have the audience write out questions in advance, and then during the talk I have to try to answer them (without peeking at them beforehand).  The goal is not only to address the queries, but also to weave the answers together into the form of a broader talk with underlying themes.

I did this recently, and I thought the best question was something like this:

“If you were designing a ten question True-False test to fool the American public and induce the greatest number of wrong answers, which questions should go on the test?  Which question would people get wrong the most often?  How many questions of the ten would the American public get right on average?”

I also was asked which of my habitual errors I would most want to change, looking forward in life.

I was asked about Jeremy Lin, and whether he or LeBron James did more to maximize global wealth.  I suggested that Lin did more to maximize utility, as his fame in Asia did not much detract from the fame of any other NBA player, but that LeBron did more to maximize wealth, in part through endorsement income.

Another good question was “How far do you think real interest rates will fall into negative territory?”, or something like that.

Has India solved the problem of banking regulation?

by  Tyler Cowen

Forget Glass-Steagall:

The branches are run almost entirely by and for the children, with account holders electing two volunteer managers from the group every six months.

“Children who make money by begging or selling drugs are not allowed to open an account. This bank is only for children who believe in hard work,” said Karan, a 14-year-old “manager”.

During the day, Karan earns a pittance washing up at wedding banquets or other events. In the evening, he sits at his desk to collect money from his friends, update their pass books and close the bank.

“Some account holders want to withdraw their money. I ask them why and give it to them if other children approve. Everyone earns five per cent interest on their savings.”

This system now has over two hundred branches in half a dozen countries.  The article is here, hat tip goes to Kottke.  If I understand the account correctly, it is also run largely by street children.

Manila notes

by  Tyler Cowen

How the mothers talk to, smile at, and elevate their small children reminds me uncannily of Mexico.  It was actually Mexico, not Spain, that ruled the Philippines for centuries.  You can tell how bad the traffic or the flooding is by the clucking sounds made by the taxi drivers.  There is a lot of boxing on TV, and you will regularly be surprised by which food items turn out to taste the best.  Don’t rule out the baked goods or the chicken minestrone soup.

This is a surrealistic dream country, combining fractured elements of an earlier global economy in strange and unpredictable ways.  If you’re not paying attention you can think you are somewhere else — Acapulco?  Lima?  Los Angeles? but in which years? — and yet you are regularly pulled back to the Filipino reality, if only by seeing the Chinese dragons perched in front of the Spanish colonial church.  “My Favorite Things Filipino” would all be moments of disorientation.  The traditional exotic spots now seem pseudo-exotic to me, at least compared to Manila, which forces you to rethink everywhere else you have visited.

Someone should write a New Yorker article about how Filipinos use music in public spaces.  The mango is superb, even by the standards of tropical countries.  If I lived here, I would learn how to talk with my eyebrows.  They don’t like to criticize each other.  Martha Stewart is brought up and discussed by high status Filipinos without irony.

The ability to appreciate the Philippines is a Turing test of some sort, but I am not yet sure for what.

Dennis Rodman on the Philippines

by  Tyler Cowen

Apparently, aging former NBA stars do some barnstorming here, as my taxi driver from the airport told me almost immediately upon my arrival in Manila.  From an excellent Grantland article on the topic, no love of sports required, here is one excerpt:

Before tip-off, a sideline reporter snags a short interview with Pippen. “Scottie, what have you heard of the Philippine league?” she asks. “Well, I haven’t heard too much about it.” The moment was a flashback to the unintentional comedy bonanza at the press conference the day before the game, where Pippen & Co. strained to find polite answers to questions like “Besides the Philippines, what other countries have you guys been to?” and “I’m not a press but how is it when you arrive here, how do you feel that you are playing in this country where basketball is one of the popular sports?” Rodman, predictably, punctured the air of false ceremony when he was asked how he found the Philippines on this, his second trip to the country. “The same [as] when I left it,” he said. “You guys still look the same, so what the hell.”

In contrast, I have been here only once.

Assorted links

by  Tyler Cowen

1. From Washington Monthly: monetary policy, gargoyles, and the emotions.  I say focus ruthlessly on substance and do your best to explore and present the limits and drawbacks of your own ideas and recommendations.  Years down the road — or sooner — one will end up wiser and better informed.  The reasoning in this article is an excuse to dismiss moderating or inconvenient ideas, or ideas which de-moralize a topic somewhat.

2. Wage stagnation isn’t due to a compositional shift.

3. Old Germans who die and leave their estates to Israel.

4. There is no great swimsuit stagnation.

5. Why are New Yorkers reviving taxidermy?

Beijing notes

by  Tyler Cowen in

It is a gargantuan, imperial city, and while there is always a walking path the point of walking is not always clear.  “The Middle Kingdom does Dubai.”  There is no need to tell me about all the parts of the city which do not look like Dubai, I have seen many of them, and furthermore Dubai has such parts as well.

An iPad, plus Baidu access to Chinese characters, makes it easy to ask questions of strangers.  Hardly anyone speaks even minimal English.  It is less harried than I had expected.  The sky rarely appears, at least in late July.  The contemporary art district, 798, is worth more than one visit.  I am not interested in seeing the Great Wall.  My hotel, rather than having a “Medical Devices” conference, has a meeting on “Australian Property Holdings.”

The main problems here are the air pollution, and that no one, including taxi drivers, seems to know how to get anywhere.  The rate of change is high and many people are from the provinces, so there is a real information gap.

The main upsides stem from what scale enables.  Even if you have been to many places, Beijing will manage to astonish you.

Most of all, I am struck by how Taiwan is more Chinese than is China.