New issue of Econ Journal Watch
Find it here, I have yet to read this one but recommended as always. Here is blogger John Quiggin saying "who cares what you think?", the perennial question for us all.
Inner Economist podcast
By me (who else?), interviewed by the ever-acute Russ Roberts (who else?), get it here.
Among other things, I let on which is my favorite art museum and why, and what is wrong with the National Gallery of Art. And how I have rediscovered my Austrian subjectivist roots. And which remark in the book I meant as a joke, but everyone took seriously.
Get the book here.
The future of macroeconomics
Several months ago I noted that a virtual world, Eve Online, had hired a real economist. Here is his first report. What makes virtual worlds important for economics is that for the first time ever, macro-economists will be able to do experiments. I predict that we will see some very interesting experiments in the near future. In the meantime here is an interesting bit from the report – the laws of supply of demand work in many worlds.
EVE consists of more than 5000 solar systems in 64 regions. The solar
systems are connected in a complex web allowing for goods to be moved
from one end in the Universe to another. Pilots have to be careful
because in low sec and zero-zero security zones there is always the
danger of being attacked by gangs of pirates looking for easy prey….EVE is so large it is difficult for anyone to grasp what is going on
in all the regions at any given time. Yet the markets seem to be very
efficient at distributing information resulting in symmetric prices
throughout Empire space (and even further). This is clearly visible in
figure 11 which shows the price for zydrine in three different Empire
regions.Examining these time series in more detail reveals the price
difference between regions is declining over time and price
fluctuations within regions are also decreasing. This can be seen as
evidence for increased efficiency in arbitrage trading over time
resulting in symmetric prices and an overall more efficient market.
Thanks to Ambrose for the pointer.
Addendum: Be sure to check the comments for insightful details from Mike K., solarjetman and others.
Cool It, by Bjorn Lomborg
That’s Bjorn Lomborg’s latest book on global warming. He has good arguments against the exaggerations of others, so this book is worth reading. I cannot, however, agree with one of his central claims, namely that the most serious economic research favors only mild remedies or sees the problem as only a moderate one.
I would instead claim the following:
1. Policy recommendations are extremely sensitive to the choice of discount rate, and economists do not agree on this issue. Furthermore most economists do not even know enough moral philosophy to understand the issues involved (and the philosophers don’t understand enough economics), so there is no coherent consensus one way or the other.
2. The most current economists’ word is from Martin Weitzman; he argues that the very high costs of the worst-case scenarios suggest an insurance-based case for significant worry, more worry than Lomborg suggests. A Salon review notes:
Harvard’s Weitzman puts the current concerns of many economists
clearly. Based on the findings of the U.N. climate panel, he notes that
with roughly 3 percent probability, "we will [live in] a terra
incognita biosphere within a hundred years whose mass species
extinctions, radical alterations of natural environments, and other
extreme outdoor consequences of a different planet will have been
triggered by a geologically-instantaneous temperature change that is
significantly larger than what separates us now from past ice ages."
3. We spend too much time wondering about what is "most believable" and not enough energy worrying about the expected value of pending losses. The major critical reviews all nail Lomborg for neglecting this point. That said, the speed with which the negative reviews of the book move to the extreme cases is itself noteworthy, and it does not exactly correspond to the image presented to the public.
4. Given that the value of risk is context-specific, economists are bad at taking the value of insurance from market data in one setting, and then transplanting that estimate to another setting.
5. The strongest argument against significant action is not from cost-benefit analysis in the narrow sense, but simply that we are not very good at producing international public goods. Especially when it comes to extended, intertemporal collective action problems directed against small probability events, with unclear periodic feedback, and dealing with the Chinese and the Indians, who feel they have the right to pollute as much as we did, and also with the not-nearly-as-cooperative-as-they-might-sound Europeans (how’s that sentence for a mouthful?).
This argument sounds immoral and indeed perhaps is immoral — "we’re ruining things for others, yet if we tried to fix things we would ruin the fixing, so let’s do nothing." Yet I do not think this issue should be disregarded. If I can’t open up my computer, dissemble it, and then put it back together again, surely my repair plans should take that fact into account.
Here is a Jonathan Adler review of the book. Here is a very critical Tim Flannery review. Here are critical remarks from Chris Mooney. Here is the Salon review.
Remember that line from Dirty Harry?: "Do you feel lucky, kid?"
The economics of polygamy, continued
(Some) economists, every now and then, look for reasons why polygamy cannot be efficient. How about this?:
Over the last six years, hundreds of teenage boys have been expelled
or felt compelled to leave the polygamous settlement that straddles
Colorado City, Ariz., and Hildale, Utah.Disobedience is
usually the reason given for expulsion, but former sect members and
state legal officials say the exodus of males – the expulsion of girls
is rarer – also remedies a huge imbalance in the marriage market.
Members of the sect believe that to reach eternal salvation, men are
supposed to have at least three wives.
Here is the longer article, which has several interesting parts.
It’s monetary policy, not a morality play
Here is my now-on-Sundays NYT column, on the recent subprime crisis. Excerpt:
Nonetheless, Fed watchers should resist the tendency to put all
events into a simple or a morally plausible narrative. Monetary policy
is a largely technical subject, and its ups and downs don’t usually fit
into the kinds of emotion-laden stories that human beings apply to
daily life. The “us versus them” tag registers in human memory, but
monetary policy is not always or even usually about moral issues. As
Freud famously noted, sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.Financial
market news, which is by nature unpredictable, suffers from distortion
when it is crammed into the form of a simple story. Unlike most
well-structured narratives, the zigs and zags of daily profit and loss
defy simple categorization in terms of moral precepts.In the case of subprime mortgages, many investors did not foresee
the risk of collateralized debt securities. In response to this crisis,
the Fed has been trying to keep a steady hand and prevent a credit
crunch. We don’t yet know how well the Fed has succeeded, or how well
it could have done in the first place. And the storm has not yet fully
passed.Of course, such an account of recent financial history
sounds mundane and offers less human conflict. It’s less like the
stories that people have gossiped about for thousands of years and thus
will have less traction, even if it is a better guide to monetary
policy issues.
Here is commentary from Mark Thoma; he believes I should embrace government bail-outs more, without moralizing against them or citing moral hazard so much.
I might add that this desire to fit everything into a story lies behind recent blogosphere discussions of supply-side economics. Many Democrats need a story of the following form: "The Republican Party makes decisions in a systematically worse way — much worse way — than do the Democrats." (Otherwise they might be led to favor restrictions on state power, because Republican rule has not been pretty.) While I don’t assign p = 0 to this possibility (e.g., Clinton did govern better than Bush has), I think most of the Democratic bloggers give it a far higher p than it deserves, and they retreat into moral strictures to "be more progressive" when faced with contrary evidence. So a description like "the Republicans have complex motives, not all of which are noble, and end up making lots of mistakes" doesn’t, for them, sound different enough from the Democrats (whom they know) for comfort.
Fast, fast, fast
I ordered a book from Amazon yesterday morning. A few hours later I’m sitting at my computer and there is a knock at the door. I open the door and this girl is standing there and she says "Are you Alex Tabarrok?" I say yes and she hands me the book. My jaw just about hits the floor. I’m totally confused. The girl runs away laughing. Only later do I figure it out. I ordered from Amazon Marketplace. The seller just happened to live nearby and she brought the book over. Pretty cool.
Self-negating admissions
And call me naive, but I also think that Mugabe would not have pursued
his policies for this long if he had a better grasp of debt dynamics.
That’s Dani Rodrik.
You all can debate Mugabe if you want, I’m interested in the notion of a self-negating admission. By writing "…call me naive" Rodrik is showing a level of self-awareness which seems to be signaling he is not naive. A more direct example of such a construct would be "Call me unwilling to accept outside labels, but…" — the mere act of writing the statement is showing a willingness to accept at least one outside label (namely: unwilling to accept outside labels), which in turn means the writer cannot be unwilling to accept all such labels.
Call me unwilling to use self-negating admissions, but I wonder why writing "Call me naive…" should be more effective than simply writing "I am not naive." Or for that matter writing "I am naive." (What is the influence-maximizing claim to make about one’s own naivete?)
Don’t forget Dani Rodrik has a new book coming out: One Economics, Many Recipes. I don’t agree with all of it, but it is a valuable correction to the hubris of many other writers.
Library appreciation day
The world’s most beautiful libraries, amazing photos, and this picture of course is from Glasgow. Portugal and Brazil do surprisingly well in this category. But how about that Berlin library shown in Wings of Desire?
King’s Gambit
Former British champion Bill Hartston once observed, "Chess doesn’t drive people mad. It keeps mad people sane." Morphy and Fischer’s behavior became truly bizarre only after they retired from the game.
That is from Paul Hoffman’s King’s Gambit: A Son, A Father, and the World’s Most Dangerous Game. I loved this one, it’s one of the few great chess books. It’s also a tale of how Manhattan has changed, how sons become independent, the nature of psychological warfare, and why obsession never really dies. Note that author Hoffman is also editor of Discover magazine, which I enjoy as well.
The best sentence I read today
First, your model of the individual is very likely based on you.
You’ll find lots of contrarianism (for libertarians, that is, and note we should always be polite to contrarians) here and here. I also enjoyed this bit:
This is the other thing I don’t get about small government types. You
protest so vociferously that government takes choices away from you.
But a whole lot of choices are BORING. If I never once think about car
bumper safety standards for 25mph crashes, I will never miss it. I do
not want to carefully match my car safety standards to my most likely
driving patterns and save two grand in the process. I would not enjoy
that process. (Perhaps you would, and you would rather have the money.)
I’ve never been a comparison shopper or a meticulous consumer. Maybe my
model of the individual is too biased by my experience. But I don’t
want to figure out how much coliform bacteria I can tolerate on my
spinach, given my health……*I can hear you already: "But you are FORCING me to take that deal
too.". Yes. But right now our system FORCES me to comparison shop.
Either way, someone gets FORCED to do something, and I don’t see a
justice interest on one side or the other. Absent a justice interest,
we might as well just go with the system that creates the most utility
overall.
Stop whining
iPhone early adopters. (I’m one of them, though a virtuous one.) You may have heard, they just cut the price on iPhones. Get this:
“I just felt so used as a consumer,” he said. “They hyped up the iPhone for six months and built up our expectations, and then they grabbed our extra $200 and ran.”
Here is another guy:
“I feel totally screwed,” wrote one iPhone owner on the Unofficial Apple Weblog site. “My love affair with Apple is officially over.”
It is you people, you who resent Coase (1972), you people who induce wage and price stickiness and widen the Okun gap. You people, who don’t know what it means to sit back and enjoy your consumer surplus. You beasts!
And to think you are all carrying around these wonderful icons of modernity in your pockets…
AAARRRGGGHH!
(I thank a loyal MR reader for the pointer. Please note this post was published from my iPhone.)
*The Economist* reviews Discover Your Inner Economist
Here is the link, excerpt:
It stands apart from its predecessors by making its revelations not so
much about the way the world works as about the way we ourselves work
(and play) and how we can take practical steps to do both better.
Or:
The version of economics advanced here has nothing to do with algebra
or interest rates. It is economics in Ludwig von Mises’s formulation of
a “logic of choice”.
Thanks to numerous loyal MR readers for the pointer.
Cheaper credit, more bankruptcies
Personal bankruptcies in the United States have increased dramatically,
rising from 1.4 per thousand working age population in 1970 to 8.5 in
2002. We use a heterogeneous agent life-cycle model with competitive
financial intermediaries who can observe households’ earnings, age and
current asset holdings to evaluate several commonly offered
explanations. We find that increased uncertainty (income shocks,
expense uncertainty) cannot quantitatively account for the rise in
bankruptcies. Instead, the rise in filings appears to mainly reflect
changes in the credit market environment. We find that credit market
innovations which cause a decrease in the transactions cost of lending
and a decline in the cost of bankruptcy can largely accounting for the
rise in consumer bankruptcy. We also argue that the abolition of usury
laws and other legal changes are unimportant.
Here is the paper. Here are non-gated versions.
Finishing *A Farewell to Alms*
We’ll do the final segment next Wednesday, also prepare your general thoughts on the book as a whole. Like Arnold Kling, I’ve been very happy with the experiment and we’ll do another one; it is important to do just the right book.

