China fact of the day

estimate China’s budget deficit – including local govt borrowing – at close to 10% of GDP in 2014

Source here.


Word from the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board is keep them coming!

It was a really bad idea last year to arrest political opponents, except from the standpoint of someone selling an overpriced house on the west coast.

The next surprise statistic will be that the Chinese economy actually shrunk

I see another Dubai here with China. An authoritarian, state-driven economy runs out of steam...for a while...and the comes back (like Dubai has). I will have fun bashing China though, for a while...

Current U.S. budget deficit is ~3% of GDP

Current U.S. national debt is 102% of GDP

Paper tiger?

How will President Trump change this?

Even larger than Greece's budget deficit? Uh-oh ....

Watch the reserves.

China pretends to operate like a modern country but there's little real separation of powers. They'll try to keep their national Ponzi scheme going at all costs. Eventually if they cannot allocate efficiently enough they will run out of hard currency. Then will come high inflation, capital seizures, capital flight, price controls. shortages, basically all the fun we've seen in Venezuela but on a much larger scale.

If it comes to mass revolt, we've seen that outcomes become highly fluid and extremely contingent on a few decisions. The tanks could enter the streets and butcher Chinese protesters and the place could become even more of a police state, or there could be elections and the beginning of a new liberal democratic tradition.

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