Dalibor Rohac had a new and important book just out — Towards an Imperfect Union: A Conservative Case for the European Union, obviously of great relevance to the Brexit debates. Here is the book’s home page, here is the publisher’s home page for the book.
My own view is this: if the United Kingdom could simply press a button and obtain the current status of Canada, via-a-vis the EU, probably they should do so. But they cannot, and in some issues, as with Catalonian independence, the path is everything. I’ve read through much of the Treasury report, and I believe it underestimates the economic cost of Brexit. Were Brexit to happen, probably the UK would see a major recession, and possibly a financial crisis, and there is even a chance significant parts of the EU could unravel in response. And for what gain? The country would not be able to boost living standards through EU immigration cuts. Building new trade agreements would take a long time and in few of the most important cases would the UK hold most of the bargaining power. Security issues probably would worsen.
Even if the Brexit vote fails, it remaining on the table as a live option, as would result from a close vote, would dampen investment in the UK. The best way forward is for the UK to swallow its pride and admit the whole referendum idea was a mistake by voting unanimously to stay. No one would take the unanimity vote as a sincere reflection of preference, but best not to know the true state of public opinion on this one!
I sometimes call Brexit “the Donald Trump of England” — don’t be fooled!