If I were a Muslim, would I be a Shiite or a Sunni?
But now you all know my love of counterfactuals. Vali Nasr writes:
…what separates Shiism from Sunnism is not so much the divergences in practice as the spirit in which Islam is interpreted. First, whereas Sunnism took shape around belief in the writ of the majority and the legitimating power of communal consensus. Shias do not put much stock in majority opinion in matters of religion. Truth is vested not in the community of believers but in the virtuous leadership of the Prophet and the descendents. Whereas Sunnis have always placed greatest emphasis on the Islamic message, Shias have also underscored the importance of the vehicle for that message. Some have explained this difference by saying that Sunnis revere the Prophet because he relayed the Quran to Muslims, whereas Shias reverse the Quran because the Prophet relayed it [TC: to this non-specialist, this seems like an exaggeration of the difference on the Shiite side; here comes the qualifier though…]. Although most Shias stop short of holding such a view, there is no doubt that more extreme Shias have subscribed to it, and that Shiism places great emphasis on the prophetic function in tandem with the Islamic message.
That is from Vali Nasr’s The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam Will Shape the Future. This is the most informative non-fiction book I have read in at least a month; I learned something — or at least thought I did — from every page.
Addendum: Here is a good article on Islam and capitalism in Turkey.
Interview with Guillermo Calvo
From the Richmond Fed, the focus is Latin America. Here is one insightful bit of many:
RF: What is your opinion of Hernando de Soto’s The
Other Path? What lessons can policymakers in Latin
America take from that book?Calvo: The main lesson is that regulations must be
simplified as much as possible in order to encourage the development
of the formal sector and, thus, most likely enhance the
pace of technical progress. However, I am skeptical that a major
overhaul of government regulations will have a major effect in
the short or medium term. The reason is that the informal sector
strongly relies on tax evasion and, unless you implement a
major tax moratorium – accompanied by substantially lowered
tax rates –firms are likely not to move to the formal sector,
even if all the red tape is eliminated. Moreover, a moratorium is
likely to have detrimental moral hazard implications.
My favorite things Indonesian
No, I am not there, but one of the loyal — and an MIT grad student at that — made a special request for this topic…
New jobs for economists
Michael Schwartz [my link] earned an economics doctorate from Stanford Univeristy before spending five years as an assistant profesor of microeconomics at Harvard University. His research papers include "Synchronization under Uncertainty."
These days, Mr. Schwartz is thinking about how to use economics to save attractive women from unwanted solicitations on an Internet dating site [TC: he needs to confer with Miss Passey]. One idea employs the concept of "scarcity," rationing the number of messages each lothario can send. Another uses full disclosure, by displaying how many people a suitor has already approached.
…A person familiar with the matter says Yahoo aims to build a team of more than a dozen economists.
…Mr. Schwartz…[is] currently writing a research paper about economic markets where one side of a potential transaction is eager to profess its preference for the other side, as is often the case with hiring and online dating. The unequal relationship make such markets complicated and unpredictable.
That is from today’s Wall Street Journal, p.1, "Hoping to Overtake its Rivals, Yahoo Stocks Up on the Academics."
Which European interventions have been the real problems?
Gayle Allard and the ever-interesting Peter Lindert write:
How have labor market institutions and welfare-state transfers affected
jobs and productivity in Western Europe, relative to industrialized
Pacific Rim countries? Orthodox criticisms of European government
institutions are right in some cases and wrong in others. Protectionist
labor-market policies such as employee protection laws seem to have
become more costly since about 1980, not through overall employment
effects, but through the net human-capital cost of protecting senior
male workers at the expense of women and youth. Product-market
regulations in core sectors may also have reduced GDP, though here the
evidence is less robust. By contrast, high general tax levels have shed
the negative influence they might have had in the 1960s and 1970s.
Similarly, other institutions closer to the core of the welfare state
have caused no net harm to European jobs and growth. The welfare
state’s tax-based social transfers and coordinated wage bargaining have
not harmed either employment or GDP. Even unemployment benefits do not
have robustly negative effects.
These are underexplored but not easy to explore questions; here is the paper.
I would feel better if Ireland were removed from the data set, since a booming economy can afford many sins. After this adjustment, coordinated bargaining wouldn’t look as good. And when we calculate average productivity, should not the unemployed count for "zero productivity," or even negative, in the appropriate measure? I believe that tax rates matter, but only at particular thresholds.
I also would like to argue the following: "Don’t think we can pick and choose the egalitarian interventions which turn up as the very best in econometric studies. We are unlikely to know in advance which policies are the least harmful and politics is even less likely to turn those proposals into legislation."
But would I be committing The Libertarian Vice?
Claims you all can laugh at
Some of the Irish claim to have invented a perpetual motion machine.
As a young child I read this was impossible, but frankly I’ve long been convinced of the contrary. The universe itself seemed like a counterexample. It goes and goes and goes and goes. Lots of stuff happens. Stars explode, galaxies crash, planets get downgraded, etc. Where does a vacuum get its energy from anyway? And isn’t the "cosmological constant" a big free push?
Now perhaps our universe is not truly "perpetual." Or perhaps it involves "no net expenditure of energy." I’ve heard it called "a free lunch," through some kind of quantum effect and subsequent inflation.
But still, the universe, as a perpetual motion machine, seems to me like a good enough version of what people have been looking for. (Imagine your venture capital pitch: "Well, it’s not as Big or as Important as The Universe, but it does operate according to the same physical laws…") The universe was produced by some process, and perhaps a smaller and more local version of the idea is possible. Or does it come only in one size? Well…I’d better stop before I make any more scientific blunders…
I can’t get over the idea there is a free lunch floating around out there. Perhaps I read too much Julian Simon in my formative years.
Addendum: Here are the seven warning signs of bogus science.
Around the web
1. Contra Jared Diamond, on Easter Island and environmental collapse.
2. Who Pays the Corporate Income Tax?
3. Why CDs sound bad, from Bob Dylan, whose new CD is out next Tuesday.
4. Game theory and gambling in Paraguay: borrowing a page from Thomas Schelling.
5. Japanese markets in everything.
Markets in everything, Mexican edition
Here is a nice, relaxing vacation idea for my wife:
The 20 or so people fleeing the Border Patrol aren’t undocumented immigrants – they’re tourists about 700 miles from the border. Most are well-heeled professionals more likely to travel to the United States in an airplane than on foot.
They’ve each paid 150 pesos – about $15 – for what is perhaps Mexico’s strangest tourist attraction: A night as an illegal immigrant crossing the Rio Grande.
Advertising for the mock journey, which takes place at a nature park in the central state of Hidalgo, tells the pretend immigrants to "Make fun of the Border Patrol!" and to "Cross the Border as an Extreme Sport!"
As craven as the advertising sounds, the organizers say they are trying to build empathy for migrants by putting people in their shoes.
Here is the full story. Here is an interesting recent article on sympathy.
Big box sets
Usually I resist buying Big Box Sets. I never did much with my 9-CD box of Stax music, for instance. The Mar-Keys are good but rarely my first choice in the morning. Otis Redding I already knew.
But surely nominal values should not matter (…tell that to those guys are arguing whether Pluto should be a "planet," a "pluton," or a mid-sized boulder.) Why is buying a Big Box Set different from buying a bunch of individual CDs over time?
There is a neuroeconomics critique of Big Box Sets. So much of the pleasure of a purchase lies in the anticipation of the buy rather than the having. The anticipatory pleasure of a Big Box Set, no matter how large, is not so much greater than the anticipatory pleasure from a single CD. Yet once you own a large box it sits around. You can’t listen to the CDs all at once. They start to feel "stale," and then you go out and want that anticipatory fix again. Bryan Caplan aside, the anticipatory pleasure of "listening to the seventh CD in the box" is somehow not the same. So you buy some more CDs. The Big Box Set sits dormant.
If it is a really big box, you can’t even look forward to the pleasure of "finishing it off," and consigning it to the basement where probably it belongs.
I have just bought Miles Davis’s 20-CD box "Live at Montreaux", used I might add. These CDs override all of the strictures against Big Box Sets.
This is fortunate because in my future lies the eight-CD Miles Davis Live at the Plugged Nickel and the 6-CD Miles Davis and Gil Evans.
The Music of Islam is another worthwhile 20-CD set. And I would like to buy a 20-CD box of Fela Kuti, if they put one out.
Here is my previous post How Quickly Should I Go Through My Stock of Battlestar Galactica?
The Female Brain
New mothers lose an average of seven hundred hours of sleep in the first year postpartum.
…In one study, mother rats were given the opportunity to press a bar and get a squirt of cocaine or press a bar and get a rat pup to suck their nipples…Those oxytocin squirts in the brain outscored a snort of cocaine every time.
Both are from the new and noteworthy The Female Brain, by Louann Brizendine. Here is a very brief (and somewhat skewed in the direction of politically correct) summary. Here is more. Here is a Deborah Tannen review.
There are way way way too many books on gender differences. Most of them just string together the usual well-known templates, but I read every page of this one with interest. The best parts focus on the role of hormones.
Not everyone will appreciate the punchy style — "There’s a new reality brewing in Sylvia’s brain, and it’s a take-no-prisoners view" — but everyone who wants to marry or have kids should read this book.
Pulled from the comments on Alex
The Bartels result may be just showing that in an economy when
average incomes are are rising rapidly, the low income groups benefit
more than the higher income groups. Since WWII, with the exception of
Eisenhower, no Republican was president when the average income was
rising rapidly.
Here is the link for a relevant graph. Here is a graph of the Bartels result. And here is Greg Mankiw on inequality and unions, in case you missed it, perhaps Greg’s best post so far.
The 20 best songs of the 1960s
Here is a list from Pitchfork; the Beach Boys’ "God Only Knows" takes first place. The selections are excellent (head to iTunes), but I would have opted for the Beatles’ "Rain" and the Byrds’ "Eight Miles High." You’ll find links to their top 200 picks as well.
Daniel Levitin’s This is Your Brain on Music: The Science of a Human Obsession — is a new book on how music affects our brains. Here is an introduction to the book.
Addendum: Here is an interview with Levitin.
Must-see photo sequence
10 Things You Shouldn’t Buy New
A MSN.com article lists the following:
1. Books
2. DVDs and CDs
3. Little kids’ toys
4. Jewelry (TC: Uh-Oh)
5. Sports equipment
6. Cars
7. Software and console games
8. Office furniture
9. Timeshares
10. Handtools
I agree except for numbers four and six, but on four I wish I could agree. The common feature of the argument seems to be that we can do without "the gloss of the new" by a mere act of will.
But don’t buy helmets, laptops, wet suits, or vacuum cleaners used, they often have hidden damage. They forgot to list underwear.
Addendum: As long as we are on the topic of "ten," here is Guy Kawasaki’s "Ten Things They Should Teach You in School," recommended.
The best sentence I read today
On average, taller people earn more because they are smarter.